blonde poker forum

French Poker Series 1k Grand Final in Deauville. Villain is notgood, but also not really splashy or crazy, just bad.

400/800/100ante

I open Kc Qc utg to 1700. Really splashy peely guy calls in MP. Villain 3bets the big blind to 4800. I ask him how much he's playing, he says in french "about 60". I can't really tell because of these stupid 10k chips that are really similar to the 5k chips. Anyway, so going by this I call. Definitely an argument for folding pre, because I thought he most likely had a really good hand based on his sizing and position. Can't rule out some weird frenchy bluff though at this stage.

As played though, the other guy calls behind and we go three ways

8c 3c 2s The pot is about 15.5k

He super confidently bets out 12.5k. I now notice that he only has about 35k behind. I'm now 95% sure he has QQ+, TT and JJ possible but discounting these quite a bit.

I think there's arguments for FOLD, CALL OR SHOVE.

Don't think he's ever folding to a shove. I don't think he's ever checking a brick turn so I never see a river for free. If I get there straight away he pretty much always goes broke however.

What would you do and why?

shove because i like flush draws alot

+1

How many chips do you have Alex?

I have about 65k, he has ~45-50ish total including his cbet

fold pre, want to fold now so this sucks.

are we going to hit? if not best to fold

Although I will probs get flamed and it's maybe tez in many tournies is there an argument for just flatting here and if we brick the turn and your read is right you can fold ott and still have 60bbs to punish those Frenchies?

I think I would jam it in his eye and then start shouting for a club or a K Ballllll when he turns over QQ :)

It seems like an easy fold pre and post tbh...
no?

[X] he's not bluffing pre
[X] we're dominated by his range
[ ] just going to flick it in with a fd

 Kc Qc doesnt brick enough to fold. Gl bro i guess. Pre isnt my preference but i wont say never.

Very difficult to fold now you are about 35% v is range and to fold flop now seems pointless if you are flatting a 3bet pre and flopping so well.

As played I jam. But I'd probably open then fold pre to his 3b especially with your read.

For me part of the decision would be based on your read of his propensity to fold to a  shove because in a way that changes the odds. You suggest that you don't think he will fold ( that has been my experience of the comp ) . So it becomes a coin flip and do you want to busto on a coin flip ? Fold and wait for a better spot. Probably should have folded pre ? However surely it's a dream flop for a jam ? See why you have posted the hand.
            All down to your read.

J'ai quatre-vingt-dix-neuf problèmes mais un tir a flush n'en est pas un.

Def fold pre

If we assume he's never folding it's sort of a 65k pot, 50k to call. So against his range based on your read shoving seems bad.

You could say it's 12.5k to win 65k on the flop so 5:1. This is about how often we ping a club turn. Sometimes he has the Ac Ax though, and I guess sometimes we ping a K or Q, the Q especially leaves us in a screwy turn spot. Also we still have MP guy to think about.

So I think sigh fold, but this is all based on your read of course.

I hope my numbers are right, I did only just wake up and am writing on my iPhone :)

Noticing now that he has 35k is a poor excuse surely? Why not just say u wanted to see the flop because when in France.....

Don't see how u can fold now.

Besoin de plus d'amour

Think this is spot on and pretty much what I was thinking.

Calling seems about breakeven but possibly slightly-EV cos of the guy behind who might jam.

Seems better than jamming which is -EV since I think I'm getting a fold perhaps 5% of the time.

Folding seemed so gross but by elimination, the best option so I did fold.

I'm not having a go, just an inquiry... what was the thinking pre?

It was 3100 more he had 60k back I had KQ fkn suited ip vs a terrible player. Will lose 1 or even 0 bets on Kxx or Qxx (will be able to easily work out if I'm ahead or not) but get the lot if I make something better.

Since he made it 4800 vs a 1700 raise and call (small size). I thought he'd probably cbet more like 6-8k so pot won't be bloated (this was obv wrong but I didn't know that at the time and my assumption is pretty reasonable imo)

Additionally, there was a mega "rec" behind who was over calling 100% so get him involved too (who's range I dominate)

Plus 1 to all the pre flop foldaments.

As played... 26.5k/call

If you can say 'sorry' in French then that would be advisable too.

Actually 1 25k chip is pretty sexy.

imo KQ is a marginal hand utg. Think the hand is weak in 3bet pot and ur position is weak also cos you don't close the betting either pre or on flop (and villain prob gonna cbet). Part of your motivation to call is villain has 60k back, but what do we flop to make winning big pot a reality? With Kxx/Qxx we're talking about losing the min and we fold fd. This is on top of most time when we miss and just fold. Think you are being happy to enter the pot with disadvantages because you think you are the better player. That might be so but villain 1 has momentum and villain 2 has position and you have KQ in the middle. I would forget this who the better player shit and just enter pots where you have the advantages to get back on track.

I've never played a 1,000 live donkament before and doubt i will any time soon.

What I would do is 4b/f pre all day long with a 65k stack if i knew they played terrible, maybe even fumble my chips for extra levelling, then if they peel one off and we see this flop we stick it in his french eye

He definitely has an incredibly strong range he is French and could flick in a call from the hh do his range is most likely jj+ and potentially aq+ or ak+ meaning 4 betting would be bad

yer ok, cool.  Just interested.. I know it looks like an Aaron comment.  Hopefully you know it isn't.
This is what I figured.. btw

Never folding pre, especially vs villains a described.

Just get there, gl.

i should fold pre. like my fold on the flop now though. best of 3 bad options.

dont subscribe to the theory of "we called pre so we cant fold now" things have changed since preflop. Knowing that is probably going 3 ways im not a hater of the preflop call but im probably folding flop

I think calling the flop is by far and away the best option. Preflop is whatever, call or fold pre.

It's worth noting that shoving is very likely to be -EV and that folding is obviously 0EV. So calling...

Firstly there is a good chance you hit your flush. Secondly there is some chance you miss your flush and get to see another card. Thirdly it is very likely you win everything if you hit your flush. Fourthly there is some chance you win if you hit a K or Q (I don't believe it's necessarily a reverse implied odds situation either, he is still French). Fifthly you create at least one more decision point for your opponent where you can make good decisions. Sometimes he bets 12.5k again on the turn in which case you are clearly getting odds to call and hit. Sometimes he "traps" with his AA. Sometimes it checks through to the river and he has J4 cos he's a mechanic and the flat tyre is his best friend.

edit: didn't see MP called too. Preflop is an easy call IMO

^^^^perfectly summed up

Not sure what else you were hoping for when you peeled pre.

Obv in the fold pre camp but once you call and get this flop, just flick it in. Were you just hoping to flop 3 queens?

equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    40.828%     40.83%    00.00%              6063            0.00   { KcQc }
Hand 1:    59.172%     59.17%    00.00%              8787            0.00   { QQ+, JdJh, JdJs, JhJs }

Only given half the combos of JJ and 0 combos of AK. In a vacuum we lose 6k every time we jam if he never folds. So with 18 combos of QQ+ and 3 combos of JJ (giving half) he only needs to have 6 or so AK combos for us to have breakeven flop jam.

Since he will be folding around 25% of the time. So we "win" 25% of the 28k in the middle.

Think Alex is saying he's never folding to a jam

yeh has AK/folds to a jam <5%

Bleh, makes preflop really really bad in that case.

By the numbers we should fold, but ingame i just flick it in if i get there this way

Why isn't there any AA, KK in this mate?

Your combos seem way off there, I make it 6 AA 3 KK 3 QQ 3 JJ = 15 vs 12 AK. But you're also assuming that he 3 bets, cbets this size, and folds AK to a jam - some of these are less likely than 100% for sure.


On the other hand, this seems like a really bad estimation/guess too.

Derp, didnt consider our KQ blockers to QQ/KK :D

I don't mean he folds AK to a jam <5% - I mean he has AK and plays it this way <5%, and assuming he calls all other parts of his range (JJ+) then he folds to a jam in total <5% also.

Or do you still think that's a bad estimation?