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I don't usually follow betting markets but I found something of interest to me this week. Having seen from odds checker that prices vary considerably between bookmakers for each contestant.  Earlier in the week one contestant was as long as 33/1 with one bookmaker and as short as 16/1 with another. It got me thinking do some bookmakers know more than others.

It's no secret that the field of 24 have been to judges houses over the last couple of weeks and I thought I would pick 3 contestants to check up on.  Now I would imagine the Xfactor have a confidentiality clause banning contestants from Facebook and twitter so used this to my advantage. Sure enough of the 40 odd contestants the favourite ella henderson has gone AWOL for the same 3 days that Tulisa is in St Lucia filming on the same flight as Dermot and Tiny Temper (sp). Yet surprisingly the 3rd fav Lucy Spraggans is tweeting all these days.

I then check the boys and once again one of the favs is tweeting whilst my 33/1 shot is away for the 3 days at the same time as miss Scherzinger.

My question really is would the bookmakers not look at this sort of stuff as it is a massive indicator?

Let 3 people know about the 33/1 shot earlier in the week. Then last night half a dozen more. Only 1 firm were doing ew and woke up this morning to find they now have him 20/1.  33's still available with Paddy power but not e/w.

The reason his price could have moved is in Scunthorpe we have a weekly (used to be daily) news paper and on Thursday they ran a story about him and his family on the front page.

A small piece of bad news is that our man has been tweeting to meet up with Lucy Spraggan ( the girl above who I believe did not get through, and is playing a gig in a pub in Goole???). But the worse news is yesterday he posted another song on YouTube and I would think this is against X factor rules.

Our 33/1 shot drifted out to 40/1 after last weekends final audition ( i am told due to more runners being added to the field ) and just noticed can be had at 50/1 this morning.
His story is in the Sun today and its boot camp tonight so it will be interesting seeing if he goes through and Lucy goes out as twitter may have indicated.

Word of advice.... Please do not tear up your betting slips if he happens to get through to judges houses but gets eliminated. All is not lost but we may have to go to ibas for a ruling. There is another reason the TV cameras go to someone's house after they have been eliminated ;)

Edit: think lilmix

Jade Ellis ftw

 ppl like people with a story and single mum thing might relate to alot of ppl


The fav jahmene might choke in the live shows

Think this years show is abit poo not that they produce good stuff

have you checked her twitter Paul? If there are 3 blank days beginning of September then she will have been at judges houses :)

Nope don't go on twitter

I take it she has got thru?

Who u think is gonna win? Wanna do a friendly bet ?

Girl from Tetney which ain't far from Lincoln was very good. Ella Henderson sang her own song inspired by her grandad. The lyrics were very good.

Hearing so much stuff about the Scunny lad it's hard to seperate the wheat from the chaff. Latest one is he is in a boys group with Dale Ali.  ???

Well that looked like the Jake Quickenden show with shots of him all the way through and the grande finale was the unfortunate homeless lad self destructing and walking off at the end during Jakes song. Lucy Spraggons got got through despite a shocking audition and no signs of Ella Henderson. Only 24 will survive tomorrow night to go through to judges houses. Can't see there being many 50/1 shots Monday morning.

good spot with Jahmene. Last night was terrible and had he not been awesome in the original audition would definatly got the Spanish archer last night.

Ella Henderson. Boom

Get in. Final place. Heart was in my mouth but he has been saying that he messed up boot camp solo.
So what does the show do..... Don't bother showing it. Awesome.

Don't ever wear a base ball cap backwards young man. Guess he won't be 50/1 in the morning now :)

good call with Jade Ellis.
Lucy Spraggon through too, must have sneaked her phone to bootcamp with her :)

Jskwktmrkdosdghkekd
Just  watching it now

Wow jade was tez

Winner. End of.

5/2 with hills

Jake Quickenden on train down to London.
Appearing on This Morning with his mum tomorrow.

Ella and Jake rocking it for North Lincolnshire.

Can't believe that joseph didn't get through
Didn't think he was under 25 tho

I noticed one of the groups, the three blokes one on guitar and one who beat boxed who never made the final 6, were doing an audition for next weeks judges house program as the final credits rolled. Massive sigh as I backed duke ew, these were the other group who beat boxed, defo only room for one, so another twist. Sigh

Prob wild card so 4 acts for each mentor

rough copy are not through and triple j went instead due to visa issues according to dan woottons tweet.

http://tellymix.co.uk/reality-tv/the-x-factor/107264-x-factor-2012-times-red-become-seventh-group-at-judges-houses.html

Wife has me watching Xtra factor. The boys is a particually tough group but when the girl interviews the 6 boys on the sofa Jake comes across really well and confident.

Hope Paul is right about 4 going through as this could tie in with why the tv cameras were at Jakes house last Wedneday. He lives in Bottesford like me so I should just man up get his address and go round there and ask him :)

Jahmene Douglas.            6/1
James Arthur                   10/1
Nathan Fagan Gayle.      40/1
Jake Quickenden.            50/1
Rylan Clarke.                   50/1
Adam Burridge.                80/1

Am I the only one who does not like this guy? He looks ridic stupid in a suit and sings like a girl.

He will get to the last 12, but for the love of god, hope he doesn't!

I'm hoping his bottle goes and pulls out but I quite like the guy. I am a pretty confident guy but my bottle would go for sure on that stage, I would love to work with Louis given a choice.

Jake on This Morning...... "Hopefully there won't be a steps week" then starts back tracking if I did get through etc.
Awesome interview going really well with Phil and his Mum.
Just realised having seen his mum they live on the road my kids school is on less than 500 yards away.

Reeeeally looking forward to Judges houses.  Then the pressure to keep quiet is off.

:)
All the bookies are now going 50/1 on Jake what the hell do I know. Put all this information in tips for Tikay and Good Luck trying to get 10p on with most bookies

Big  sigh. Just gone to my mates pub to play pool and a bit of poker. Got talking Jake and land lord tells me that Jake is playing here on the 6th of October. That don't sound too good to me. Having said that there are a few kids in here saying that he will make the live finals.

Heads in a proper spin now because the landlord just told me it will be a great night especially as the booking manager has told him that Jake is definatly gonna win X factor lol.

That's Scunthorpe for you I'm afraid.

Just been told I know the booking manager so will look him up

jas i think i may have the winner of this years show mate, hes in the over 25s catagory name kye sones, backed him at 6/1 early (im such a wanker but it was only a tenner ) but also at 14/1 , hes now around 10s after a flawless boot camp, ( gary quoted at the weekend at one to watch )  his only annoyance is that he keeps saying" he just  needs a break " well if for one will give him a fucker if he does my money :)  see ya soon mate be good !!!!

hes without my favourite, absolute class

Hey Lewis n pads. Without doubt there are far better singers and kye and Ella are serious contenders for the win. I thought that knowing that Jake was through to judges houses and his story that 33/1 was far to big. Shows what I know because you can get 50/1 now.

There appears to be more talent in this years show, I am loving it. As for my star and I doubt or hope that she wins it, is Lucy Spraggan. Technically not the best singer, but wow at her tunes/songwriting skills that can be accessed via you tube. Tea and toast is getting hit up numerous times daily.

How she has not been signed up prior to the x factor is unreal, plus this is not the ideal show for her to be moulded by said industry types, however the positive is the exposure and I have no doubt she's a future star selling lots of records.

Hate Lucy spraggons.

She had been gigging upto 5 nights a week for a few years according to her Twitter. Not sure how much mileage she has got but Ella's audition must have got most people thinking "yup been there". She must have sung her on song and the Cher number at her first audition.

Edit: Must give my head a bang. Can't believe I am fired up by X factor

Obv sat/Sunday are judges houses this weekend. Does anyone know if the live shows start next week?

Not sure when the live shows start, but deffo a big fan of Lucy's. 

Hmm. Not looking good now. Jake on This Morning yesterday and Lorraine has outsider Adam now. :(

Jake has signed for Frinkley Athletic: http://evostikleague.pitchero.com/blues-sign-x-factors-jake-10801/

Final nail in my coffin? Are you from South Emsall Womble?

No mate, Kent!

oh ok. Miles away then :)

Not the best audition there Jase, would be surprised if he gets the nod.

Yes so annoyed with myself. Started to believe the hype. Now 80-1 playing footy for a semi pro team and performing in my mates pub

Such a slow roll having to wait until tomorrow night!

Gary sent jake a tweet tonight thinking of his family.

Union J are a good bet at 20/1

Do the odds get cut dramatically after we find out the final 12. It was not easy to see who went through from the way the photos were placed on the tables last night but in the overs the final place was between the floppy haired house wife and the nervous wreck of a guy from Liverpool

Yea once in the final most will be cut!

Put a cheeky bet on jake but then saw he played for his new team yesterday so not looking good at all

yeah and he is playing at the Priory in Scunny next Saturday night. Jakes manager told the Land Lord he is defo through to the live finals when he booked him tho :)

Think he needs a new manager double booking him

Ella Henderson is 5/4 before the comp even starts?? That is a bit wtf for me. So I like MK1@66/1 & GMD3@16/1 both each way for good sweats.

Jahmene Douglas has many potential failings. He was a bag of nerves in auditions let alone live telly. Needs to be versatile across the shows but looked lost when the tempo stepped up in Moves like Jagger. Sings with his eyes closed so no connection with audience.

Do u think there is any value in betting on tv shows?

I remember Amelia Lilly hinted that it's fixed last year

Javine and girls aloud sticks out quite abit Also

Why was it fixed Paul. Got any links

Lol @ been a fix 

I didn't say it's a fix
But if a contestant said something about it i would be hesitant to put anything on it

Javine was huge favourite to be in the final group and failed to get in. Will try find something

Meh it was about when Amelia got voted back into the finals

So it's a fix cos Amelia  says so

Pls read my posts properly

 I did and your post said


Soooo just cos Amelia Lilly said it was a fix you think so to?

The other one

Ella Henderson will absolute piss it this year.

The only one who I think is anywhere near as good as her is her in the overs with the curly hair.

that was a big call from tulisa!

not sure it's the right one.  Unique that lucy is "Adele" is much much better singer.

can't see Lucy singing well in some categories at the live shows, as per her 2nd bootcamp audition showed.

all academic, as Ella will walk.

If it is fixed/rigged/manipulated, well see, as they give her a hard time/songs to make a show of it to keep people interested in some way.

Right that's me done. Sorry for the tip. Can watch the Golf now :)

Wtf..... So that's why they......oh no forget it. Tear up your slips lol

Pretty standard milk some more money from the punters trick I guess

I've a wee bet on UnionJ to be first out tonight.  District3 are bookies fav to leave, but the site my teenage daughter swears by has UnionJ as the ones to go.

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103/the-x-factor/news/a410716/x-factor-show-one-who-sang-best-have-your-say-poll.html
 
Apparently the one with lowest votes on that site was nearly always the one to go last year. 

Of course it'll all go tits up now that I've posted, but there ya go.

Can't see carolyne getting much votes he was terrible.

Thought she was good!

...and definitely a she!

Who will vote for her?

She'll hang on for a few weeks, but she won't win her category.

I like her :)

She's not terrible, but she's obv not likeable enough for the people who pick up the phone and vote. 

Not a fan of hers, but the wrong one definitely went tonight.  Shocking result.

Set up result, live shows were over before they started as the 16 year old girl is a class apart. How do the production company cause a stir, by giving us that result. Someone was chatting to Louis as Carolyn did her sing off, obv telling him the script.... Dither, Dermot to hurry up x6 times, say both names, confuse everyone and send the girl home. More press time that way.

Mehhhh neither can win and he's more entertainning, she's boring.

Whilst I agree Ella is good, this time last year everyone was saying Janet Devlin would piss it and Little Mix were nearly out first week. And Pleno might have nailed this one, but he thought Fankie was good  ;D

I watch frankies bootcamp (both parts) at least. 3 times a week. He's incred.

Expecting Ella to drop out in week 7ish.

Want to lay me 2s Ella Pleno

Lol, incred if true liking MK1 and James Arthur if the latter doesn't do a cover of this cover at somepoint i'll be mightily surprised.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c__noWWtdZg

really like James Arthur as a guy, but I think he doesn't sing brilliantly, I'm not voal expert, but whenever he breathes he breathes really heavily into the mic and its pretty offputting. Can imagine him sturggling in a few of the weeks and whilst he will give it 100% I'm just really unsure, no doubt will go super far though.

Boy bands will generally have a huge edge on these solo artists IMO, Union J should probably be backed now to lay later, as they will improve alot next week and sing a very easy and safe ballad after last week and will get alot of female/girl votes and they also sing pretty well, but won't win.

ella is soooo good

Good singer.

My faves are MK1, James Arthur and Jahmene. Thought MK1 were tremendous yesterday.

agreed, charlies voice is brilliant imo

http://www.digitalspy.co.uk/tv/s103/the-x-factor/news/a430490/x-factor-show-two-who-sang-best-have-your-say-poll.html

Kye lowest this week.

Can get 7/2 in the bottom two or 12/1 to go.

The show is totally fixed not even worth a watch or a punt

Got any evidence? Or just a disgruntled Melanie fan?

Well the producer speaking in Louis's ear is questionable

huh?

Welcome to the competition Mr. James Arthur. His LMFAO mixed with Bananarama would be a smash hit if he released it tomorrow. Just blew it out the box.

Another act smashing it up is MK1. Especially the Gypsy Woman half. Incred 66/1 is still available for any shrewdies out there.

Ella Henderson was obv good but didn't bring the song into 2012 like these two.

missed it but wife says they all did well. She got and liked James Arthur for the first time and said Ella sang my fav song of all time :)

Wow, Union J definitely can't handle a sing off!

This is definitely worst XF I have ever seen.

Fair play Borelow making the decision and not dead locking it.

....who had week 3?

District 3 favs to go tonight at around evens.
However there's a feeling that they have been hard done to/ stitched up.... by Louis.
Possible sympathy votes?. Also they trend on twitter alot, and one of the One Direction guys , who has 7 million followers, has asked his fans to vote for them.

So possible value if we take a chance and they aren't in the bottom two......

I think Kye, who has been in the bottom two before, could be there, but at 10/11 isn't value, but who might be with him?
 Chris has had a solid vote from day one...topping the poll some weeks according to inside info.
 Is Rylans vote solid now? does he get best friends Lucy's votes?
So maybe James? Obviously a good singer..but at the odds, I take a chance of him in the bottom two with Kye

Done 22/1 with Sky bet, for a tenner. : James and Kye bottom two

jahmene has now overtaken ella henderson as the bookies favourite to win. Personally i find ella quite boring to be perfectly honest and think that if shes in the bottom two tonight vs: unon j, james arthur or jahmene she will be the one to be sent home, and therefore ella to go @ 40/1 possibly isnt incredbly likely, but is good value!! As stated above rylan has quite a following now, as does christopher. Also district 3 seem to be getting more popular with the public. By my reckoning out of the four remaining acts ella would be the favourite to go.

Interesting and can see yr points, but forget 40s, u can get 80s at coral and stan james, oddschecker ftw.

May have a penny or two on this as def some value, but i mainly like district 3 to go@9-4.

Murdered that clapton classic imo, union j shld get the boyband vote and bar v chris i think they'd go v any1 else in the bottom 2.

:) got 100/1 @ betfred!!! real value! :) agree with district 3 tbh 9/4 is massive as there deffinatly the favourites to go!

I drove through Tetney today with the kids to see the seals being born at Donna Nook. No sign of Ella

omg lol

sick read

Followed earlier logic and thought this was the week for Ella. Mini Boom after a bad day at Chelts!!

Great calls. Is there some campaign to get votes for chris and Rylan?

Yeah Frankie is crushing ;)

union j are the new frankie


<33333333333333333333333

Bit harsh, they're not that sh!t :)

I don't know how Chris takes so much shit from the media and the judges. Hope there is a campaign to get him and Rylan to the final. Both a joke but would serve the Xfactor right. I noticed that the USA version after the elimination shows the order people voted for the other acts. Little girl won this week and cowboy 2nd. If the public were aware that Ella was not getting many votes then she may well have been in the comp now

Chris is a joke to be honest.

It serves them all right for saying yes to him on his first audition, shows how much talent has gone down since a few years ago.

Show needs a total revamp, because there is no way ITV are going to axe it with how much they make of it.

I don't think the 'People assuming shes safe so didn't vote' had as much to do with it as you would think to be quite honest. She wasn't the most diverse act, nor was she the most entertaining. Yes she could sing incredibly well, but in truth this gets a bit boring after a while and towards the end of her time in the X-factor she actually seemed quite arrogant which I'm sure defiantly cost her votes. (Obv she'll get a recording deal anyway).

On a side note i can't really see why everybody seems to hate Christopher and i can actually see him coming close to winning to be honest (but probably 2nd) - that's IF hes not in the bottom two in the semi-final, as if he is - hes 100% gone. I think for the songs he sings, he sings them incredibly well. Hes defiantly got the vote of the older generation - who although may not be the majority viewers - i feel will be the biggest voting demographic.

James Arthur is my favorite ever act on the X-factor (granted I've only ever watched this series - however i know a few acts from before) and by my reckoning his following is growing week by week. He's a likeable guy and sings a style which none of the remaining contestants are anywhere near, and therefore i feel he will have picked up followers from previous acts who sing similar styles - Rylan / MK1 / Jade Ellis / Lucy Spraggan (based on creativity)...etc, where as two of the other remaining contestants - being; Christopher and Jahmene, both sing similarish styles and are both vying for the 'sympathy vote', however as mentioned before Chris i feel will have the edge between the two acts as he has the majority vote of the older demographic and therefore i can see Jahmene coming 3rd behind Chris 2nd and James 1st (i have a chunk invested on james arthur to win @ 8/1 so c'mannnn!!).

Union J - Obv gonna be loved by little girls (little being the operative word - they probably wont be voting as much) and based on past experience of boybands within the competition - although they have gone on from the show to do well - they haven't been winning and i think this pretty much speaks for itself. There have been better boybands in the past who haven't won vs who i feel are weaker opposition, therefore i dont think these lads have that much of a chance and i can see them going out in 4th - this week i assume they'll be in the bottom two vs Jahmene.

Order i reckon acts will come
1st - James (Chris possibly)
2nd - Chris (James possibly)
3rd - Jahmene
4th - Union J

 

1. Chris
2. Jahmene
3. Union J
4. James

Who will end up making a longer career? James

without a doubt

Union J?
I think they will become hugely popular

hey did you see the Tim Chung thread

a8? yeah why do you want him in union J?

to appeal to the massive  Asian market :)

Ask him pretty sure he will be up for it