blonde poker forum

We open at t100 to 325 in cut off. Spanish guy who seems weird calls btn.

We cbet who qd Jh 3h to 425, he makes it 1.3, we go 3.2 and he try's to make it 5k but misclicked and calls and seems angry he can't raise.

I c/call 5k on the turn which is 4c

River is 6h and e snap throws his stack over the line. So 22k to call into 17ish

Is he really wanting to 4vet the flop with any flush?????

Is he shoving jj/33 for value without thinking?

Thoughts pls????

We e black queens and this is 8 hands into day 1

My thoughts: Could the 'seeming angry' be a fake tell. ie, wants you to think he has a made hand when he is actually drawing.
I would expect him to be 3 betting pre with jj or kk and probably AQs+ too.
To me, the only hand that makes any sense for villian, which actually beats you, is Kh Qh or the nut flush.
I would struggle to fold here, but i do think that a FOLD is the correct choice.
 I think the nut flush certainly can't be ruled out. I guess a lot depends on your reads of villian. Although he seems weird, would he really be jamming into a flushing board with a not top set, against a player who's hand seems to be unde-repped (ie could have a flush draw).
As villian has position here, surely here would just check behind with most of his range of decent, but not nut, made hands?
If he was so eager to 5-bet the flop, could he really show up with a bluff on the river? I personally dont think so.

my experience of spanish players is that they would be tilted if for whatever reason they cant get all in with Ak/Aq/KQ/KThh here otf

that's nothing against spanish players ofc, just that in my personal experience recreational players from spain of all levels of ability play with far more emphasis on accumulating chips than protecting their stack at all times. which is a large difference in style to most english players, again just imo

for tikay's benefit ofc :D ^^

c/shove turn vs spanish fish obv

This.  Think you have owned yourself here met.  Right now am folding then kicking myself for the turn

Checj shove ott is 22k more ie 220bbs more.  If the 8k otf counts then vv c/shove turn. Think it's just a bit too much here.

Anything 5 orbits late he overshoved ricer with flush so guess its tribute we some how found a hero fold.

this really a hero fold? the most obvious draw gets in and he still wants to get 220 bigs in?

Seems like its a definite fold, tilting though.

thing to remember is that you double to 60k your equity doesn't double, lets say you have 100% roi your equity to start the hand is 10k it DEFO doesn't increase to 20k when you call and get shown JJ or some spazzy bluff. You make a couple of thousand euros prolly

You call he has a flush, gg 10,000 euro's equity it's now worth 0 (assuming we're out yh?) whereas we fold, we still have 200+ bigs and I'd say our equity is barely reduced to 9500 imo, prolly you lose like 100 euros. There is just abso no need to take the risk OTR, I know some MTT sicko's who would just flat the flop raise and call down most runouts (obv raising the river if they have the nuts/have an obv value raise) because getting it in on the flop prolly ISN'T profitable on this texture at this stage of this tournament unless he has QJ, JJ or 33 in which case it's obvious incredibly profitable (!)

Franky always tells me busting in early levels of an EPT is completely inexcusable with the exception of ridic coolers.

Still raise the turn though surely? Seems criminal not to whilst we still have the nuts and some rivers may scare him off. Agree it's bad to get it in on the flop.

If he 4vets the flop we have to jan right?

What would your turn siZibg be Alex?

he has 22k more after betting 5k right?

So make it 11k then jam river for 16k?

IDK, I think it's bad to 3bet the flop

Not really sure why we'd check the turn, think betting the turn is better than c/r.

Really? Why do you ever see him r/f?

I mean actually it obviously cant be bad. I just don't think it's THE best play, I think calling is the best play (I think)

actually, we're OOP aren't we.

Yh feel like raising flop is FTW.

I think you played the hand great actually lol

river simple fold imo wp nh glgl today :-)

If villain is steaming that he didn't get to raise the flop why would we want to take such a passive line on turn with the nuts ?

problem with betting the turn is that most draws now will often just call, we don't know if the steam for not being able to raise is genuine or not either, it's all odd.

Checking seems better than betting, I don't know why people think not raising is a mistake calling seems fine to me.

Think if he really is tilted at how the flop played out he could definitely just tilt jam the turn with his draws. If we c/r the turn after he gave the impression he wanted to 4b the flop even the biggest fish is going to know we are super strong.

Unless he's an abs maniac what is he wanting to 4b this flop with, 33, JJ, KThh, T9hh maybe AT and AKhh. Guess he could be rofling around with Axhh.

If we believe he really is tilted then surely we should be trying to get as many chippies as possible in on the turn not taking the most conservative line ?

this, dont see him bluffing river on too many good cards but do see him betcalling turn with some big combodraws and some weird hands.


As played his river timing is pretty crucial, but dont think im folding.

If we agree that

a) his 'attempt to 4b the flop' range is sets and combo draws
b) he bets his combo draws when checked to on the turn a reasonable %age of the time and sometimes calls a jam with them
c) he isn't going to bluff the river if he misses

Then its a clear c/jam turn

He isn't going to hero fold sets, he MIGHT hero fold QJ but thats obv only one combo. If he folds a combo draw thats a win for us because we can't win any more chips on the river if he isn't going to bluff. I'm happy to be convinced that c/raise turn non all-in is better, would have to do some maths though. If he's always calling a c/r to like 14k then it could have better expectation that c/jam but obv with the jam he doesn't have to call as often for jamming to still be better. If you think that there is a chance that he calls a jam with KThh/T9hh then c/jam is clearly going to be best imo. If he is never calling a jam with those hands then there will be an optimal betsize. Its around 14kish.

Thats all bollocks if my assigned range of 33/JJ/combo draws is off or if he's gunna bluff river but I think my assumptions are pretty reasonable.

c/c turn would be cool if this was PLO, or we had information to suggest that he would bluff the river but I doubt we can make that assumption vs rando spanish guy even if he does seems pretty tilted. Stacks are also pretty awkward on the river for him to bluff. I doubt a random guy wants to bet half of his remaining stack or more as a bluff in a 10k. Could be wrong on that though, it is Spain after all.

I don't think I'd ever bet here given that its pretty clear how absurdly strong his range is at this point. Doubt he's pulling some sick reverse tell in orbit one.

Cliffs: c/jam > c/raise > c/c imo

Edit: as played pretty quick river fold imo. Even if he always jams JJ/33 (which is debateable) its probably close but I don't think he's always doing that so I fold pretty quick.