blonde poker forum

Galatasaray v FC Schalke

Celtic v Juventus

Arsenal v Bayern Munich

Shakhtar Donetsk v Borussia Dortmund

AC Milan v Barcelona

Real Madrid v Manchester United

Valencia v Paris Saint-Germain

FC Poto v Malaga

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/champions-league/champions-league/winner


Who do we fancy and why?

Real v Man U is a tasty tie.

Is it a random draw again after this round?    Aside from Barca, I quite like Bayern.

Last time no British side was in the last 8 was 1995-96

Must be a decent chance of that this time

really cant see how Man U are 6th favourite

does the draw play out so that we have Barcelona in the next round?

Dortmund to get to the Semi finals at least, providing they do not meet Barca.

No reason why Paris Saint Germain can't make a big splash this year.  20-1 seems a decent price to me.  Also like Shalke at 66-1 as well.  Think both will win their second round assignments quite comfortably.

Anyone but Galatasaray who got a nice draw :(

The tie I least wanted for Celtic, very good team, awkward to get to, not the most hospitable city and very few tickets will be available.

 We're just going to beat  them and I'll go to the quarters instead.

Apparently the draw managed to be exactly the same results as the practice draw from the other night - struggling to get my head round how you'd even calculate the odds on that one. Any of the maths whizzes help?


This is made even more complicated when no team in the winners pot can play the team in the runners up pot who came from the same group , and no teams from the same country can play each other.

http://imgur.com/f1J9M.jpg

Not understanding that. Galatasaray came out the pot first. They had an equal chance of playing all of the other teams apart from Man Utd didn't they?

Running through the draw and taking out the teams that couldn't have been matched I get it as 6300:1 that the draw gave that result (in that order).

So 39,690,000:1 that it happened twice.

Not happy that that is the exact odds - since if Real come out first they've only 5 teams to pick from - so reducing the odds for the early pairing, and skewing the odds for the subsequent pairings.

Everytime I have seen Dortmund they have looked impressive, considering they are an underdog for the whole competition.

I haven't seen anything much of Barca, Madrid & Man United to say I can see them winning the whole tournament.

Dortmund were the team that worried me - although it would have been a fantastic trip!

Surely this only makes the chances of team A playing team B come out twice in a row greater? 

First team out can only play one of 8 teams and can't play those that are in the same country.  The big key is Galatasaray being drawn first both times, by the time it comes to drawing a Spanish team, there was probably only 2 teams they could play.

PSG def the dark horses. 20-1 does seem like a decent price, might have to have a little wager. Schalke aren't value even at 66-1 imo. They just don't have enough in the locker to make a run at this thing I dont think.

Yeah they are toast.

3 German sides in the last 8 imo!

ChipPrince must be doing cartwheels.

6/4 Bet Victor no British sides get through

Yep - but it still makes the calculations higher. Like you say Galatasaray and Celtic out in the first 2 meant the odds of the subsequent pairings were reduced.

Schalke in a terrible state at the moment though - whether they can get it back together in time??

Not 100% sure but I think steps have to be taken from the start to ensure 2 teams from same country dont play each other otherwise they could pick out a couple teams and be stuck

Dortmund are definitely the team to watch.