blonde poker forum

Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 02:51:06 PM



Title: Advice Welcome
Post by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 02:51:06 PM
Last nights comp 16.50 buy in on stars 4k gtd
347 runners

Hand 1
At this point there were 57 runners left and it paid top 42

PokerStars Hand #89914079847: Tournament #648795406, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (250/500) - 2012/11/27 17:03:20 ET
Table '648795406 26' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: QuadsKilla (19004 in chips)
Seat 2: RuPrettygirl (13976 in chips)
Seat 3: CFC2012 (18536 in chips)
Seat 4: Kleberson26 (9249 in chips)
Seat 6: paul-klassen (16714 in chips)
QuadsKilla: posts the ante 60
RuPrettygirl: posts the ante 60
CFC2012: posts the ante 60
Kleberson26: posts the ante 60
paul-klassen: posts the ante 60
Kleberson26: posts small blind 250
paul-klassen: posts big blind 500
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CFC2012 [ 2c 2h ]
QuadsKilla: folds
RuPrettygirl: raises 500 to 1000
CFC2012: calls 1000
Kleberson26: folds
paul-klassen: calls 500
*** FLOP *** [  9d 2s 5c ]
paul-klassen: checks
RuPrettygirl: bets 1384
CFC2012: raises 2116 to 3500
paul-klassen: folds
RuPrettygirl: raises 2116 to 5616
CFC2012: raises?

My question here is what would be the right amount to raise. Is it a push or flat call?

I have a few hands that I will post with out the result... all the results can be seen in the Rail part of the forum.

Im sure in a few of these that I will open myself up to some abuse but given the general feedback from the forum lately all opinions are welcome and hopefully will help me learn.

Hand 2

At this point there were approx 9 ppl left and I had folded a lot of BB to a raise from Seat 2...

PokerStars Hand #89921044875: Tournament #648795406, $15.00+$1.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVI (3000/6000) - 2012/11/27 19:26:37 ET
Table '648795406 29' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: CFC2012 (120485 in chips)
Seat 2: GodDamnNuts (131766 in chips)
Seat 3: pithachr (167720 in chips)
Seat 4: ammazza77 (66464 in chips)
Seat 5: ZorroMP (203757 in chips)
Seat 6: negodri (350808 in chips)
CFC2012: posts the ante 750
GodDamnNuts: posts the ante 750
pithachr: posts the ante 750
ammazza77: posts the ante 750
ZorroMP: posts the ante 750
negodri: posts the ante 750
ammazza77: posts small blind 3000
ZorroMP: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to CFC2012 [ 6h 7h ]
negodri: folds
CFC2012: calls 6000
GodDamnNuts: raises 14000 to 20000
pithachr: folds
ammazza77: folds
ZorroMP: folds
CFC2012: calls 14000
*** FLOP *** [ 7d 5s 4h  ]
CFC2012: checks
GodDamnNuts: bets 22222

My question here whats the right move? lay it down with top pair and open ended cause we think he has overs? or come over the top hoping he lays it down?

Start with these 2!!

Thanks


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: Pugwashed on November 28, 2012, 03:23:18 PM
Hand 1) Fold pre, call flop

Hand 2) Fold to the 3bet


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: mondatoo on November 28, 2012, 03:29:48 PM
Hand 1 fold pre, odd's of hitting a set are 20/1 so you aren't getting price to call. As played just call his flop cb for a few reasons, this couldn't really be a dryer flop, consider what villain's range is and then the % of that range that could've hit this flop, when you raise here with someone still to act you look so so strong, I'm hating life if I'm villain with an overpair. Also by just calling you give they other opponent a chance to get out of line whereas he's always just going to play straightfoward as well as giving villain the chance to barrel off with air.

Hand 2 open limping at this stage is a mistake and it's something a lot of new players will do and have a polarized range to either nuts or weak hands that they want to see a flop with, as you are going to have a weak hand a lot more times than nutted hands a lot of players are going to put you in a tough spot both pre and post flop were you are going to fold a lot of the time and thus wasting chips.

Calling pre is also a mistake as stacks are too shallow and your out of positon post flop and going to most likely end up missing and check/folding the flop, even now when you've flopped the lot you still aren't loving life.

As played I'd check call and check decide on the turn, going with it on most turns if he bets again. By doing this we allow him to continue with his bluffs where if we check/raise here he's just going to fold most of the time or he'll  3 bet jam/call your all in and have you beat a lot.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 03:40:19 PM
Mondatoo..

Thats brilliant thanks for that..

I didnt play either hand as you suggested but I do see your points and they make perfect sense!


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: mondatoo on November 28, 2012, 03:51:29 PM
Mondatoo..

Thats brilliant thanks for that..

I didnt play either hand as you suggested but I do see your points and they make perfect sense!

Nps, congrats on the result, glgl.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: Honeybadger on November 28, 2012, 04:15:36 PM
odd's of hitting a set are 20/1

Hmmmm...


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: cambridgealex on November 28, 2012, 04:20:31 PM
odd's of hitting a set are 20/1

Hmmmm...

Yeh lol wot?


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: cambridgealex on November 28, 2012, 04:29:51 PM
Based on the play I saw in that comp, I gotta disagree with Monda that raising 22 on the flop is bad. I saw Chelsea boy craise/4b the flop with JJ on 952 and villain 5b shoved the flop with A6o! No way villain is folding a m overpair at any point and probably not any pair at all. We are very deep so we wanna be getting money in and raise the flop.

Also disagree with Monda's post flop advice about the 67. Not deep enough to do anything other than raise and get it on on the flop. We've flopped massive and have loads of equity vs any hand. Don't wanna wait till the turn where or equity either halves to 20-25% or we get there and we're oop so harder to get paid, gotta expect villain to cb over pairs when the turn improves us.

Flop is well played on both, pre is less so.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: pleno1 on November 28, 2012, 04:48:38 PM
the AQ hand was by far the biggest hand you shuld have posted.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: mondatoo on November 28, 2012, 04:55:29 PM
odd's of hitting a set are 20/1

Hmmmm...

I thought odds of flopping set was 20/1 ? (meant flopping not hitting)

Edit : I'm being a clown lol, at least I know what I mean.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 05:15:09 PM
the AQ hand was by far the biggest hand you shuld have posted.

This was another one from the night before
comp $4.40 4max 1000 cap

I was 6 of 17

PokerStars Hand #89863234339: Tournament #648795249, $4.00+$0.40 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXIII (1250/2500) - 2012/11/26 17:03:59 ET
Table '648795249 119' 4-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 2: Chugun_RU (128459 in chips)
Seat 3: 23VITO7 (60432 in chips)
Seat 4: CFC2012 (148390 in chips)
Chugun_RU: posts the ante 310
23VITO7: posts the ante 310
CFC2012: posts the ante 310
Chugun_RU: posts small blind 1250
23VITO7: posts big blind 2500
*** HOLE CARDS *** Ad Qc
CFC2012: raises 7500 to 10000
Chugun_RU: folds
23VITO7: calls 7500
*** FLOP *** [  7d Qs 3h ]
23VITO7: checks
CFC2012: bets

What would you bet here?


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: mondatoo on November 28, 2012, 05:19:38 PM
Based on the play I saw in that comp, I gotta disagree with Monda that raising 22 on the flop is bad. I saw Chelsea boy craise/4b the flop with JJ on 952 and villain 5b shoved the flop with A6o! No way villain is folding a m overpair at any point and probably not any pair at all. We are very deep so we wanna be getting money in and raise the flop.

Also disagree with Monda's post flop advice about the 67. Not deep enough to do anything other than raise and get it on on the flop. We've flopped massive and have loads of equity vs any hand. Don't wanna wait till the turn where or equity either halves to 20-25% or we get there and we're oop so harder to get paid, gotta expect villain to cb over pairs when the turn improves us.

Flop is well played on both, pre is less so.

I didn't say the flop 22 was bad, but it's not the best line on this flop in general, I didn't have the 5b info. I believe OP wanted overall adivce not just what to do vs a maniac that 5bs 952 flops with A6, otherwise would've been good to include that info.

We've l/c pre, c/r here villain folds AK most of the time whereas if we c/c villain may try and get us to fold weak one pairs by barrelling turn. We also have back door hearts so our equity isn't always going to decrease as you say.



Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: MC on November 28, 2012, 05:26:18 PM
odd's of hitting a set are 20/1

(http://us.123rf.com/400wm/400/400/phoenixman/phoenixman1106/phoenixman110600065/9729162-finger-is-pressing-on-the-true-and-false-statements.jpg)


Hand 1, fold pre
Hand 2, fold pre
Hand 3, 2-2.5x pre, as played I would bet about 8k.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: cambridgealex on November 28, 2012, 06:18:07 PM
odd's of hitting a set are 20/1

Hmmmm...

I thought odds of flopping set was 20/1 ? (meant flopping not hitting)

Edit : I'm being a clown lol, at least I know what I mean.

If the flop had one card instead of three you'd be close :P


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: EvilPie on November 28, 2012, 06:29:32 PM
20/1 is a pretty good guide for the implied odds you need to make set mining profitable. Personally I go as low as 12/1 but when it's 22 you have to account for flopping a set and doing your stack.

Actual odds are way lower. Think it's somewhere around 8/1.



Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: mondatoo on November 28, 2012, 06:53:01 PM
20/1 is a pretty good guide for the implied odds you need to make set mining profitable. Personally I go as low as 12/1 but when it's 22 you have to account for flopping a set and doing your stack.

Actual odds are way lower. Think it's somewhere around 8/1.



Yeah I meant implied not actual, will blame it on fact I was busy grinding whilst I posted, wanted to get in there 1st with my incred pha analysis, then Alex ripped it all apart.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 06:57:20 PM
I appreciate all the advice and hopefully it will help me improve my game and keep this winning run going :)


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: Honeybadger on November 28, 2012, 07:33:21 PM
Odds of flopping a set are about 7.5 to 1.

Implied odds means something totally different. It means the amount of money you can expect to make on average after you hit your hand. There is no set formula for calculating the necessary implied odds you need in order to make set-mining profitable. It is a judgement call every time. The traditional rule of thumb is that there should be around 20 times the amount you have to call preflop remaining in an opponent's stack in order for it to be profitable to set mine. This is not the same as saying your implied odds are 20 to 1 though! Just because he has 20x remaining in his stack it does not mean you are guaranteed to win this 20x postflop every time you flop a set. Sometimes you will flop a set and still lose. Other times you will flop a set and fail to get much action. That is why we usually require around 20x remaining in effective stacks... because we are only going to get a percentage of this on average.

If you somehow know someone has AA and will never fold on the flop then you could profitably call a preflop bet even if there was only around 9 times the bet left in effective stacks (note not 7.5 times, since sometimes you will flop a set and his AA will outdraw you on turn or river). And in a multiway pot you don't need effective stacks to be 20x the preflop bet since you are more likely to win one of these stacks so you likely have your implied odds. Also, if you are ever able to either get your pocket pair to showdown and win unimproved, or bluff a better hand out of the pot postflop, then you don't need as much remaining in effective stacks either since your postflop equity is increased.

That general rule about needing 20x is nothing more than a basic rule of thumb, and it does not always apply anyway. For example, it is usually a leak to call a 3x BTN open (from a competent player) from the SB with 22 even if the BTN has a 100BB stack. The reason for this is that the BTN's range is so wide that he will rarely pay you off when you do hit a set, and yet whenever you don't hit a set you will pretty much always lose the pot through getting bluffed off at some point. Against a complete calling station who will pay you off when you flop a set then it would often be profitable to set mine. Or against a really passive opponent who will sometimes let you get 22 to showdown it would also sometimes be profitable.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: MC on November 28, 2012, 08:30:50 PM
I hope you didn't write all that for Monda's benefit because he already knew all that, he was just being a clown.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: Honeybadger on November 28, 2012, 08:49:07 PM
I was obviously writing it for OP's benefit.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: MC on November 28, 2012, 08:56:00 PM
I was obviously writing it for OP's benefit.

Fair enough then :)

A very good explanation as always...


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: chelseaboy on November 28, 2012, 09:06:41 PM
Very good explanation!!

Thanks


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: cambridgealex on November 28, 2012, 10:26:13 PM
Think Monda needed it tbf ;)


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: tikay on November 28, 2012, 10:28:51 PM
Think Monda needed it tbf ;)

Please!

It is Monta, not Monda.


Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: tron1ft8 on November 29, 2012, 12:05:51 AM
i like to occasionally 3 bet the 1st hand! people will call far too wide and you have position and can take away a bigger pot on a lot of flop, your continuation bet should be about 1/3 of the pot imo on a lot of flops. and play it from there just another line to consider maybe.



Title: Re: Advice Welcome
Post by: JasiuZ on November 30, 2012, 07:43:18 PM
..