blonde poker forum

As per the title:

Playing 8-handed and sitting 14/16 with 15 getting paid we have c15k with blinds 600/1200.

We are dealt AA35 padooki utg...

Think u need stacks here Ralph

Shortest stack is c12k, av is c40k.

As in the rest of the table

POT (see what happens)

(obv AI preflop if you can) Pot/call nearly very flop, im afraid it's not even remotely close, it does slightly suck but there is literally nothing else you can do.

There are a few flops you can c/f but really not that many - speshly online, and ESPCIALLY getting your money in first which always gives you that extra little bit if FE.

This isn't that cool but there is physically no other play I'm afraid.

So I pot it to 4200 and the big stack on my direct left peels.

Now a guy in LP decides to squeeze allin for c18K.

I have 10.5k remaining....

Cash bubble bubble.

How badly do you want to win, or cash big, relative to a min-cash?

If a Min-Cash is in your thinking, we can find a fold. If we exempt that from our thinking, I think this is the best spot we will find, & I have to get the lot in. 

Bit tricky to work out. 

If we win we are around average stack with 15 left, so lets say our equity is 1/15th of the prizepool. 

If we fold we still won't cash all the time, so lets say that we are gambling 90% of the bubble amount and have a 35% chance of winning.  Then try to work out which is biggest?

How do nlhe mtters roughly work out these situations?

get them in, if it was a sat you can find a fold

You played it fine if you get it in.  These things always weighted to the top few, so aiming for a min cash here is bad. 

anything but all in is really bad here imo

I never even considered that folding was an option until after the hand.

I just snapped it in but didn't like what I saw when the hands were revealed:

Me: AA35r
CL: KJT8ds
Sq: AA25hh

Obviously Billy big-stack flopped 2-pairs and then rivered a flush to scoop. At least he didn't waste them as he ended up winning the tourney outright. He's actually a nice bloke and a decent player (BV4ever) who has an FTOPS win on his CV.

PS That is my 4th pure bubble in that tourney from my last 13 attempts, grrrrr

the hands were like this?


AdAs3h5c    20.41%    60,645    147,272

AhAc2d5h    24.87%    90,005    147,272

KcJcTs8s    54.72%    360,086    0


don't think I've ever seen the nuts with such bad equity lol

Super easy fold

UTG or after the raise?

It's a shame that you didn't express this opinion/ catch up  earlier itt as I did actually e-mail a friend directly after the tourney and ask him if he thought it was possible to fold utg.

why?

would you fold pre here rather than open?

Yea fold pre, you're on the pure bubble with crappy aces. Id just rather wait for an overlay spot or a spot where i dont have to get through 7 players.

yeah you can't open, and then fold imo.

Having the other stacks would be useful because providing most people are a little shorter then its defo a open cos people are gonna fold more imo.

i would deffo fold........ but i dont think limping is out of the question....... its gotta be better than potting surely

blinds are 800/1600 we have 15k we can open to 5600 and providing we get 1 or callers only (people are 100% going to be peeling much tighter around the bubble, but we'll often get a stubborn defend from the BB) we're going to have a really easy pot AI or chk/fold on nearly every flop, with lots of FE at every stage, seems like a pretty easy play to me. I think we'll just pick the blinds up most of the time.

in my experience as well, in these tourney spots people start to stack off with high cards hands more and be a lot more passive with the middle/rundown type hands which is defo good for us in this spot.

Limp to limp shove or hit an Ace/ck fold OTF is an alrite idea maybe, I think if we had 12 or 13 big blinds I'd find a fold preflop but with under 10 near the bubble or not I think we gotta close our eyes and go here.

I'd actually consider folding once it's obviously going 3way.

Blinds were 600/1200.

we have 15k at 600.1200?

Oh, yeah that;s way closer so we can open to 4200... makes postflop a little more venerable, also in PLO tourneys 12.5 big blinds is way way more than you think. I think limping to limp/pot and folding both grow in merit with the slightly deeper stacks

The thing is that if we limp and the big stack limps behind the squeezer is bound to squeeze with his shitty AA and it looks a perfect spot to resqueeze with ours so we end up with all of our chips in again although there is a possibility the BS will fold now and we may get a chop.

I don't know much about Omaha, but open folding here with AAxx seems insane to me with 12bbs and a bubble we shouldn't be overly concerned with if this is an MTT.

Surely our hand is equatable to AQs or 99 in holdem? I guess equities run closer together in Omaha and we have the problem of it being Pot Limit vs No Limit, but folding still seems extreme.

no, more like KJo

Fair enough then, I guess there are flaws in this simplification/comparison but KJ would certainly be a fold in this spot in holdem.

I'm not a great holdem player but imo it's more like KJs or AJo.

KJo is a trivial fold whereas AAxx is obviously not.

this isn't really a spot you can use a holdem equivalent example for, the reason why AA35 is a very bad hand is that it has literally zero playability post-flop, you flop 24* or A** and thats literally the only way you can really proceed comfortably. However, if you can get all the money in pre-flop HU then you're loving it as you're a slight fave+ (can be in very good shape sometimes) and the poor playability is no longer an issue.

The dangers of this hand is tht we open to 4200 and get 3 callers, in this instance we really are fucked because our hands flops terribly and we're a LITTLE bit potstuck already, if we get one caller then we'll be able to pot/call quite a lot of flops and that'll be fine.

The other advantagee AA35r has in this spot is the generic starting hand adjustments people make in PLO tournaments, a hand like 679J with a suit for example would play very nicely against our hand, but will almost always be folded, AKT8 with a nut suit for example plays worsee against our hand, but will almost certainly give us action.

For me, that's the reason you'll never go too far wrong closing your eyes and potting in these spots.

i like this bold bit Dave. Makes lots of sense

The holdem analogy is kinda useless because everybody gets dealt KJo. Also unlike holdem tournies there are no antes and you can allow yourself to get pretty short in plo tournies and find some very good spots. I don't think there is any play here other than pot/call or fold. Really hate limping because we are encouraging others to limp behind/iso making it quite likely we are going to see a flop with us either being allin or pretty pot stuck. We don't want to see a flop here on the bubble with any hand.

So whether you want to pot/call or fold depends on the players behind you. My population read on omaha tournies is that people don't like to fold preflop. Obviously it depends on the stacks and tendencies of the players behind. If everyone has 10bbs and I'm certain that they understand that they shouldn't be peeling/jamming over the open on the pure bubble then I'd go ahead and pot it. If there's a bunch of 30+bb stacks and one or two guys that have been splashing around and I don't really know what they will do then I'd just fold and not really think twice about it. The latter is usually the case so without more info that is why I said it was an easy fold.