blonde poker forum

http://weaktight.com/5403245

Pretty gross spot imo. Thay3r is a good reg, recognise the name from 2+2, playing a decent schedule of the majors. I'm 12 tabling H/L and Mil sats if he has searched me. We have 60 hands together and nothing of note.

Should we fold flop? Fold to 3bet? What do we do on blank rivers here if we call?

We can't call turn but I am just as likely to shove as I am fold

I have played him at hold em, but not sure I have crossed much in PLO8.  He is obviously decent enough at hold'em, but hasn't played a huge amount of games at plo8.

Think you have to at least call here, as more than half the pack gives you outs to your low.  Though all those cards that aren't nut outs give you two pair.  I am calling off any river bet with any low card that hits.  Nut low plus one pair ace high is generally good enough.  If we get quartered than am not going to beat myself up about it.

I think if we call the turn , then 9TJQ that look easy folds and everything else is a river call.  I suppose a third spade can be a bit pukey, and an ace is in a world of hurt if he is holding 2 and 3 to go with his ace.  I expect him to be more bluffy than most given his background, but still think one pair ace high kicker doesn't play well enough vs his range to call (I expect when he 3 bets he does it far more with AAxy than AKyz). 



All feels like Call is definitely better than fold.  Shove is probably better than call?   

This seems a close spot to me. I think that jamming is marginally the best play. This would be for (very?) thin value. The reason I prefer jamming the turn is that, although our equity is good (not great obviously) vs his range, we have fairly poor visibility on the river. Being OOP makes this lack of visibility a problem.

I suppose we might also have a teeny tiny bit of fold equity vs hands that would be making a FTOP mistake by folding - although obviously you'd expect that villain is very rarely going to be bet/folding here. That is not the reason for jamming of course, but it does add a little extra incentive.

Also, I prefer just folding on the flop.

I think this is the key issue in the hand. I think it just has to be a fold against someone that i can presume is good. The turn was a horrible spot, I went through all 3 options- I think i could find a convincing argument for all three here, which is rather annoying. It is so hard to work out equities in a spot like this, its hard to know what quality of aces he would 3bet/is this all AA hands etc.

i dont like the call as we are going to have close to 50% of ours starting stack in the pot before river is dealt

we have outs to 1/4 or 1/2 the pot but do we have outs to 3/4 or scooping the pot

if we call the turn and we are facing a shove what do we do with TpTk its omaha hi lo even 2 pair is weak

as been said already folding flop is maybe the better play i actually like donk betting the turn better than calling it

I am slightly drunk now, so can't analyse it properly... but I think donking the turn could actually be really good, and is a line I never considered when looking at this hand history initially.

chk/raise seems a bit better than bet/call to me as I think we get a few (not that many) more folds from a c/r line + we don't isolate the pot against the strongest hands in his range like we do when we bet/call. When it checks through thats no big deal ever as we have NLD and a strong HI bluff catcher/SD hand.

One good thing about betting is we'll likely fold out the hands with equity that will either check back, or feel like they have no other option given our weaker range and their perceived fold equity to just bet/big call and we'll win quite a bit by getting these hands out.

Still think c/jam is the best option and I think its a lot better than c/c and c/f, b/f not an option and bet/call slightly worse I think (but if anyone wants to give me a strong argument for the other way I'll happily be persuaded)

(http://www.tickld.com/images/content/gif/1623.gif)

I did a quite a few simulations looking at this q few days ago. Will post something better later on