blonde poker forum

I am in 3rd position, this is the stars million final table.  Guaranteed $31k, $231k for the win

Arnon Shraga had been at my table a few times since maybe 3 tables out and is the most aggro of the other players at the table.  Stats are VPIP 29, PFR 27,  aggression 1.4, 3 bet 10.

PokerStars Hand #91229089797: Tournament #661020010, $200+$15 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XL (250000/500000) - 2012/12/24 6:39:45 WET [2012/12/24 1:39:45 ET]
Table '661020010 35' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: arnon shraga (17474501 in chips)
Seat 3: slyfox151 (4778576 in chips)
Seat 4: bullstopper (15272095 in chips)
Seat 5: yadio (3173065 in chips)
Seat 7: Krafty_lt (17732700 in chips)
Seat 8: Barbara52out (7313837 in chips)
Seat 9: rany01 (11435226 in chips)
arnon shraga: posts the ante 50000
slyfox151: posts the ante 50000
bullstopper: posts the ante 50000
yadio: posts the ante 50000
Krafty_lt: posts the ante 50000
Barbara52out: posts the ante 50000
rany01: posts the ante 50000
slyfox151: posts small blind 250000
bullstopper: posts big blind 500000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bullstopper [Ks Ah]
yadio: folds
Krafty_lt: folds
Barbara52out: folds
rany01: raises 500000 to 1000000
arnon shraga: raises 16424501 to 17424501 and is all-in
slyfox151: folds
bullstopper: ?

Gl

2 shorter stacks, 2 similar stacks 2of whom are in the hand

Guess it depends how much laddering means to you

Never folding personally

Yeah, the sub 10bb stacks make it a bit sucky, but not folding.

wow, hope you won!

glgllgl

just read blog.

ul :(

i guess you can afford 50p so I'll let you reveal the results.

The hand is genuine, it is clearly the biggest decision I have ever had and felt really nasty at the time.  I had an equally nasty one at the final table of the Sunday supersonic a month ago that I couldn't post because of the 50p rule.

I was thinking at the time that if I could get to 4 handed, I could deal at something close to £100k which is something I'd be struggling to turn down.* Then this happened.  Glad others would take the same route, it is hard to think straight when you have been up 24 hours and that much is at stake.

I was sat there thinking it was so unlikely that he would shove so big with aces, kings or queens in this spot.  He probably should, of course, but a lot of people just can't bring themselves to do it. 

Not going to get down on the biggest equity beat I have ever had., I managed a JJ>QQ and a ATs > QQ when I was short and there were two tables.

I might come back and do a proper calculator on it in a week or so to see if the call is right.  If anybody else wants to do one for me i would appreciate it.  Am heading off for Christmas in a couple of hours.

Cheers

* as it was they did try and deal 4 handed, but one of them was a complete clown around it, or didn't get ICM, and it fell through.  Unfortunately there was no karma this time.

was actually thinking about this kind of thing yesterday.  In stars bigger comps in the late stages there is quite a jump in payouts from say 1 to 5 and 6-12 (eg 5th payout is 5.5 times 9th).  My theory (which might be bollox) is that if you have an average stack with say 10 left it is worth flipping to get to what will be an average when there are five left and then just play to maintain your stack/pressure ladderers.

Having said that it doesn't really apply to OP as he has an above average stack anyway, almost average for 5 left - so if gambling is the best strategy for an average/below average stack, does it mean that being ultra conservative (vs risk of going broke) is best for him?

hmmm it actually seems like a fold

$eq in terms of price pool% is about 8.5% and goes up to about 11.5% if hero wins the flip (and original raiser folds).  Obv because first prize is only 15% or so.  

I think the best possible range for villain would be AQ TT,99 and hero is 60/40 fav, so he needs better than that ie precisely Ax.

I used http://www.icmpoker.com/Calculator.aspx - presumably it works ok.

guss you should include a10 too :)

i really dont think this is a simple 'gl'

he has a TON of pairs imo, way more then AQ/AJ type hands.

Im not sure what I do/what is best, but I dont think its a simple 'gl'

seems like with all these finals you can afford 50p a few times over.


Glad YOU FT'ed though and not someone I don't like lol.

You're right.

GOOD LUCK!!!

 I put his range as AJs+, AQ+, and maybe 88 to JJ.  I think you can add in half QQ combinations and maybe a quarter of AA and KKs.  As I indicated, I don't think it as likely he shoved those hands.  He was the best of the other players at the table, but I had probably sat with him for an hour or two, so had some feel for his play.

I was reasonably sure I was favourite vs his range.  What I don't know is if it is an ICM disaster vs his range with the big pay leaps.  Pleno has already indicated that he had AT off, but I don't think I should let that influence me.  I'd be more interested in whether I made the right decision based on the range I put him on, rather than his actual range.  It feels dishonest to make my decision look better by expanding his range, if that makes sense.

As an aside the original raiser was a rock and was playing less than 10% of hands over 100 or so hands (this is a guess as I don't have access to my PC).  Any calc should probably consider the chances he has a monster.   I will try and build that in too. 

I can't do the calcs now as I am phone only for a few days.  I guess I could do it, but it is so much easier on a PC.

As an aside there was a hand when we were down to 2 or 3 tables where I had AQs (BB) and the scandi on the button did a near min 4 bet.  It so much screamed of aces at the time, but I was too bad to make a fold and shoved instead.  This hand may have weighed when I was discounting some of the QQ, KK and aces combos.

I may try and get hold of the supersonic hand when i get back.  It was 9 handed, i was 2nd or so and I had A9 off in the BB and possibly 12bbs and SB had possibly 8 bbs.  It was folded round and he shoved.   Again the pay leaps are steep and big, so it felt different to what could be a standard call in a $50 turbo or $35 180 manner.  I think the possibility of a chop 4 or 5 handed could be factored in if I am feeling like a masochist.

I am determined to be better prepared next time this happens, even if it doesn't happen again until 2016.

Anyway, need to catch up on sleep. 

i think you are way off at the mill FT guys obviously a fish and KK+ are way more likely than JJ downwards. AJ/AQ almost certainly out of the question IMO. fold

He had AT tho

He has to have exactly Ax and never a pair to make it an icm call

I was just responding to AJ/AQ being out of the question.

I may be trivialising the situation slightly with it being such a huge shove with the money jumps being huge. Also taking a deal being likely should be taken into consideration. Still think I'd jam tho.

If you knew for certain that your stack was worth $130k if you folded and $180k if you won the hand, would you still jam?

When you put it like that, no

I had a feeling that the numbers were going to be something like that and it was an ICM error.

But difficult to think that clearly in 30 seconds* when you have been up 24 hours.  Will try and post a better analysis when I get home in a few days because I think both this and the supersonic hand could be useful to someone.

* I didn't want to dwell too long as there was a player to act behind, though thinking afterwards I frequently assume a big dwell is sandbagging and not that he has a difficult decision.

Tough.

I think I would be looking for any reason to fold this spot, as you are calling down a big stack instead of getting any fold equity, you are often flipping, pay jumps are massive and perhaps the table may have been ripe for some low risk stealing with your stack.

Saying that you only have 30 bbs, you clearly have a good vibe of the table and went with your gut instinct which was spot on to be ahead.

I think the only thing that makes this a fold is the amount of chips the shover has, and the likelihood that he has a pair and initial raiser is going to fold out an out if yours in his AJ or whatever.

I do shove, unquestionably with JJ and above.

I had a similar close call coming 14th in this and regret, a little, my exit hand but I know only too well that playing for that long will mean you are probably zoned in to play to win instead of fully comprehend icm.

Great score regardless, keep knocking on the door.

Agree with all this, but I am possibly more biased towards fold as the money would mean a lot more to me them a lot of others on here.

Very nice run mate and v unlucky.. Still a good score tho! :)

 I know (not from physical experience obv but you know ;) ) that you have so much more FE on these big finals with a stack like you have I'd so so so much more rather be the guy shipping with AQ than you calling off with AK. Obv horrible how it turned out very UL :(

Good result though but sigh x

This feels like a fold to me, not ran the numbers though

Right, ran the numbers.

All these assume rany01 folds

I have $125287 of equity after I put the blinds and antes and assuming arnon shraga takes the pot.

I have $173692 of equity if I call and win.

I have $30872 of hard cash if I call and lose.

Assuming a range that includes AT off, I lose $10.1K by calling.
Assuming a range of 88 to JJ, AJs+, AQs+, which is more or less what I put him on (and excluding big pairs for ease of stoving), I lose $15.4K by calling.

I think these numbers are optimistic, as the low variance line is always better in these huge pots.  This is because variance in $100k pots is never going to even out.

If Rany01 calls, it would be higely optimistic to assume the numbers are going to be better, so think I could add a few k to my deficit for the chance of Rany01 calling and having us crushed.

So basically, calling is the ICM disaster I suspected it might be at the time.  I only got unlucky because I made a really bad call. 

7am and same call others would have made in my defence.

Not sure I dare look back on that supersonic one now, but my instinct is that it is going to be a better result than this.

and the supersonic one, which I hated too...

I saw my cards and was really hoping somebody shoved before the button.

I will post the numbers tomorrow, if nobody wants to comment

FT of supersonic. prizes are $43704, $31825, $23947, $17960, $12572, $10177, $7783, $5388, $3253

9 left, this is the 2nd hand of the final table.   I can't remember the stats at the time, but FT just started so not sure how relevant how they played 5 handed is anyway.

Table is tougher then million FT: 2, 5, 6 and 7 are pocket 5 ranked; 3 are in top 100 or therabouts.

PokerStars Hand #89820595406: Tournament #657010008, $210.80+$4.20 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXVII (20000/40000) - 2012/11/26 0:54:22 WET [2012/11/25 19:54:22 ET]
Table '657010008 89' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: bullstopper (530062 in chips)
Seat 2: donvito1st (241961 in chips)
Seat 3: CardRouleTTe (327966 in chips)
Seat 4: TaurusK (265255 in chips)
Seat 5: FellipeNunes (550423 in chips)
Seat 6: mcnallyville (321324 in chips)
Seat 7: The Lag rat (714491 in chips)
Seat 8: akport (77758 in chips)
Seat 9: karabasych (378760 in chips)
bullstopper: posts the ante 8000
donvito1st: posts the ante 8000
CardRouleTTe: posts the ante 8000
TaurusK: posts the ante 8000
FellipeNunes: posts the ante 8000
mcnallyville: posts the ante 8000
The Lag rat: posts the ante 8000
akport: posts the ante 8000
karabasych: posts the ante 8000
karabasych: posts small blind 20000
bullstopper: posts big blind 40000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bullstopper [9c Ah]
donvito1st: folds
CardRouleTTe: folds
TaurusK: folds
The Lag rat said, "husss"
FellipeNunes: folds
mcnallyville: folds
The Lag rat: folds
akport: folds
karabasych: raises 330760 to 370760 and is all-in
bullstopper: ?

This looks like an easy fold

To my relief this is much closer than the other.

pre call we have $20527 equity.  If we hit, we get $28526, if we miss we have $11555.  So we only need to be 53% vs his range.

The table was really good quality from memory, so think we need to push edges.

I haven't played on a huge number of big sunday final tables*, so not entirely sure how much the average player tightens up vs your average daily mid stakes donkament.

But my base assumption is that most regs are going to be shoving wide here just through instinct, and regardless of the prize pool.

As it is, we are -$1100 vs top 20% and +$611 against top 50%, +$1357 vs any 2.  I think assuming he pushes top 50% is a reasonable base assumption. 

So I think call is just about right.  Though you can counter this by making my previous point about variance.  I have played precisely one $100k flip in my life (see previous).  So I am unlikely to get anywhere close to evening out my variance in $100k flips.  Though I have probably played several more flips in the $15k region, over a few years play, I can still be some way from the mean in those flips.  Luck does get close to evening out if you play several hundred k hands at $1/$2, but you aren't ever getting close to even on big flips at the end of big MTTs.

Basically, I think there is a lot to be said for taking the low variance fold line here.  I didn't in this hand, or the next one.

* and haven't lasted long on the ones I have played!  There may be an obvious reason for this.

Supersonic hand is a fistpump call.

Edit: slight exaggeration, I guess it's only a 'fine about calling' call.

But [  ] ever folding

Edit 2: for some explanation, run over the table equity here is huge, and this is a small blind shove for only 4.5 adjusted big blinds.

Your edit 2 is important here. In these you need to get big and stay big if possible and just abuse abuse abuse pre flop. A better spot may not have come, and it is very likely he has an ace rag lower you dominate.

I can never fold it.