blonde poker forum

So were like 400ish out of 700ish.

Correct play here is?

Take the unexploitable route? Or play it safe?

I mean I'm pretty certain that I know which play is mathematically correct, but in the moment, What would you do?

***** Hand History for Game 88025262397 ***** (Poker Stars)
Tourney Hand NL Texas Hold'em - Sunday, October 21, 07:39:08 ET 2012
Table 652020010 535 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Seat 1: sanya00059 ( $127207.00 USD )
Seat 2: LittleBoyRoy ( $117483.00 USD )
Seat 3: ruslan8039 ( $4173.00 USD )
Seat 4: ProWigg ( $80162.00 USD )
Seat 5: Ultraballs18 ( $70323.00 USD )
Seat 6: cerilloin ( $94781.00 USD )
Seat 7: Aleksandrx18 ( $27542.00 USD )
Seat 8: Dw4ine ( $216747.00 USD )
Seat 9: ch1nch ( $133578.00 USD )
sanya00059 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
LittleBoyRoy posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
ruslan8039 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
ProWigg posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Ultraballs18 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
cerilloin posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Aleksandrx18 posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Dw4ine posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
ch1nch posts ante of [$300.00 USD].
Ultraballs18 posts small blind [$1500.00 USD].
cerilloin posts big blind [$3000.00 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Ultraballs18 [  5s Kd ]
Aleksandrx18 folds
Dw4ine folds
ch1nch folds
sanya00059 folds
LittleBoyRoy folds
ruslan8039 folds
ProWigg folds
Ultraballs18 ???

Any reads whatsoever? Either just fold or r/f. Depending on villain, vs most I would just fold though.

Played with him for a while to this point now, pretty snug but with a few resteals.

r/f unless i have a reason to do anything else. Super opponent dependent, some I'm minning atc etc

I really don't like r/f here, as jamming is more profitable.

Dealt to Ultraballs18 [  5s Kd ]
Aleksandrx18 folds
Dw4ine folds
ch1nch folds
sanya00059 folds
LittleBoyRoy folds
ruslan8039 folds
ProWigg folds
Ultraballs18 raises [$68523.00 USD]


This is the reason I jam.

73923*0.27275 - 70023*0.7275 = 20163-50942 = -30779

7300*.934 -30779*.066 = 6818.2 - 2031.4 = +6616.8 cEV



Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 136,984,320  games     0.000 secs    27,396,864,000  games/sec

Board:
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    27.275%     26.87%    00.40%          36813604       548819.00   { Kd5s }
Hand 1:    72.725%     72.32%    00.40%          99073078       548819.00   { 77+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }

Just because something is profitable or unexpliotable doesn't mean it's best/good.

Jamming here is really bad, what would your jamming range be here ?

Your calling range for villain is very quickly going to be way wrong against anyone decent when your jamming this wide.

Indeed. Like I say, it's mathematically correct. I'm questioning if it's the best play?

You obv think not?

This was the first time it had been folded to me in the sb for like 60 hands vs this guy btw, so I feel his calling range is pretty correct. Obviously if I've done this the last 5 orbits I'd need to widen his calling range significantly, probably enough to make this an -cEV play.

Your calling ranges for villain are miles off imo. You have put in him folding AJos, id say he is 1000-1 to fold that

4 s+, A2s+ A7os+ K9s+ KTos+ QTs QJs- is probably a more realistic range

Obviously my range there is slightly too wide for the average SM player, but its easy to skew number to make stuff look more profitable than it is

I rf pre

73923*.314 - 70023*.686 = 23211-48035 = 24824

7300*.824 - 24824*.176 = 6015 - 4369 = + 1646 cEV


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

 366,433,056  games     0.000 secs    73,286,611,200  games/sec

Board:
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    31.411%     30.69%    00.72%         112454456      2645689.50   { Kd5s }
Hand 1:    68.589%     67.87%    00.72%         248687221      2645689.50   { 44+, A2s+, KTs+, A7o+, KJo+ }


Unexploitable shove is unexploitable. :p

Jokes obv, were getting called 17.6% of the time now, so yeah, seems too much of a risk. Sigh.

Need to work out what the cEV of raise folding is, using the calling range as a shoving range plus a few more suited kings and queens.

r/f >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

open fold is somewhere in the middle of that

Just fold it's 2012

Think the given calling range is too wide, something more like 66+ A8o+ A6s+ KJs+ KQo. Either way open jamming here is pretty horrible. r/f slightly > fold >>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

jam is nasty nasty

play it safe!
I'm folding>r/f>c/f>all in

much prefer making a little raise pre and play poker
never expecting villain to make ambitious bluffy moves post
getting it all in here pre is borderline questionable

this

For what reason is it horrible?

It's +2bb cEV (10% of stack), with a 6.6% chance of being called by a range were 27% against?

What is the non mathematical theory that makes this horrible in 2012? (Not pointing this question squarely at Thigh btw, its open to the floor.)

Because it's a terrible line.

Do you think the Heads Up Hyper Turbo heroes jam K high every hand 17bbs deep because it's borderline profitable?

Already shown the 6.6% is way way higher and being +ev doesnt always mean optimal. Obviously whenever we get dealt an above average hand bvb its +Ev to shove any amount, doesnt make it optimal.

Noone mentions card removal either which does have a decent effect on calling ranges- some "interesting" reads here about how significant the effect is

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/q6-sb-11-12bb-effective-arguments-folding-1255043/index2.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/87/high-stakes-mtt/simple-bounty-spot-brawl-858658/index6.html
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/36/stt-strategy/lt-card-removal-bunching-effect-simulation-321075/

Having chips (even 20bb stack) deep in the sunday million is so vaulable. People are so bad they gift you chips, this is not the 100r where you need to take every edge.

r/f is optimal anyway, give the risk of busting and BvB people dont give you credit even for a big shove. Even a fish knows you dont jam AA here for example

Its not even 17bbs, it's 70k at 1500/3000 which is 23bbs! It's a ridiculous amount to jam with K5o. So so spewy.

Thanks for the links Dave, really interesting. I remember reading a similar thread by HU_15 regarding a jam by DJK123 into him. That thread was very interesting too, although now quite old.

After reading peoples opinions, I'm beginning to think that my jam might have been an incorrect decision. :p :p  #understatement

Seriously though, 'knowing' other peoples opinions is all well and good, but I would far prefer to understand the 'why' I shouldn't be taking these +ev spots.

Risk vs Ruin game theory I guess

raise / fold > fold > call >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> jam

i def disagree that random snug villains will be calling off the bottom 20% of that range vs a 23bb shove... i would remove qts, qjs, qjo k9s, kts, kto and some other other hands he might fold like the low axs and kjo/kqo

a more realistic range imo for described player is 44/a7s/a9o/kjs/kqo

ps dont shove just raise/fold vs this knid of opponent

Wrong.

In the money in the sunday million aswell!

i'd also r/f pre, you keep using the term "mathematically correct" it is mathematically unexploitable but can't be either mathematically in/or correct as there are other factors to consider. For instance with this logic open jamming aces from the button with 100 bigs would be "mathematically correct" but you'd never do it. It's a mathematically unexploitable play but that doesn't mean we can't find a more optimal line to take in order to increase long term expected chip profit. Hope this helps and isn't too rambley, seems very rambley

You guys know the Sunday Million is really soft right? and you don't want to bust it so you get to play with lots of fish?