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PokerStars Hand #85270159040: Tournament #601641703, €91+€9 EUR Hold'em No Limit - Level I (25/50) - 2012/08/26 19:10:23 WET [2012/08/26 14:10:23 ET]
Table '601641703 3' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 1: vinity73 (10075 in chips)
Seat 2: HOOOOVES (10228 in chips)
Seat 3: Sr Croissant (9850 in chips)
Seat 4: HERO (9811 in chips)
Seat 5: MAKAN_DAN (10000 in chips)
Seat 6: xLynch84x (10250 in chips)
Seat 7: Think4aWhile (9700 in chips)
Seat 8: Rudeboy34 (10036 in chips)
Seat 9: 19hammo19 (10225 in chips)
Rudeboy34: posts small blind 25
19hammo19: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Ks Js]
vinity73: calls 50
HOOOOVES: folds
Sr Croissant has timed out
Sr Croissant: folds
Sr Croissant is sitting out
HERO: raises 150 to 200
MAKAN_DAN: folds
xLynch84x: folds
Sr Croissant has returned
Think4aWhile: folds
Rudeboy34: folds
19hammo19: folds
vinity73: calls 150
*** FLOP *** [As 7s 2d]
vinity73: checks
HERO: bets 285
vinity73: calls 285
*** TURN *** [As 7s 2d] [Jd]
vinity73: checks
HERO: checks
*** RIVER *** [As 7s 2d Jd] [Jh]
vinity73: bets 300
HERO: raises 977 to 1277
vinity73: raises 1473 to 2750


HERO?!

I've gone through all the options in my head, and i just don't know.

call you only lose to boats, people do really stupid things on sundays, on french sites and in general

Cawl

Call, dont play the french site.

But pretty sure we are good, dont wanna shove incase we got pwnd :P

Fold

First instinct is that its pretty close between call and 4bet, but I probably just call in game

What Jack does he have? J7? I mean call but 4bet certainly looks adventurous

Surprised to see so many 'call' responses.  I tanked for over 90 secs on this one, like I can't beat a single value hand.  pretty sure most sets c/r flop or turn, and don't see many inferior flush draws bet/three betting the river as a bluff.  So I mean the only hands I beat are a complete air ball, or an inferior jack.  But what jack? I have Js, so no Js-X combos are in his range, and I don't see how any other jack that hasn't made a full house gets to the river.

Feasible that he MAY way overvalue AK, AQ, but I don't see it from a passive opponent tbh.

Dan, are you suggesting 4b as a bluff as we can have AJ, AA but it's harder for him to?  I'm assuming he's never folding 7's full or 2's full (this is .fr afterall).

he's limp/called p/f I dont think he ever just c/c 22 or 77 otf, doesnt have J2 I don't think, J7s a possibility cant see J7o even on .fr so only  7c Jc and  7h Jh. AJs and offsuit obv pretty possible but it has to be  Jc Ahrt,  Jc Ac,  Jc Ad so in reality you only actually lose to 5 combo's. Obv it's always possible to be shown J2 J7o 22 77 but i really couldn't blame you for discounting those hands as unlikely. 4betting seems too ambitious for me given that he can barely have any J*'s, most of the time just calls Ax and therefore is prolly just spazzing about with missed spades (middle SC's are a pretty common hand to see limp/called by weak opponents in these type of comps i think) or has J7/AJ so I just call and think there isn't much other play personally.

And considering turning this hand into a bluff in this tournament is complete suicide.

Folding really doesn't seem great.

Yeh agree with this, the thought of 4b as a bluff only crossed my mind momentarily, can't see how it could ever be profitable (especially on .fr :D).

I guess this hand was so agonising because he has so few legit value combos, but at the same time, I feel this specific set of actions is heavily weighted towards them, and I just can't beat any of them.  If I call and lose, I've lost half my chip stack too, which is annoying, as I'd prefer to be more active and winning small pots without showdown and chipping up in a soft comp.

What do you (and everyone ofc) think of the pre flop, flop and turn lines?  I thought it was quite standard, ott I like to check for pot control/he's never folding an ace, I have a tonne of equity too, like if he has Ax otr, he's gonna think im FOS so much as it's really hard for me to have a jack.  Think a river raise is mandatory for value, I mean you could say it's good for balance but tbh it doesn't matter if I'm totally unbalanced in this spot against this opponent imo, would assume some kind of dynamic/history, which is currently non existant.

preflop, flp and turn are fine/standard to me...

pre: we have a good ahnd and iso to 4x, sems pretty standard
flop: make a flush draw and semi bluff cbet at it... more standardness
turn: i like checking back we have showdown and a draw, anything that calls the turn we probably lose to and we can keep worse hands in by checking back, + if we are behind we get a free card to improve and win.

it seems like he should have something, and based on the flop action it shouldnt be a jack x that we beat, but this is french city, he limped pre which likely means he is bad and we have a good hand + getting a decentish price we dont have to win THAT often to be making this call brek even/profitable

i think a river 4bet is way ambitious and i wouldnt consider it. most likely sigh and call.

the drawback in these kind of spots is, you are repping jx and he doesnt seem to care, which suggests he has it, but as for the reasons above, i sigh call people do too many stupid things on the day of rest within french domains

The fact that he limps pre makes me want to 4bet here, but is tournament innit so just call 'cause no reload option.


Why?

Whereas this is all true, most spots OTR you wont have the luxury of being able to beat both bluffs AND value-bets.  Your analysis is spot on but I think sometimes you just have to make them show you it.

there are way more hand combos he can realistically have here that we lose to than we  beat when we 4bet and get called/shoved on.... if 4b or call are our only 2 options, it really isnt close

I'm not great at this combinatorics stuff (paging Honeybadger) but given that we're getting 3.45 to 1 and if you agree with lildaves post above we only really lose to 5 legit combos that he can have.

We need to be right just over 22% of the time to break even, he needs 2 combos of hands that we beat in his river 3b range for this to be a call.

Some good discussions here, though Jh 7h can't be a combo since Jh is on board, so we only lose to one combo of J7 ( Jc 7c) and three combos of AJ.

Cliffs are that he had AJ, but I hope my analysis hasn't come off as being results-orientated, these were indeed my in game thoughts.

Why?
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The biggest clue for me which i think has been overlooked was the betsizing. Hero has made a fairly large polarizing river raise which has then been raised pretty small in return, i mean this is just sooooo strong and definitely never a bluff, guys on .fr aren't going to have a great deal of imagination and are gonna be playing fairly face up. Can legitimiately expect him to take this line with AJ and 77/22, maybe some J7 combos too, i know we don't have to be right very often to show a profit and he can perhaps have worse J's but in game instinct without being able to use combinatoric analysis would make me make a painful fold here i think.