blonde poker forum

http://weaktight.com/5269462

HERO is imfromsweden, villain is pleno1.

Thoughts on my range on the river and how you would see it from villains perspective, calling ranges, bottom of my ranges, bluffs yada yads.

Discuss :)

I think checking back some flush draws on this texture of flop is a very good play some of the time. This is the sort of flop that you would be expected to check back with a good chunk of your zero-equity air, since it hits his range harder than yours. So this protects your check back range somewhat. It is also ultra tricksy, and you deserve a medal when you check back a FD and then the flush hits on the turn.

His river bet is 2xpot ish fwiw

More info..

He has seen me check back ak on kq2 and 33 on 936

Have also checked back a bunch of guthsots on the flop vs him too as well as some middling cards. So my range here ott is anything but cPped

Given his overbet of pot you can have atc to jam, he needs one end and not the other of his polarised range to call

If he makes the bet without a Polarised range he needs to know his villain really well to call him off

with the probable exception of JJ I think he can have all the boats and ofc quads, so I dont think his river vbets are THAT thin - don't get me wrong I'm sure he'll get to the rivver here and bet $80 with hands that are worse than 76 or the NF as a value bet - but I don't think he'll be going razor thin with something like Jc Th or Qh Jc - if he is then it's defo as a sick way to induce because those two hands are prolly winning more frequently when shipped on than called following the river overbet (vs you :D )

Main point being that I don't think you can really ship that wide for value with the info you've given us currently.

This being said my gut instinct about the hand from the HH is that he's bluffed the river with Ah 9/T and then called the all in or something mental lol

The second part of this sentence is correct. However, the first part is an incorrect logical jump. This is pretty much the worst possible strategy to use against a polarised range.

Hmmm not sure

The problem with this hand (as shown) is that it forms part of a HU match which by its very deinition has a dynamic, which we are not made aware of. Therefore we are looking at a hand in a vaccumm which will never be seen that way by players as played.

In terms of the hand so little happens tghat defining accurate ranges is fairly tough.

My "atc" comment clearly (or perhaps not) refers to the ATC that Pleno can get to the river with as played (bare suited Ah 5x for example in his non made hands). That said given he is IP Pleno 1 can just be floating the turn in hope of a nice river (which we can argue he got).

But given that you agree Mr Sweden can only call with the top of his polarised range, surely Pleno1 can get in his entire range and only expect to be called by the bojangles?

I should add,......... and therefore before he jams should satisfy himself as to how likely Mr Sewden is to have the Bojangles as played and with any given history

if pleno is to jam his entire range OTR then there is an argument for $80/call being marginally better than chk/fold - when its kinda funny how different the two options are lol

Obviously with the right reads/dynamic any exploitative move can be justified. But villain's nuts/air ratio must be completely out of line for jamming your entire river range to be profitable. If villain's range is only a little out of line then you are actually 'correcting' this error for him by allowing him to win additional money with the nutted part of his range.

There are 2 problems with assigning ranges in this hand thou

1. The lack of flop action
2. The runner runner pair makes a huge difference than to river pairing flop


I think we have to ask what made hands (incl nfd) does mr Sweden c/r on flop and  does he ever donk? This can help narrow his range markedly.

Then, would he c/r turn with sets and 2pr (2pr hands to specifically include a 6)

If we can give any meaningful answers to the above then we are almost there.

The only thing we cannot answer is whether he would turn a (non fh) made hand into a bluff then call it off

Yes it is a confusing/interesting hand, and ranges seem very wooly.

But I was just commenting on your suggestion that if his range is polarised then it is a good play to jam our entire range. This is completely wrong and illogical. For example, why would we ever want to jam a bluff catcher against a polarised range? And of course, if we believe he is polarised then a ton of our range has become a bluff catcher.

But what if he turned a made hand into a bluff (78, straight, bad flush) we are far better jamming than bluff catching with Ah 5x. Even moreso if we have a hand with blockers to his nutted range.

Surely he can only call if he is full (although Im guessing he calls marginally given pleno posted the hand). But let's say pleno holds a 6 here, it basically means mr Sweden can only call JJ 77 and 88 and we have to question the preflop action at that point in considering JJ, and is he c/r turn ?

Having read that back, I could have just made your point for you with the "holding a 6" hand, not sure, just woke up ;0p

Think a bluff is just about ok with 6x. I would expect him to be bluffing this river with a very low frequency (particularly given what he knows about your ability to check back strong hands) so it really depends on how often you expect him to fold a flush. Worst hand I'd ship for value is 67.

Pretty much this is what I was intending to say, before I got side-tracked by Guy's idea about how to combat a polarised range. You phrase it a lot better and more succinctly than I would have done though.


Guy, response to you coming soon ... :)

But just to note: when we consider turning combos of 6x into a bluff we are not doing this to combat a polarised range, we are doing this to combat a de-polarised range. i.e. we are trying to fold out opponent's flushes, not his bluffs. If you believe opponent is polarised when he overbets it would be terrible to try to turn 6x combos into bluffs.

When you said opponent might be turning a small flush into a bluff I think this is pretty insane thinking. If opponent has a flush he is betting it for value, not as a bluff, and his overbet is not polarised.

hey,

when he went for 80 i figured he always had a big hand such as a flush or trips.

i had 89o

@ Guy

If villain is indeed heavily polarised to (effective)nuts/air then as long as he gets his ratios correct it does not matter whether you call or fold with the non-nutted part of your range; you have 'lost the pot' either way. More specifically, villain needs to have a ~60/40 nuts/air ratio for you to be indifferent between calling or folding (actually 62.5/37.5). So if he is bluffing with the right frequencies then your bluff catchers (and a flush or a straight are now bluff catchers) have EV=0 whenever he makes the bet.

The only thing you can do to make your equity worse than zero is to raise with either a bluff catcher or with air. He will fold about 40% of the time and win your entire stack about 60% of the time!

If your read is that villain is likely to be really out of line with his frequencies (you think he has far too many bluffs in his range) then raising becomes more interesting. But be careful, because if villain is only slightly out with his ratio then recklessly bluffing ATC increases his EV.

As an extreme demonstration of this, do the maths for a 50/50 nuts/air ratio (it is super simple) and you will see what I mean. Note that for villain to have a 50/50 nuts/bluff ratio is obviously terrible - but see what happens to villain's EV when hero jams some of his non-nutted hands.

If villain instead has an extended value range (e.g. small flushes) then turning a few of your made hands into bluffs is important, to put pressure on the bottom of this extended range. Obviously the more depolarised villain becomes, the more your own value jamming range widens - and so the more combos you get to turn into bluffs. Starting with 6x hands is logical obviously.

Does the make sense? It's kinda hard to explain in words... much easier with numbers/formulas, but they can look impenetrable on a forum post. If you are mathsy then do the sums and you'll see it. Or if you like I can put the sums in another post to show you.

@ Patrick

I am interested in your thought process on the river. Your instincts must have been telling you that either a) villain was polarised and massively out of line with his nuts/bluff ratio, or b) villain was heavily depolarised trying to exploit his perception that you will be hero calling a lot here. Which one of these two did you have as the reason for your jam?

I realise that you likely didn't think of it in exactly the same words, and it was probably instinctive. But your instincts follow logic too, and they must have been following one of these patterns. Can you think back and work out what your instincts were actually telling you?

Btw, if villain called you with something like A8 then it is a sick level on his part. And if villain actually bet A8 with the intention of calling your jam (did he call quickly?) then it is even sicker. That said, I'd have to do the maths to work out whether such sickness can sometimes be a profitable exploitative play, or whether it is always completely reckless FPS.

hey,

will reply when not on phone. but villain tank and waited to the last second (not slowrolling) w/a7hh

More I ponder this hand, the more interesting it becomes. Especially with what is going on beneath the surface with the ranges.

Patrick, given your perception of him having an extended value range (i.e. it includes flushes and 6s), what do you consider your value jamming range to be? Presumably the NF is too thin given that this also marks the likely bottom of his calling range? So it is going to be 76 (or perhaps a little stronger) at the bottom of your value range, right?

His bluff-catching range on the river displays something counter-intuitive. He might have an easier call with a hand like A6 than with a flush. And completely paradoxically, there is even possible that it is an easier call for him with a non-nut flush than with the nut flush! (this last concept is weird though, and would lead you to adjust further your value range)

I think I might have made a silly error in my last post @ Guy. I've been typing all these posts when out and about on my iPhone, so that's my excuse! I will check either later on tonight, or tomorrow.

The logic/concepts are correct... it is the exact figures that might be incorrect, that's all.

Edit: Just checked again in my head, and maths was approximately correct... villain needs a little more than 60% of his betting range on the river to be for value. I am being a bit dim today due to lack of sleep lol.

can we not fold the turn with 89o here more profitably than doing anything else?

Villain is swedish and had a v high c/r on both flop and turn I had adjusted by having a good checking back range in the flop but not quite mastered the turn in match.

Jozef thinks cb flop is fine but turn is
A little too thin for value.