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Title: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: rfgqqabc on October 06, 2012, 06:03:11 AM Brief history: Guy has played main event via sat a few times, and used to beat 5/10nl cap online, as a supernova. Plays live mainly for fun, usually drinking and always in the mood. Super splashy. Yesterday cold 4bet me with AJ, i peeled and folded to a turn bet on AQTxx. Around November last year i got in a pot where 6 people limp, I make it 22, Fox makes it 67 and i jammed for 400. He showed KK, i had KQo (spewtastic). We had a heavy 3bet dynamic around 6 months ago, but I've been away and we have rarely played apart from night before.
I have 450, Fox covers. AdAs Fox limps utg, i make it 10 utg +3, 2 people flat, fox makes it 27 more. I make it 79 total, he peels. Flop: £170 QdTd9c Fox leads for 79. I have 360 back in total. WWYD? In addition to this dynamic, the casino is currently running an AA cracked jackpot. Current prizepool is £3.2k and we have a 2/20 chance of winning, with the other 18 prizes varying from £5-60. would like views with and without jackpot pls Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: JK on October 06, 2012, 11:58:01 AM With jackpot fk it and pile. We could either a) get there or b) get out of it with jackpot.
Without its pretty gross. Honestly don't know. Folding just seems crazy exploitable... Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: david3103 on October 06, 2012, 12:12:49 PM Given location and a guess at villain's ID I'm in.
He's peeling a lot you're ahead of and can be leading as often to rep a hand as having hit one. If he has flopped a set/really funky straight get there with backdoor diamonds etc or get Dom to spin the wheel for you, he seemed pretty good at it the other week on my last visit till hell freezes over. Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: Keylek on October 06, 2012, 12:32:01 PM A 2/20 chance of winning the jackpot... so 1/10 ? = £320 EV? Obv pile in but I don't think the jackpot is that likely is it??
And Dave come on, we definately miss you @ Gala, so I hope this hell freezes over soon. If I was you in this spot I would jam but JK is right its suppppppppper gross but folding is yuk too and with only two bets to get all the money in I can't imagine really what his leading range is.. Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: pleno1 on October 06, 2012, 01:19:03 PM Go with it he's no limp raising @9/1010, goes broke with qx that is either tptk or pair plus draw also maybe clicks it in with jj with dynamic and isn't folding kings. If he folds now then that's gone too.
Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: zerofive on October 06, 2012, 01:33:41 PM Move in.
Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: tight4better on October 06, 2012, 04:02:48 PM Slider all the way to the right, click.
Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: cambridgealex on October 06, 2012, 04:05:09 PM With jackpot it's a super easy shove.
Without it's a sigh call/call for me. Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: FrenchieBeni on October 10, 2012, 10:55:04 PM Imagine we jam flop:
we call x = % of the time we need to win the hand x*(170+360) + (1-x)*(10%*3200-90%*360) > 0 works out : x>0.7%. (this seems ridic low mb did sth wrong.) so not going anywhere in the jackpot scenario. think jamming is more fun and protection seems to be relevant in this spot. if no jackpot id call flop vs this sizing and turn sould read mode on for blank turns. would prolly find a fold most of the time tho. Title: Re: Weirdest live spot ever- With Aces Post by: rfgqqabc on October 10, 2012, 11:29:18 PM I was 99.9% sure it was a jam with the jackpot, i was more curious as to without, and if their would be any differences if the ev of jamming or call/call, call/soul read etc were.
When we reach this pot size the ev of the jackpot makes less of a difference, sometimes if the pot will be small it becomes correct to flat etc early on. |