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Romney is currently 4.3 on Betfair.

Based on what I've been reading and watching that sounds like incredible value, but I've never really followed political markets, are they usually pretty reliable?

been a big discussion on tikays thread

PP paid out on Obama this morning. Now I realise their US marketing/advertising budget is vast at the moment, as seen at recent Ryder Cup, but they're not known for giving away money either!

http://blog.paddypower.com/2012/11/04/paddy-power-pays-out-400000-on-obama-victory-in-u-s-presidential-election/

That's bananas. Every major news medium is saying it's close and, owing to the unique way the country and the voting system work, it always is.

Obama is largely recognised as being ahead and has been finding some gas late on in the race, but paying out seems absurd.

Just Paddy Power marketing IMO

Obama is a true 1/10 shot at this point imo.

If you are thinking of betting on Romney then watch the latest episode of a  TV programme called " Real time with Bill Maher" and you will keep your money in your pocket.

Everything is pointing to an Obama once you cut through the waffle and look at the key states. Romney needs to win Ohio for example and all the polls point to that being unlikely.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/ is a really good statistical look at the election. Nate silver the guy behind is an ex poker pro and absolutely nailed the last election.

I think I've been warped by rolling 24hr news to think it's close.  All logic should point to an easy Obama win but they've been throwing so much 'too close to call' stuff at everyone it's starting to not look like a sure thing in my head.

Obama must be a lock surely.  Can someone who doesn't watch Sky News that much please confirm this?

Is there a chance of people lying to pollsters because they are too embarrassed to admit they are going to vote for Romney?

If they admitted voting for George W Bush, they're not going to get all coy about Romney.

I'm just back from 3 weeks in Ohio and I would definitely say "Yes" to that question.  Very few Romney 'fans' are shouting it.  Only the die hard republicans who would have voted for whatever republican was on the ticket are willing to say it out loud.  

Meanwhile, democrats in the middle/upper middle class are looking at the upper class (predominately republican) and saying, "I want what they have."  So there's a quiet shift happening around the place and I honestly couldn't tell you who I think will win Ohio.  

Both parties spent a fortune on campaign ads that run 24/7.  Then Hurricane Sandy came a calling.  In that last crucial week before elections, half the homes had no power to watch said ads in the swing state of Ohio.  Many homes are still without power and aren't expected to have it until middle of next week.  Would love to know how much money was wasted on telly ads for a target audience who can't see them.  That said, everyone was pretty sick of the ads and tuned them out anyway.  

They didn't admit to voting for Bush against Kerry.
Kerry was ahead after exit polls and Bush was some big price, 7/2 or something. My mate told me to get on Bush, I didn't, he did and he never fails to remind me every 4 years.

I think voter turnout is going to be key, tons of apathy and 'don't care who wins, not going to change anything' feeling going on.  Last time out I think the turnout was around 60% which is pretty high for the U.S.  No way they hit those numbers now with everything which has been going on, both parties need to get as much of their base and leaning voters in the voting booth as possible.  Might be a chance more people in Romney's base do that Obama's, especially if the middle ground think Obama's won anyway.  That was part of the problem for Kerry IIRC.

Surely, even if it were NOT close, the Media would suggest it was. The closer it appears to be, the more Media interest there is. Vested interest & all that.

Naturally, the Media can be trusted to tell the truth, & not put a self-serving spin on things.

The thing is it is close.  In all probability both of the candidates will get close to 50% of the vote and it is a probably 95%+ chance that both will poll within 2% points of each other in terms of the popular vote but that really doesn't matter because of the electoral college voting system in the states.  If Romney wins the popular vote there is still a decent chance Obama becomes president.  If Obama wins the popular vote there is less than a 1% chance he loses the presidency.  Despite my confidence in Obama winning I still believe there are risk factors.  In Ohio the guy in charge of the voting process is a Republican that is trying his best to tilt the voting process there against the Democrats through various different legal means and I think there will be other tricks like that.  I am not sure that Americans are embarrassed to be voting for Romney.  We are talking about Americans here and pretending to be liberal isn't a fashionable trait in the way it is in Europe, if it was the tea party wouldn't have so much popular support and the media wouldn't be dominated by idiots like Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh.

What % of your net wealth would you put on Obama at 1/2? (And you aren't allowed to hedge obviously)

10-15% and I would feel nitty about it.

After reading and listening to some of the media outlets about this, it seems like it's terribly close. But you know what the media are like trying to make a story out of absolute nothing & sometimes bigging up the stories. Look at the storm over there last week, they hyped it up so bad and said it was a massive hurricane, but in all reality it was a strong storm, rather than hurricane. Even many people living in those hit places, said it was more of a storm.

I think they are hyping this up to be really close & I don't think it will be. I think it will be closer than other elections, but Obama will come out on top. There is absolute no way Romney can win in states that he is after, especially in Ohio, which is the one supposed to make or break either election.

If that is true - then it isn't close

From what I've read the popular vote will be close but the votes in the swing states are going to Obama. Even taking in to account that people won't want to admit they support Romney it looks like his only chance is if a lot of Obama supporters don't turn up to vote and given how close the media are hyping it - that seems unlikely.

The popular vote is meaningless - it doesn't matter how many votes each candidate rack up in California, New York or Texas, those results aren't going to change. All that matters is the nine or so swing states and Obama has a small, but consistent lead in the polls in each of the ones he needs to win, with a couple spare as well.

There's always the possibility of shenanigans going on, and there have been plenty of rumblings of that in Florida (surprise, surprise) with six-hour long queues to vote in the more Democrat-strong areas, but I think that the Republicans can only steal the election now, rather than win it fairly.

Tbf Sandy was clearly always going to be a storm rather than a hurricane, it was more about the sheer size of the storm that made it so interesting. It's the largest ever record storm system in the Atlantic ocean, definitely very news worthy.

Sandy was a category 2 hurricane when it hit the Caribbean.  It weakened approaching the Staes, only to strengthen back to category 1.  It may not have been that strong at landfall, but it was definitely a hurricane at times.  Of course some people would have experienced a less severe storm than others.

Wiki says it became some kind of cyclone as it approached the states, but it all feels like semantics.  It was clearly a very big storm that caused a huge amount of damage.  Didn't need hyping, as some of the pictures were shocking. 

Of course if Haiti was home to as many media outlets as the States, and we had more interest in their country, them our news would have been different.

It was an exceptionally week hurricane as it hit the us, was a storm within a matter of minutes. Like I say the sheer size of the storm was the difference in this case.

Definitely a hurricane, but it only devastated Haiti, Cuba and other Caribbean islands when it was at his height - so it doesn't count...

Yes like I said 'when it hit the us'

Meanwhile, getting back to the election......

Paddy Power have already paid out on bets for Obama to win.



(http://i1147.photobucket.com/albums/o541/tikay2/twiggy.jpg)

That Paddy Power has paid out is insane imo.  They need to cut back on their pint intake.

To sum up my thoughts on Paddy Power paying out early

(http://static.tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pub/images/truey.jpg)

Whilst there is all this PP love it's also worth pointing out that on Sunday someone tried to bet on a tie at 100/1 and was restricted to eight pence.

they are not doing it out the kindness of there green heart

No particular "love" here, the relevance is that it suggests they believe the result is nailed on. And it must be true, because my Granny told me that bookies are never wrong.

Was referring to Aaron's post.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/2012/apr/03/bookie-betfred-manchester-united-title

As has been said, surely only makes sense as a marketing/publicity ploy?

 ;D

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDxOSjgl5Z4

So much win.  Worth checking out the Saturday Night Live Presidential Debate skits on Youtube as well IMO.

<3 Chris Rock!

looking ever more like Obama

Thankfully.

That was quite a speech. The bloodiest and most unpleasant campaign in a generation comes to end with a simple, formulaic call to arms, bathed in classical rhetoric, slathered in patriotism and dipped neatly in buzzwords.

Hilary '16?

She says "no" right now, but once Hillary retires from the State Department in January, there's every chance she'll get bored sitting around and change her mind. 

However, if she does decide to go for it, she'll be crucified by questions regarding Benghazi.  It'll be difficult to win an election without some sharp answers to those questions.  She knows this and if she runs...it'll make the fight for this year's election look like a school bake sale.

Hilary will be 69 years of age in 2016.  IIRC the only person who was older at time of their first elected term was Ronald Reegan.  It's possible but with everyone pushing for connection to the youth of America and her obvious association to the 1990s I see her chances as unlikely to even get the Democrat nomination.

The psephology of all this is very interesting

This was written in 2009 and proved very prescient

http://www.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,1904136,00.html

the White population in the US is falling 2% every 30 years

The Hispanic population in the US rising 2% every 30 years

Last night something like 85% of Hispanics voted Democrat

Big big structural demographic shifts going on, and a GOP that in parts has its head in the sand

It forces republican candiates to pander to the very right wing during the primaries and then head way to the centre for the November election, by which time the damage is done

I mean, how could Romney every win Ohio when he made millions alongside Bain capital from the ousourcing of the Detroit motor industry and voted against the bailout?

How can Republicans get the vote of Women (Obama was 20% ahead on the Women vote) when some senators (who all got turfed out yesterday after expressing such views ) are rape deniers and so anti abortion that its a no-no for them even if conception is through rape/incest?

Pretty fascinating stuff, but not as fascinating as watching Fox News through the night and seeing so many right wing commentators stuck in the mud.

One thing I think has been fascinating about this election is the degree to which the Republicans and right in the US seem so keen to disprove logic, science and maths.  The demonisation of Nate Silver for having the gall to actually look at polling data and modelling it is a case in point as is the constant denial of climate change and evangelical based policies on abortion, contraception and gay marriage. 

more on this

http://firstread.nbcnews.com/_news/2012/11/07/14993875-first-thoughts-obamas-demographic-edge?lite

http://pokerfuse.com/features/editorial-opinion/why-the-united-states-election-could-not-have-gone-better-for-online-poker-players-07-11/