blonde poker forum

Might get slated for this hand but post it anyway

Pre is bad from me I got put off 3 to 5 by OR's 18/14 20% fold to 3b 0% 4b (10 instances) over 300 hands but i should just fold or 3/5

As played, river?

PokerStars Hand #88717671766: Tournament #654020025, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level X (150/300) - 2012/11/04 15:40:15 WET [2012/11/04 10:40:15 ET]
Table '654020025 86' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: Broose51 (12796 in chips)
Seat 2: GraveDanger3 (1765 in chips)
Seat 3: -t1me2sh1ne- (5090 in chips)
Seat 4: Mt.Spewmore (11893 in chips)
Seat 5: Mortan23 (10639 in chips)
Seat 6: damn1229 (16464 in chips)
Seat 7: Tim Piper (12763 in chips)
Seat 8: portillo23 (7995 in chips)
Seat 9: lubos1980cz (7708 in chips)
Broose51: posts the ante 30
GraveDanger3: posts the ante 30
-t1me2sh1ne-: posts the ante 30
Mt.Spewmore: posts the ante 30
Mortan23: posts the ante 30
damn1229: posts the ante 30
Tim Piper: posts the ante 30
portillo23: posts the ante 30
lubos1980cz: posts the ante 30
Mt.Spewmore: posts small blind 150
Mortan23: posts big blind 300
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Mt.Spewmore [8s 8c]
damn1229: folds
Tim Piper: folds
portillo23: folds
lubos1980cz: folds
Broose51: raises 318 to 618
GraveDanger3: folds
-t1me2sh1ne-: folds
Mt.Spewmore: calls 468
Mortan23: calls 318
*** FLOP *** [2s 2d 9h]
Mt.Spewmore: checks
Mortan23: checks
Broose51: bets 615
Mt.Spewmore: calls 615
Mortan23: calls 615
*** TURN *** [2s 2d 9h] [Js]
Mt.Spewmore: checks
Mortan23: checks
Broose51: checks
*** RIVER *** [2s 2d 9h Js] [8d]
Mt.Spewmore: bets 1725
Mortan23: raises 7651 to 9376 and is all-in
Broose51: folds
Mt.Spewmore: folds

bb is a reg playing 15/11 over 700

:)

really dislike the fold otr, seems hes gonna have Q10 there alot

Seems like he's gonna have QT like never. (It was BB who overcalled the flop that shoved in case you misread it)

He isn't bluffing and only shoving 22/99/JJ for value. Fold seems fine.

Apologies, i did misread!

agree this is never a bluff and we dont really have a hand which beats much which isnt bluffing!!!

very good fold!

Do regs get ool by t300 these days? Folding perfectly reasonable to me assuming he's gonna be straightforward and without a read he's capable of getting way ool here.

trivial.

You have not been slated enough itt.

Surely you are putting him on JJ?

i mean, if bb is bad he could have some suited deuces and play them this way maybe, dislike thoughts of 3/5 pre and think preflop is perfect. Most likely holding is 99 but if i dont know the villian there is no way i can fold here. Seeing him flip 28/29/J2ss wouldnt surprise me in the slightest, also some random take off, if i know villain or had time to OPR and he was a winner who wouldnt flick those type of hands in then id probably make the fold.

Would have thought J-9 is a big possibility here, maybe A-2 too.

id say he has j9 less than 1 in 1000 times and a2 less than 1 in 351 times.

Why do you think it's unlikely he has J-9?

Would expect him to just call river.

What worse would he be hoping will call when he jams ?

I'm assuming you don't expect him to turn J9 into a bluff ever.

He has 22. Took a few reads of the HH to piece it together as initially thought it was a snap fist pump call.  He could have JJ but expect a squeeze pre with that. Could have 99. The only hand he has you beat is Q10 but cant see him jamming river with that.

Wait, whahhhhhhhat?!

Just some of my thoughts....

Villain is a winning player (but so is UhhMee) running 15/11 over 700.

EDIT: Just searched him, he is a big winner over fairly small volume. (compared to real high volume grinders, 6000mtt's this year isn't much)

He's playing a 33bb stack out of the bb.

He might flat JJ, but unlikely. He wouldn't flat J9, even suited. Highly suspect he wouldn't flat 22.

So that's 6 hand combo's (99+JJ) in his range that beat us.

He's flat 77-TT. He'd likely flat QTs. He'd also flat some spade combo's, ATss, KQss, Q9ss. He'd flat AJo-AQo. I would say there's a higher chance of him floating the flop with these, than flatting 22 pre.

What will your stats look like to him? 700 hands is a lot. Any notes?

Although I fully understand your reasons for folding, I just think long term folding here is more than likely going to hurt your $

The more I think the more I feel it's a fold readless. Though you're still a sicko.

*hat off*

Why would he not flat 22 or J9s? No notes that help this hand in any way.

I guess the hand is pretty interesting when some are saying snap call and some are saying snap fold.

Because he hasn't the odds to call 22 and J9s profitably.

Just looked at this more. I think I prefer a glorious shove on the river as opposed to bet folding.

It looks terribly bluffy, which means we'll get hero'd much wider than a std value bet. We'll get called by worse combos with a jam (QT, worse FHs, sometimes J9, 2x) way more than we get called by better. Very little he checks the turn with that doesn't call a jam, and it also prevents said hands that don't call (KQss etc) to be turned into a bluff.

Timing on his river jam? Snap? Tankings?

Guess the only real deciding factor in this hand is the question...How often do winning regs bluff in these spots? (considering we folded 4th nuts)

Is it...
<0.5%
<2%
<10%
?

In my opinion its more than 2%, which is enough to make it a call. But obv you guys feel it is precisely zero, in which case its a b/f.

This is probably one of most interesting HH's for a while.

But just find some of OP comments a bit contradictory. You say that you played bad pre-flop, but you are still calling and putting him on bigger hand after? At one point seems to put him on 99, but call on flop?

Not sure on the player, but you just have to call it off, imo.

thoughts? Wow, what can I say.
does look like your river bet is weak, and I couldn't make that bet fold in game. vwp sir
surely villain can be doing that move with every house trips and 2pair he could hold??
what I think we need to understand is how he perceives what value range you would call off or even fold with
putting 1.7 into 4k with a decent chunk back
 when turn checks through river bet can't look stealy on this board considering your position and actions.
so 1 combo of deuces
     6 combo of J/9
     16 combo of QT
     3 combo of JJ
     3 combo of 99

^ I think, so 29 legit hands I put him having, we beat 22 so effectively ahead of about 75% of his range that he plays in this manor
     does this make it a call?.... I have no idea! :)

the way you play this hand and how you catch this river is pretty sweet IMO, and with your perceived range for leading 2/5th ish of pot on the river is hugely +ev for villain to shove that range I assigned

So we're putting him on a bare float with QT high OTF then?! Don't think he ever in a million years has QT here.

Can't assume people play perfectly all the time. A hand like A-2 and J-9 could definitely reach this river and get a little excited, or think he's getting called more often than he is; a bluff is also possible.

I'm putting him on having about 30 decent hands he does this on the river with, we can eliminate QT if you want and just add a couple 2X hands, theory still works out the same

Can't count combos like this since people don't always play hands a certain way. Just as an example if you estimate he plays QT this way half the time then you count 8 combos.

yes but from the way this hand has played out I'm estimating villain is doing this with all combos listed, probably more.
lets say he doesn't have QT ever... which after reading this thread seems very likely :p
we can still say he can have A2 maybe a random 2X hand villain likes aswell, so effectively still around 77%< of the time we win, pretty sure I could never fold this. and I think you shouldn't either,

I just picture from villains POV, how often are you ever going to call your whole stack off here?
my opinion is, you got done over by FE. could still be an amazingly sick fold so alot of respect still.

I think he does this almost 0% of the time with J9 and QT never ever gets to the river. Even if you include both combos of A2s that are left then we're still only right 1/4 times. Against a fish just call it off (they value bet incorrectly and are probably wider pre so more likely to have 2x), vs a reg it seems like a fold (unless you know they love to turn stuff into bluffs but even then it seems unlikely they'd be trying to make you fold when your range is so ridiculously strong here.)

I'm not sure I can agree. what makes our range so strong here? villain running 18/14 is pretty loose aggro I think, so I'm inclined in saying he can make this move with alot, and take off on the river, it's not out of the question.
he's playing his hand here and can't ever be putting us on a house, surely a huge amount of the poker playing population would shovel alot of lower houses, trips and go a bit wappy with 2pair ect.
personally think it's more possible villain would min click JJ or 99 here pre, than us being beat on the river.
 22s, 99s is the only hands I'm worried we're beat by.

the villian who shoved is 15/11 and he overcalled the flop so he can't have QT

So I take it the only hand you feel you beat that is in villains range otr is TT?

If you know this why post the hand? 'I haz folded full house' bragaments?

Do you call with 99 otr?

I would call for 2 reasons. First reason is we just hit a miracle 8 otr to make a full house and in poker a full house is a good hand.

Second reason, I don't like turn action where it's checked round. If I am villain with 10k stack at 150/300/30 & covered by both oppos in multi way pot I'm thinking kerching full double up after flopping a monster here. I would be looking to set up a good spot to jam river or maybe play for stacks on the turn. After the flop action I can't rightly expect the opener with obv wide range to fire a second bullet so checking effectively takes us to the river with no further action. Now on final street the pot is bout 3.5k and we have like 9k so really we have played our big hand like shit.

The thing to remember is we DID NOT have a big hand until the miracle river. So we played our hand in keeping and checked the turn also. We could have repped loads on the turn, got value from j and draws and inflated the pot, but chose to check instead. Villain can rightly assume we don't have a big hand either so his river jam is pretty good play imo. After our small blocker lead there is now over 5k out there and unless you hit some miracle river it's a good squeeze set up. In fact the move is so strong it even gets miracle full house folding. Villain can be turning smaller pp or 9 into bluffs here all day long. I would praise the Lord and call quickly.

i was happy with my fold until i showed it to some people and some said snap and some said fold so i posted it here to see what people thought, maybe i shoulda left off the bit where i folded but w/e

Seems huuuugely optimistic to think a reg, who probably has a bunch of other tables going, is gonna get freakishly ool here against another reg in this spot. Folding just cannot be bad.

Wins thread!

you're so good.

It upsets me for a second, then I remember I consider you a friend and then it cheers me up you're so good.

If villain is a reg, i cant see him shoving here for value vs ur sb calling range with worse. Fold seems like the right decision to me and doesnt seem close. Also pf seems fine. 88 is prob bottom of my range to call in this spot and 3b/5b seems spewy without good reason.

I think calling pre-flop is a perfectly fine play