blonde poker forum

Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: ruud on April 01, 2013, 09:51:06 PM



Title: Just give me a number please....
Post by: ruud on April 01, 2013, 09:51:06 PM
How big are we going here?

About 500 left from 12000 starters, we have about double average

Big Blind is an absolute nit, Original Raiser seems solid, callers both labelled as fish


PokerStars Hand #96446679058: Tournament #713010287, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2013/03/31 18:38:25 WET [2013/03/31 13:38:25 ET]
Table '713010287 65' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Draaus (44613 in chips)
Seat 2: TheDude1808 (56402 in chips)
Seat 3: Sweet_Alisa (27985 in chips)
Seat 4: pinti199 (7227 in chips)
Seat 5: hotwater04 (60732 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (105882 in chips)
Seat 7: pctnet (53128 in chips)
Seat 8: HarryEco (116568 in chips)
Seat 9: hull-is-home (29922 in chips)
Draaus: posts the ante 200
TheDude1808: posts the ante 200
Sweet_Alisa: posts the ante 200
pinti199: posts the ante 200
hotwater04: posts the ante 200
HERO: posts the ante 200
pctnet: posts the ante 200
HarryEco: posts the ante 200
hull-is-home: posts the ante 200
HERO: posts small blind 800
pctnet: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qc Qd]
HarryEco: folds
hull-is-home: folds
Draaus: folds
TheDude1808: raises 1600 to 3200
Sweet_Alisa: calls 3200
pinti199: folds
hotwater04: calls 3200
HERO: ?????

Just a number is fine....

a plan to go with it would be lovely....

Thank you :)


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: TL900 on April 01, 2013, 10:24:52 PM
12350


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: cambridgealex on April 02, 2013, 12:18:12 AM
11555 and not folding


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: hotdog on April 02, 2013, 12:45:11 AM
11555 and not folding

so many diff possibilities to answer next step. what did you do ?


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: ruud on April 02, 2013, 11:06:14 AM
Ok, happy with my sizing here then....

Now what?

PokerStars Hand #96446679058: Tournament #713010287, $5.00+$0.50 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXI (800/1600) - 2013/03/31 18:38:25 WET [2013/03/31 13:38:25 ET]
Table '713010287 65' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Draaus (44613 in chips)
Seat 2: TheDude1808 (56402 in chips)
Seat 3: Sweet_Alisa (27985 in chips)
Seat 4: pinti199 (7227 in chips)
Seat 5: hotwater04 (60732 in chips)
Seat 6: HERO (105882 in chips)
Seat 7: pctnet (53128 in chips)
Seat 8: HarryEco (116568 in chips)
Seat 9: hull-is-home (29922 in chips)
Draaus: posts the ante 200
TheDude1808: posts the ante 200
Sweet_Alisa: posts the ante 200
pinti199: posts the ante 200
hotwater04: posts the ante 200
HERO: posts the ante 200
pctnet: posts the ante 200
HarryEco: posts the ante 200
hull-is-home: posts the ante 200
HERO: posts small blind 800
pctnet: posts big blind 1600
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Qc Qd]
HarryEco: folds
hull-is-home: folds
Draaus: folds
TheDude1808: raises 1600 to 3200
Sweet_Alisa: calls 3200
pinti199: folds
hotwater04: calls 3200
HERO: raises 10900 to 14100
pctnet: raises 38828 to 52928 and is all-in
TheDude1808: folds
Sweet_Alisa: folds
hotwater04: folds
HERO:???

BB is a total nit, we will still have 55 BB's if we fold, but it's a 100BB pot to win....

Is this still a slam dunk call?


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: PathFinder on April 02, 2013, 01:15:26 PM
Bit of a sigh moment. I call vs OR and all over callers but a cold 4bet all in from nit in blind is kinda sucky. Do you have any pre flop stats on him? Or is the nit read just observational. It really could be a fold here but difficult to do in the heat of the moment. His range would be QQ/KK/AA/AK and QQ isn't great vs this range. If he is a true nit then yeah sigh fold for me


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: gouty on April 02, 2013, 01:43:22 PM
Nearer to a slam dunk fold for me. Unless you have shown down weak holdings or been squeezing an awful lot. Some better nits do look to take advantage of lags.


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: jakally on April 02, 2013, 01:49:02 PM

If he always does this with AK it's a call, if it's just QQ+, or KK+ it's a fold.


Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: pleno1 on April 02, 2013, 02:38:57 PM
pot size is

200 x 9 (1800) + 3200 x 3 (6600) + 14100 + 52928 (67028) = 75428

To call its, 52928 - 14100 = 38828 /75428 = 0.51


Equity Win Tie 
MP2  40.21%  38.35%  1.86% QQ
MP3  59.79%  57.93%  1.86% QQ+, AKs, AKo


don';t think its close.. he's not folding Ak.




Title: Re: Just give me a number please....
Post by: JustinSayne on April 02, 2013, 09:26:15 PM
Sizing is a touch too big, i would be going 11775 or there abouts

Snap call the jam. Certainly not happy in the slightest, but folding is simply out of the question