blonde poker forum

 42 runners 16 left
payout top 8

Average stack 35K blinds 1-2K 300A

8 handed
utg raises 6k (41k) played on same table at start of comp in the reload period which everyone sems to play it like a rebuy lol. He's loose aggressive likes to limp call and donk alot. Took plenty off him earlier ;)...
My image at this stage is quite tight only a few raises in last level or two mainly nothing too crazy just picking spots and nicking back my blinds.  But earlier on he would remember me raising about 8 times on trot so probably thinks i'm mental or tez.

Folded round to me on button and find 88 playing 38k

WWYD???

Think I put them in.

Meh, I can live with a fold here.

3x utg when avg stack is 17bbs from a guy you have already said likes to limp call, doubt he is folding to us and we're not in great shape against much.

If he is limping a lot and not raising much then this must be an easy fold to an UTG raise?

Loose aggressive players don't do much limp calling mind.

Think it's a fold from a serial limper who's raising UTG, could be a flip but I'd rather us not get it in bad shape here.

Would raise to 15k with a view to getting it in if he shoves.

If you were oop I would probably jam.

The raise will put him in a tough spot with a marginal hand and
if he does call , which he likes to do , then we can re evaluate on flop.

With 20bbs I dont mind racing plus you have fold equity.

Im folding here
will be better spots than this to steal and get chips

Vote = fold

Sorry Jim but this is jam or fold, making it 15k would be pretty tez imo.

What would you jam here MC? JJ+, AQs+, AKo?

Going with TT+, AKo. He's should be tight here, the whole table will be pretty short so plenty of reship stacks to worry about. 3xing utg off 20bbs is a clue of strength as well.

Shove and watch him fold 99 face up.

But in all seriousness i agree with muckthenuts, wanting to cry inside with 99 though

The piece of information you are not telling us is- is he positionally aware? Does he play more hands from late position, or is he playing about the same number everywhere.

It's difficult to solve this problem on a poker forum since only you can guess what his range is since you were there and we weren't, but if you knew what his opening range was, then you wouldn't need to ask us.

Nah don't think he's positionally aware tbh, seemed to play most hands oop from what i saw. He just played pretty bad from where I was sat ( watch him turnout to be a blonde )  ;hide;

But ya quite right I was there and you lot wasn't so yeh i have a better idea of his opening range and i figured it to be ya normal Ax Kx small pairs bla bla.. But just wondered if folding was being too nitty did think about it  for a second but against villain couldn't really find the fold.

Anyway I shipped it in and he looked at his watch lol think it was about 12:40 and said "fuck it I guess I'll call" and turns over 44

And a flop of 646 and brick brick was good enough for him too take 80k ish pot and his fist pump and bang on the table was all that she wrote..

I took it magnanimously as always said nice hand good luck all and drove back home.

All about variance  :)

Online Id snap this in. Live I think its a trivial fold

Snap what? The raise?

i assume snap jam?

confirmed snap jam

muck 'em

I think it's correct to say it's a trivial fold with the reads OP gave (maybe not trivial since 99 is close and TT is an easy get in), however since he ended up having 44 in the hand, (which given OPs description we wouldn't expect him to open in this spot in the first place), AND he called (which doesn't really match to OPs description) then it actually proves that OPs reads are either bad, or (more likely) that he has placed too much significance on a tiny sample of hands, and used that to deviate from a standard line.

What I mean by this is OPs read "He's loose aggressive likes to limp call and donk alot" may give the impression that villain limps small pocket pairs, suited connectors, hands he wants to see a flop with, but in actual fact we haven't seen enough hands (nor enough, if any, showdowns to eliminate certain hands from his range in this spot.

Maybe he played that way in the rebuy period, but now is playing different (everybody does)?

Maybe the times he limp/called he had suited connectors or off suited broadways.

The theme of the week is variance and sample sizes - same applies to making reads based on small number of hands. It's fair enough to label someone as a weak player if you see them limp utg with 52o, but to depart from a standard jam because you've ruled out certain things that aren't possible to rule out (him opening small pairs), you've made a big mistake.

nice post and good to know. But not as good to know that at least you can't last the distance and stay up shagging all night. 1 o'clock in the morning in Tallinn with fit bird and you are posting in PHA. Live the dream

Yes, I meant snap jam.

As Alex stated above, with the reads given then i think its a fold.

However, I think that these kind of hands are sometimes random acts. Sometimes rec's play a certain way and then will randomly play a single hand in some ridiculous type of way (as seen in the OP). Villain may play exactly as our reads state 99% of the time, then do this 1% of the time. He could be bored, "have a feeling", "love this hand", "4s have been coming", I could go on.

Im not saying that we shouldn't base our lines on a read we had on a guy an hour ago (that's just retarded), but sometimes people definitely just do random things randomly.

@Jase, I'd look at it the other way around - I've done my job and she was dead to the world at 1am ;)

lol. Wp

Thanks for all the feed back, think I've described villain badly tbh.. Should of just put bad rec I guess.
Against most players your right i shouldn't be in great shape vs a Utg 3x raise when average stack is 17 bigs... Seem to get myself in these spots a lot, quite frustrating as i felt comfortable at the table, will learn and move on.. Think maybe the fact that stacks were getting short and blinds getting juicier and I didn't put villain on strong range, thought it would get through a high % of time, but when he called I was surprised to be a massive favourite, win this hand and I'm double average with a FT pretty much locked up.