blonde poker forum

While at a casino on Friday night my decision when faced with the above cards was queried by the guy next to me. He thought he was being helpful with his advice, but I didn't agree with his recommendation.
I also refrained from saying "don't you know who I am  rotflmfao"
Before revealing my views on this, what would you do, place your vote and any views.

Well I'd have two cards to start with

The maths say hit.

aye, basic strategy.

I can't see any cards

Oops, got it now, stand

Just to be awkward  ;goodvevil;

I have voted hit...But i must say that on many occasions I stick

Just for Red dog

  8d 4c

Dealer has

 2d

 :redcard:

LOL Dewi... have you edited that post ..lolol :D

stand.

dealer hits a 10.

depending on how your card counting has been going....

Basic strategy regardless of any count says stand.

Card please...

This all depends on what the running count is at the time.
To gain an advantage in Blackjack which is a game that can be beaten.
opinion does not matter there are rules you either stand/split/double or take a card
to be a winner in Blackjack you need to lose less with poor hands there are situations
where you would hit 12 v the dealer 6. Likewise there are times when you would stand
on 14 v a dealer 10.

DO NOT EVER WORRY ABOUT OTHERS PLAYERS AT THE TABLE IT DOES NOT MATTER

Buy a book called the moneyspinners Author Jaquesblack published by Faber&Faber

Hope this helps

Regards

JAG

Hit every single time regardless of any count and I don't want to know what happened next.

i would hit all day

I think casinos were made to have the BS on tables to help people to lose slower


regards

JAG

You can take cards onto the tables in Vegas, that's why they sell em in the gift shops for a buck :)

Regardless of how you perceive it's usefulness, basic strategy, has it's place.

I generally take an idiot savant with me:)

Looks like the majority are backing me up as I took a card. I hate doing the wrong thing as it can mess the cards up for the rest of the table, but was convinced that taking a card was the right option. Of course I hit
 Ts
A few hands later I had the same scenario again and took a card, again came a face card  ;reallyamsorry;

You were correct to hit. You should only stand here if your counting and have a true count of 6 or more.

This is true for some counts however there are very good counts which would say stay at +2 this all depends which count you use.

Then again since the introduction of Shuffling Machines were all doomed.

i stand all day here.

it works for me!

Without a count, I'm with tightend, I stand all day on this too.

Some of mere mortals can't count :) We have to use basic strategy!

I'd stand everytime, you can hit and go bust if you get a 10 so why risk it. Especially with the dealer having a 2 (there more likely to go bust with a 2) .

That's a definite stand here. Read any BJ Strategy and they will tell u to stand. Why are people saying too hit? Makes no sense, more chance of hittin a 10 than anything else, if dealer was showing a 7/8/9/10/J/Q/K/A then you would hit but not when he's showing a 2. He's more likely to go bust with a low card in this situation! And who cares about the other people at the table, you're playing for yourself not a team effort.

EvilSteve

You are right Basic strategy is stand on 12v2 likewise it always says split 88v Dealer A at all times if you stick to
basic Strategy you will lose slower than just using gut feeling. if you are a good blackjack player you
will know what to do and when to do it opinion will not come into it. So more often than not you 
will be hitting 12 v 2 to become a winner at Blackjack.A similar % of the time would be staying on
16 v Dealer 10 (BS says alwaystake a card) it's just down to the maths   

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/cgi-bin/bjbse.cgi

Basic strategy varies slightly according to the variation of blackjack that your playing.

It is however nearly always correct to hit 12 against a 10.

Sorry, this is better

http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bjbse.php

The maths also say don't play blackjak.


Never worry about this, taking the wrong card could also sort the table out. It's just that no-one will notice when this happens.


Heard a great blackjack story once. How's this for messing up a table?

In an Aberdeen casino £1 minimum/£100 maximum blackjack table on a Friday night 5 crazy gamblers of mostly asian origin and my pal were at the table. The 5 asains had large bets ranging from £50 to £100 on about 6 boxes. My pal was in the anchor seat and betting £1 every hand, trying to chat up the dealer in the process.

The dealer was showing a  9s, our hero in the anchor seat had  7c 2h. With the big bets in the other boxes there was a barrage of splitting, double-downing etc and loads of chips went on the table. They all finished with 17 or 18 totals.

My pals turn with his 9 total. "Stick" he says "I'll let you have the picture"

"WHAT!" said the table "You can't do that"
"Is that even allowed?"
"You have to take a card on a 9" etc

"It's my £1, I can do what I like" says my pal. "I want the lovely lady here to get the picture"

A floorman is called over and rules that if the player who bet the £1 wants to stick on a nine then he can stick on nine. He does so, dealer draws a  Kh to make 19 and the house wins all the bets.

All hell breaks loose. Every player leaves the table in disgust, apart from our hero who bets another £1 and continues his inane chatter to the young lady dealer, it doesn't last long as she has to be taken off the table in a giggle fit when the next two cards in the shoe turn out to be a  6d and an  8d.

That wasn't the question

Good point, well made.

I'll get me coat...

Despite reading the question wrong I still got the answer right!

Blackjack player-----mug punter! >:?

Dund... Ohh I dunno :)

Sometimes it works..

I once tried the version of Blackjack where you can see both of the dealers cards. Thought to myself easy money and sure they were thinking the same thing and promptly took my money. Can't remember all the rules, but know you had to beat the dealer, ie no push for a tie. Sure there is a strategy for this version but mine was to not play again.

I read in one of the Yongsters thread about funding for his new club, that a single £5 blackjack table will bring in £350,000 a year (after paying the dealers), not to many winners out of that lot I think.

Well, there's 38 here who would have lost their fiver to the house <g>

Heid, you need to bin whatever it is you're reading that from.  Basic strategy is to hit here against a dealer's 2 or 3.

BTW, the best basic strategy grid around is at http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack, along with any other maths and basic strategy you wish to look at for just about any casino game (ignoring the 100% correct strategy of not playing them).

Sheriff

Noo Noo Noo !

Anything under a 6 and I am standing :)

Mr Riff ... wizard of odds is a great site.. but come on .. he has to get more cards to get to his 17, the chances of him busting are much higher with him having a 2!


Heid
xx

Fatman and tank are right. I spent a few hours in the casino the other day. Came out, check my cash. Sure enough I'd broke even. Well, I was actually down £5 if you include travel. I sat there all night, didn't play one game, didnt buy one drink. 100% non loosing strategy. I was bored out of my mind however.... Was contemplating suicide, aside from making a few people very happy, I decided it a -EV situation if I died. I think I'm letting EV and mathematical correctness rule my life.

Perhaps you should rename this 'Heidi Strategy'.  Personally, I'll just stick to the option that has the best chance of winning!  ;topofclass;

Riffman

Heidi Strategy?

Hmm it has a ring to it :)

Even the strategy of erring on the side of caution sounds like me!

Jeez, I'm boring and mathematically incorrect now!

One of those is certainly right!

I'm not convinced!

Heid
xx

Stand Stand Stand

Correct play everytime but u know that.
Even though a 2 is an evil card for the dealer, if u start hitting against 2 then u may aswell hit against 3,4,5 and u know what will happen u just made the odds even better for the casino  >:?

Well..this is what I thought....

Now I'm even more confused!

I'm interested as to why people think it's good to hit a 12 when the dealer shows a 2.  Regardless of count.

Away from that debate, the only way to never lose at Blackjack is to play on-line and never use your own money.  If you're a grindy type of poker player then you'll have no trouble making some pocket money from Blackjack.  I have for a few years now and have a nice collection of "go away, bonus abuser" emails from several places.

Was going to vote "sit down" but that didnt appear as an option. Monkeys dont like standing for too long, our legs aren't that strong.

I did start watching a program on the poker channel by some bloke from what looked like the late 70's or early 80's which was all about profitable blackjack play but as i have never played the game as you usually only ever win your money back (occasionally get 3 to 2 for a blackjack) i figured there were more profitable games out there to play.

I changed channels after watching for about 5 minutes otherwise i might have been able to help....... sorry :'(

Anything you read, that has any authority, will tell you to hit.

Resources have even been posted on this thread.

Mathematically it is close, but definate, HIT!

The difference in strategy for upcards of 2 and 3 relate to the relative probabilities of the dealer busting/not busting.  With 2's and 3's there are more ways for him to avoid busting than with totals of 4 and above.

For example, with a 2 showing, the dealer's 'safe' range is a total of 15-19.  Consequently, the only way he busts in 2 cards is to hit runner runner 10's (as in Tens and paint cards).  The only other way he can bust is to do so in more than 2 cards.  Statistically there are more ways for the dealer to not bust than there are to bust.  Consequently, its not a safe strategy to stick on 12 and hope he busts as the odds are against you.

The reason the strategy flips at a total of 4 is that this is where the relative probabilities 'flip over'.  As the dealers total increases from 2 to 6 there are increasing numbers of ways for him to bust compared for him to hit safe totals.  Once he reaches an upcard of 7 the odds favour him once more as he can now reach 17 in one card.  Consequently, there are far more combinations of cards which are now favourable to the player on totals of 4-6.

The other factor in the decision is your own total, as you have to act first.  On a total of 12 there are only the 10's that cause you to bust so there are plenty of safe cards for you to hit.  However, on 13 through to 16 there are increasing numbers of bad cards.  This is why the basic strategy decision to hit on 12 is different compared to that to stand on 13-16.  To win you first have to avoid busting on your draw and then have the dealer bust afterwards.

Basic strategy was derived from simulations being done over millions of hands and it simply lists the best statistical option (in Blackjack there is always a mathematically correct decision).  In some cases the 'best' decision is the one which loses least money as some scenarios are unfavourable to the player, as is the case here.  However, the fact is that you simply have a better expectation here by hitting than you do by standing.

Sheriff

But I use basic basic strategy<g>

I do see what you are saying, but in the heat of the moment, it is safest to stand.

Anything under a 6 and I'm waving over my cards.

Sigh

Thanks for reply Sheriff. I am convinced more than ever.
Hit.

If you are going to publish Heidi Strategy you need to make it look sufficiently complicated and impressive.

How about 'Anything under a 6 and I'm waving over my cards, except on Thursdays, a full moon or if the dealer has a moustache (especially so if female), in which case hit due to bad karma.'  :)up

Sheriff

What about if I just say that I don't play unless I am with Rainman, and if he's not there I just play 3 card poker?

Failing that, if in Vegas 25c 9/6 ddb VP will do me just fine :)

Only 98.98% payback for 9/6 DDB I'm afraid.  Much better looking out for the mythical 10/6 version at 100.06%!

Sheriff

I know where there are 10/6, but I aint telling you :)

Hmmm, you know where 10/6 is but you choose to play 9/6!  Heidi VP Strategy is right up there with the Blackjack version then!   >:?

Sheriff

10/6 is a dollar though :)

I am a quarter kinda gal :)

Most players when going to a casino, have an amount in their mind that they are willing to spend (lost already :D) and from the casino games selection, I choose BJ every time and it's 99.5 basic strategy return percentage.

What makes me stand is the fact many cards are not going to improve my hand (to tie with or beat the dealer should he not bust) and many cards are going to bust me.

Bust cards: T,J,Q,K (over 21)
Non-improvers: 2,3,4,A (16 and below)
Hand improvers: 5,6,7,8,9 (17 - 21)

8 types of crap or bust cards vrs 5 types good cards, the 5 card is just about good as it's a chop at best if the dealer doesn't bust.

How many times will you take a card and still have a crap hand (13 - 16) ?  In which case it was pointless to take a card as you still need the dealer to bust out.
How many times will you take a card and bust out ?
How many times will you hit 17 - 21 for a strong/winning hand ?

No count = no card for me.

Interesting question though.

I've been looking around for the EV calculations in both cases.  I'm surprised to discover that it isn't even close!  EV(Hit) = -25.4%, EV(Stand) = -29.2%

So you give up almost 4p on every £1 you wager making this decision!

Source article is here: here (http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/articles/22472.html)

Out of interest, this table gives the actual EV for the Basic Strategy (i.e. best) play in each case.  It just highlights how many of them are negative expectation plays.

Table (http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/bjapx5.html)

Sheriff

 ;iagree;

By taking a card you increase your chances of busting, Blackjack is a numbers game not a feel game u go with the odds everytime, vary your bet and you have chance.

Lot's of people say Blackjack is a 99.5% return game to play. It won't be 99.5% in the UK casinos as two rules increase the house edge somewhat.

i) It is correct to double on soft totals of 13 and 14 against a dealers 5 or 6. On soft 15 or 16 against the dealers 4, 5 or 6. And if you have soft 17 or 18 you should be doubling down against a dealers 3,4,5 or 6.
You can only double down on 9,10 or 11 in the UK so give up some edge here.

ii) When the dealer has an Ace up, he/she doesn't check for blackjack immediately like in Vegas. This gives you a chance to split/double-down and lose more when the dealer does have a blackjack than you would otherwise.

Does anyone know the true % house edge from UK casino blackjack?

Well, I worked 4 years total at gala casino: Wolverhampton, Leeds and Bradford and most of the senior inspectors, pit bosses and managers said that it is 99.5% and had no objection of me advertising this percentage to the punters. Different matter is, whether single one of them would say that it's a fact and full stop.

Not sure who you are agreeing with from your comments, BigArmo, but you quoted MrMoves so I assume its him.

If so, then you're using the equivalent argument to trying to win the most pots in a game of poker, not the most money.

Sheriff

WizardofOdds quotes the house edge as 0.623%

Sheriff