blonde poker forum

There is a fairly unique opportunity in gambling tomorrow.  At the local horse track here at Gulfstream they have a bet called the Rainbow pick six.  It is like a jackpot in that you have to pick every winner to get the share of the pool but it is unique in that the winner only gets 40% of that days pool unless they are a single winner in which case they get the lot.  The rest rolls carries over.  It is currently at about $2m but, and this is why this is a great opportunity, tomorrow is the last day of the meet here so it must be won tomorrow.  All of the carryovers must be paid out tomorrow making it very much +EV even if you are guessing.  I am by no stretch of the imagination an expert on US racing but I hav been to Gulfstream 50+ times and probably 5 times overs the past few weeks.  I'm having a go anyway for $300ish myself but if any blondes want in then happy to accommodate.  Shares would be prorated to how much you want to stake.  I am not sure of tax implications here but I think we would get anything deducted at source back.  I have to head down that way now so will pick up a daily racing form and spend sometime on this tonight and go to the track and place the bet myself tomorrow.

If anyone is interested (I realise it is a bit esoteric but it is a good +EV opportunity) then state amount in thread and I will PM bank details.

In for $100 please.

PS Are you now in LA Stu or is it another Gulfstream?

$100 for me too, please.

Gamble!

$50 seems reasonable, would prefer stars to BT- or if you want a bet tomorrow I can do equivalent with a few firms, let me know.

edit: Changed stake like a pussy

Hi Red,

Too much value to not be involved, will have $300 too.

cheers

Is there any way we can get all the combinations with a certain amount of money as I (from a VERY quick google) note it is a 10c bet?

assuming a maximum of 14 choices per race - how many combinations are there?

edit/ forget this - assuming the very basic maths is 14x14x14x14x14x14 we'd still need $750k

2nd edit - still value, in for what I can afford, which is $30.

$100 for me too. I haven't a clue about horses but fancy a bash.

$40 please if that isnt to small a stake

speak semi regularly to a friend who bets the us stuff full time happy to garner his views (if needed at all)

Where is Jerry Gedrick when you need him!

In of course, do you mind if I offer it to a couple friends too?

I'll send for everyone, but how quick do we need to send the cash over Stu?

I'll have $100 worth if I can use Stars or Full Tilt?

If you're accepting stars or FT transfers I'll be in for $50

In for $30

I will probably close it off about 3pm tomorrow but will send  bank details tonight

Excellent, I'm definitely in then please and will know how much for by the morning.

If someone would take stars/tilt for my transfer that would be great, just realised my card reader is up at my university house and not with me.

I can take Stars from a few people just would really prefer bank Xfer for most of it.  A couple of hundred is no problem.

It obviously goes without saying that if anyone has any opinions on the races to chip in opinions on this thread although I am assuming that nobody will.  I stopped by Gulfstream today and there was talk of the pool reaching $8m tomorrow so there will be plenty to play for although they are a tough group of races starting with a maiden full of unraced horses.

Bagsy $50 of the stars!!!!

PAID by Bank Transfer, see PM.

Pick well, win the lot. ;)

Unfortunately I won't be home in time to ship for this sorry. Good luck to everyone in the syndicate tho!!

No idea what's happening, but want to be part of it :)

$100 by bank transfer, if you send me your bank details.

Gamboool. I'll do $200 if thats ok. Please pm details :)

Scrap the above, sorted and will be sent this morning by a kind friend :-)

Sorted Red, cheers. gl us.

$100 sent by bank transfer as per PM, thank you!

$200 if I can bank transfer to a UK account?

PM details if so please :)

have transferred $50 on stars

noticed there's a 100k syndicate here

http://www.twinspires.com/playerspool

thanks and GL us!

If I could transfer mine on Stars that would be handy, will send by bank if preferred tho, pm details.

im going to have to pull out apologies

my internet banking seems to dislike me sending to somebody new at present

sorry

I'll send for you Horsey, can sort it out later on.

I'm in for $300 Stu, will send via bank (with Horsey's) when I'm at my work PC shortly.

You are a proper bloke Marky.

very kind thank you

about £26 i made it will send as soon as bank decides to enable me to use account again

i blame mere :)

will post up views from my friend if/when he replies to my message

I'll take $200

Would it be poss for someone to pm me the bank details in the next hour or so (assuming red is offline!), as i've gotta head out in an hour or so and prob wont be back before the 3pm cutoff

PM sent to both.

 ;indestructable;

I, too, would like the bank details.

What exchange rate are we using?

$100 please.

PM sent to Mere and Kin.

Sent £226 from my bank, £200 for my $300 and £26 for Horsey's $40

Cheers for doing this Stu and gl us!!

Bank deets for me too please!!

Ed

Done.

Cheers Mark.

£132 shipped

Okay...cheers for the info Mark

For easy Maths and conversion rate Ive sent Red £100  =$150

Good Luck Us

I've sent Stu £66=$100. 

;goodluck; us.

£131.37 = $200 sent.

Letsagogogogo

ok i want in if Boshi's in..

In for $100 will ship £66 by bank transfer if ya can send me some digits plz

Thanks to Mark for the information.

£66 sent for $100.

Thanks Stu.

We are using 3 to 2    stars currently  £100  = $152   so this way Stu wont be left short or on the wrong side if price shift etc

so   £66  =$100
      £100  = $150
      £200 =$300    ..Im sure you all get it    :)

Good Luck Us

Sent. :kiss:

Looks like a good team on board, so leggooooooooooo!

Paid $30  .  Thank you.

Ok. in for $50, can someone PM me bank deets. ta muchly.

Cheers mate

Sent £66

ref: leatherman   

Lets fackin doo dis

£33 from millidonk.

I just had to have a piece. Dreams are made today!

Had to debate sending you his details, not sure we want your bok dinero on the firm ;)

Come on now. Be fair..

If we make it past the first then my bok is over, that's normally where i fall down.

Can someone PM me the bank details too please?

have had a brief message from friend regarding this, i will note he has told me gulfstream is not a track he bets at everyday so ....

race 8 field of mainly first time starters nice easy start, SWEET N DISCREET likely to be favourite unless something is burning the gallops at home good connections but will be in everyones perms. THE BOOKEEPER is from a low profile trainer doing well of late and can win with first time starters.

race9 THIRD MARTINI will be favorite but has blinkers off first time at a likely bigger price HE'S HOLLYWOOD has moved from a decent trainer to a very hot one and should improve on the form shown.

race 10 good luck in this will be needed, 10 of the 12 have at least one run that is good enough to go close here. JORDANS IMAGE would be a token pick the fact it has been claimed back to the trainer is usually a positive in american racing.

race 11 FOGANZO will probably be on everybodys ticket in the world after missing the start and running on late on its debut. ONE BRAVE WARRIOR and HERD MENTALITY both have decent workouts and are from trainers that can win on debut. The second toughest race from the 6

race 12 plenty will have opinions here and again a lot can win on there best efforts. One who according to the morning line will be 14-1+ is DIEZ a very hot trainer and looks the type who COULD benefit from first time blinkers

race 13 if your still in now well done ! NORAS SONG will be in a lot of tickets as a single entry its hard to crab the debut effort. HOW CHEEKY does not have much form but makes a upwards trainer switch and again should be a price.


Like i say this is someone i respect a lot but are just views to consider

FWIW, I used "spot "for my currency exchange, as below......


http://www.xe.com/currencyconverter/convert/?Amount=1&From=USD&To=GBP

Sent mate.

So what you saying Tony ?   :)

:D

£66 just shipped. Gl all.

I'm not gonna get too hung up on currency exchanges so long as it is in the vicinity.  Similarly if anyone needs to send by stars that hasn't please go ahead as I seem to be getting them fine.  I have a few things to do this morning but will check all of the transfers etc and post up percentages in an hour or so.

Can you send me your Stars name please?

Has anyone PM'd it over yet m8?

I know nothing about American Racing but spoke to a knowegable guy who fancies a horse called

" Hes Hollywood " in race 9

This is all I know

no

Alright this is closed now.  I will collate all of the stakes and figure out what we are doing and post here with percentages etc.

Sent on Stars, thank you, good luck us

great stuff mate, the only thing I really know about betting US racing is that horses dropping in grade is a good angle.

Sorry, meant to PM it and then got caught up watching Sprinter Sacre.

See you're sorted now though :)

Okay - the team is as follows:

Karabiner - $100
Tikay - $100
RFGQQABC - $50
Bobby1 - $300
Sharplea - $30
Bobalike - $100
Horsey - $40
TheDazzler - $100
Big D - $100
Byron Kincaid - $50
Booder - $30
Silo - $30
Kinboshi - $100
Mahogany Vic - $200
EdGas - $200
Marky147 - $300
MereNovice - $100
Fraser - $150
Leatherman $100
Millidonk $50
Me - $300ish (I will probably adjust my stake so it fits with the permutation)

So we have around $2730 ish to throw at this.  Am working on the perm now and have taken into consideration Horsey and Frasers views.  Will post when I know.  The rainbow pick six incorporates races 8 to 13.  Race 8 starts at 434est so 934pm UK time.  I will endeavour to have to perm finalised in the next few hours though.

Top work Stuart.

Now let's win please :)

This, I could do with retiring next week if possible.

Stu,

If it helps, I can make the selections for you using my Aintree Tipster algorithm.

Just say the word.

By my maths I have 1.83% of investment. $8 mill bink is like $146k that doesn't look right in ink but gogogogogo.

When we win I suggest we do a blonde trip to Gulfstream Park.

This.

Good work Stu....

hey just noticed that horsey said  " Hes Hollywood "  too  :)

PS  we should have more of these joint sweats  on UK  jackpots and similar other things .

Okay guys this is the proposed permutation:

Race 8 - 2/3/6/7/8/10/11
Race 9 - 2/4/6/8/9/11
Race 10 - 3/4/5/10/12
Race 11 - 3/4/5/7/10
Race 12 - 1/2/3/4/9
Race 13 - 2/4/5/7/12/

So that is 7*6*5*5*5*5 which is 26250 lines at a total cost of $2625.  This makes my share $195.

On that basis the shares (rounded so not exact) are as follows:

Karabiner - 3.81%
Tikay -3.81%
rfgqqabc - 1.9%
Bobby1 - 11.43%
Sharplea - 1.14%
Bobalike - 3.81%
Horsey - 1.52%
TheDazzler - 3.81%
Big D - 3.81%
Byron Kincaid - 1.90%
Booder - 1.14%
Silo - 1.14%
Kinboshi - 3.81%
MahoganyVic - 7.61%
EdGas - 7.61%
marky147 -  11.43%
Merenovice - 3.81%
Fraser - 5.71%
Leatherman - 3.81%
Millidonk - 1.90%

Just a quick work on this to manage expectations.  Although the pool will likely reach close to $8m today there is very unlikely to be a single winner and with our permutation there will probably be multiple winners if we win.  In reality whilst we have a chance of a very good score the likeliest result is winning between our investment back (or less) if all the jollys won and something like 10-15x if we got a couple of double priced winners home.  Of course there is a chance we hit the jackpot.  By my back of envelope calculations we have a roughly 14% chance of winning it all and usually in these cases the best EV is all at the front of the market.  Anyway I will get it on in the next couple of hours and GL us!!!!

Good Luck with this Gents

I wish you all the very best

nice work Red, good luck guys.

Thanks for putting this together no matter what the outcome..  :)up

FYPs

Just seen this.....we could have won but I wasn't paying attention....dammit

Great job Stu, this time tomorrow...

Blessings, grateful, etc.

Cheers for doing this!



Is there a site like the tote has which shows numbers of tickets left after each race?

Cheers Stu!

Now lets get that heater on the go!!

Okay guys we are on for the full amount but the ticket looks a bit different due to some non runners.
  I will post the exact perm in a few when I get home.

What time is kick off?

Stu says 9:34pm our time.

Hi Tall Bloke.

According to an earlier Post by Stu........


Race 8 starts at 434est so 934pm UK time.

We start with Race 8, so 9.34 it is.

Marv.

Beaten to it by Lord Spready.

Awesome, thank you

I have another question, but I'll look it up myself :)

Okay this is what we have:

R8 2/3/4/5/6/810
R9 1/3/4/8/13/14
R10 3/4/5/7/10
R11 1/3/7/11/13
R12 1/2/8/11/13
R13 2/6/8/12/14

There were a load of non runners as it is pissing it down here so the turf races have been cancelled and will be run on the dirt track instead so I have done the best I can in terms of ensuring we have the best options but it does make it harder now because a bunch of horses are running on surfaces they might not like but we are in it to win it!!!!

Excellent work.

Many thanks.

In redarmi we trust.

Race Results from Gulfstream Park this evening are here, up at Race 5 at present, so not far behind real time as far as I can see.....


http://www.drf.com/race-results/GP/USA/2013-04-05/D/5

Tikay, are these similar picks that you would have done?

Do they get your seal of approval?

As long as we are not relying solely on Fraser's pick in the last(or tikay's agorithm) should we be so lucky lucky lucky I'm happy ;)

I'm not sure what happened there but it was a cracking bottle of Chablis....

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/results

not got Sky where iam at the moment

has anybody got a link to at the races please ?

Not sure it's on ATR, but here is a good link m8

http://tykestv.eu/streams/horse-racing/at-the-races/

Is there a "/" missing in race 8 or is it a very  large field?

Favourite #10 wins the first......

!

 :)up

Excellent.

Nearly there.

Nice work.

Gonna need to win the jackpot here to pay for RSI treatment. Been refreshing results site for 10 mins flat

If we win, is it likely to cover the cost of a new keyboard?

The <ctrl> and "R" keys on my keyboard seem to be struggling.

ty mark   but wont load 

Oooh, we had the 2nd and 3rd places in the first race as well.
Is there a bonus for this?

gl to you all

this has the "minutes to post"  MTP that is usually quite accurate so you can find out when the race starts

https://www.tvg.com/upcoming-horse-races


which should save frenetic refreshing

ty ty

#14 wins the second.  Still alive chaps but gets harder from here

 :)up

Liking your work so far.

My phone battery may die but 4m tickets still alive after the two faves in first two.  Final pool was just over $7m so 70m tickets

We had 2nd and 3rd in the 2nd race too. :)

#7 wins the next at 6/1 but bigger in paper this morning so might just a few tickets

 :)up

1/2 way there. gogogo us.

I'm greening out.
Who wants to buy my ticket? $150,000 and it's yours.

 :)up.

Let's do dis

#11 wins the fourth leg.  Was down to 310k tickets before that. 

Now it gets exciting :)

Cheers for the updates red

 :)up

I'm starting to sweat (but that may just be a health issue).

4 up, two races left?

Yikes. Early night postponed.

42k tickets left after that one.  We have 25 of those.

Is this good  ;hide;

It definitely beats the alternative!

Hahaha I'm getting giddy anyway... Come On Baby  ;karabiner;

Think it means we are 1,600/1. Pretty good compared to 63 trillion to one when we started. :)

Yep like them odds better  ;)

well hello, we appear to be up and running.

good luck us.

Picture the scene at Gulhstream Park, similar in so many ways to Fontwell Park.

.

#11 wins the fifth.  We are alive going into the last but I don't think it will pay much.

.

.

.

superb work even so reds

11 was a fair enough price on the boards?

monitoring betfair but its pretty hard with pretty much no ££ on the meeting there

Wowzer!

Never mind "not much", great stuff so far by you.

 :)up

Oioi!!

What a great thread!

Good luck all of you. Hope you get there.

Yup.
Seems a bit churlish to say "I picked the winners on the first five races but I wish they had been bigger prices"!

Loving your work so far.

more pics before the last please tikay for good luck

Ok I'm sweating  ;goodluck;

How many tickets are left?

Awesome sweat either way!

Sick sweats, VBOL all.

Race time is 11.48.

F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5
F5

Last race 11:48pm our time.

Edit. Sick! For possibly the first time ever, the aged one got in before me.

Millidonks obv fell asleep the lightweight otherwise he'd be all over this...

HOLD

 :cheers:

We have 5 horses in the last.
How big is the field?

10 mere

F5f5f5f5f5f5

not running yet (according to betfair anyway)

Ooooh, thanks.

More chance to win.
More likely to split.

I'm happy.

11:54 according to BF

betfair market suspended they are running

and we have no idea how :)

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/entries

THINK this is the field. Race 13. Click calender for 5th April.

although it's suspended!!! drama

Stu probably booking a nice holiday!

according to betfair forum we are out

cracking effort

Noooooooooooooo

bugger, looks like the 1 won, 2 of ours in  2nd and 3rd.

Race 13, page 13. Just too much to overcome! Cracking effort Stu.

Great while it lasted.
Thanks Stu.

Ooooh!

How close was that?

Great effort Stu.

Stewards Enquiry, Objection, anyone?

Terrific sweat.  Thanks Stu.

great effort   ;applause;

Been fantastic fun! Thanks for arranging this Stuart!

great effort mate, thanks for taking the time to sort this out.

You cannot whack a weekend sweat.

How many shared the prize?

Nice one, great effort.

Sigh :(:(:( Ul Stu/team, can always hope you missed a ticket somewhere I guess. I went through the pages one by one having only got to it after the last. Cheers mate 

Doh, great effort though! Cheers for sorting it

So Close...  :)up

When's next 1

Amazing sweat, so close and yet so far...

Thanks very much for doing this Stu!

Very much this :)up

Bollox :(

Enjoyed the ride though.

No winners and we get in for 2nd in the last :D

Sure can sleep now, got all excited and didn't even have a clue what we nearly won?  :dontask:

Was good fun, thanks for organising it.  For a bit I felt like the group of guys from Luck that were hovering around with their lucky ticket scoop.

Click "5th April" here, then "Race 13"

http://www.gulfstreampark.com/racing/handicapping/results




13th race - Gulfstream Park - Friday, April 05, 2013
      
  Off at: 6:49   Race Type: Maiden Claiming    Video Race Replay
  Age Restriction: Three Year Old
  Sex Restriction: Fillies
  Purse: $28,300
  Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles On The Dirt - Originally Scheduled For One And One Sixteenth Miles On Turf
  Track Condition: Sloppy
  Winning Time: 1:48.28
Pgm    Horse    Jockey    Win    Place    Show
1    Sweet Gator Girl    Paco Lopez    8.20    3.60    2.60
14    My Pal Ariana    Mario G. Pino         3.20    3.20
6    Bahia de Oro    Hugo Sanchez              2.60
Also ran: 3 - Boston Garden , 8 - Gran Sabana , 12 - Sortaria , 2 - How Cheeky , 10 - Lemonsina , 9 - Madame President , 11 - Egotist
Scratched horses: Sparkling Soul  (Off-Turf) , Nora's Song  (Off-Turf) , Giacomo's Aria  (Off-Turf) , Hope's Dream  (Off-Turf)
 
Wager Type    Winning Numbers    Payoff
$1 Pick 3    11-11-1 (3 correct)    133.70
$1 Pick 4    7-11-11-1 (4 correct)    1,658.90
$0.50 Pick 5    2/5/6/9/11/12/14-7-11-11-1 (4 correct)    37.00

Can someone torture me further and post the distances  ;surrender;

Sorry guys my phone died.....so close.  Do we know what it paid?

4234.01 according to website

13th race - Gulfstream Park - Friday, April 05, 2013
      
  Off at: 6:49   Race Type: Maiden Claiming   Video Race Replay
  Age Restriction:   Three Year Old
  Sex Restriction: Fillies
  Purse: $28,300
  Distance: One And One Sixteenth Miles On The Dirt - Originally Scheduled For One And One Sixteenth Miles On Turf
  Track Condition: Sloppy
  Winning Time: 1:48.28
Pgm   Horse   Jockey   Win   Place   Show
1   Sweet Gator Girl    Paco Lopez    8.20    3.60    2.60
14   My Pal Ariana    Mario G. Pino         3.20    3.20
6   Bahia de Oro    Hugo Sanchez              2.60
Also ran: 3 - Boston Garden , 8 - Gran Sabana , 12 - Sortaria , 2 - How Cheeky , 10 - Lemonsina , 9 - Madame President , 11 - Egotist
Scratched horses: Sparkling Soul  (Off-Turf) , Nora's Song  (Off-Turf) , Giacomo's Aria  (Off-Turf) , Hope's Dream  (Off-Turf)
 
Wager Type   Winning Numbers   Payoff
$1 Pick 3   11-11-1 (3 correct)   133.70
$1 Pick 4   7-11-11-1 (4 correct)   1,658.90
$0.50 Pick 5   2/5/6/9/11/12/14-7-11-11-1 (4 correct)   37.00
$0.50 Pick 5   2/5/6/9/11/12/14-7-11-11-1 (5 correct)   3,774.10
$0.10 Pick 6 Jackpot   10-14-7-11-11-1 (6 correct)   4,234.01
$2 Daily Double   11-1   32.60
$2 Exacta   1-14   31.80
$1 Superfecta   1-14-6-3   826.70
$1 Super High Five   1-14-6-3-8   2,350.10
$1 Trifecta   1-14-6   69.00
Winning Breeder: Chestnut Farm
Winning Owner: Shane Grice
Winning Trainer: Diane Alvarado

sighs,  fell asleep and woke up to a text. from Marky saying we fell at the last.

Thanks for running tthis Stuff, crushing that we had 2nd and 3rd. Always a bridesmaid.. looking forward to end of next season already!

Thanks Stu. Don't really know what was happening, but it looks like we were close to winning?

As close as we could be without getting weighed in, went down in the 6th and final leg with a 2nd place.

We ended up with tickets on five of the ten horses in the final leg.

If one of them had won I guesstimate that we would have at least doubled our stake.

Yeah - I think if the favourite had won then we probably would have doubled our stake.  others would have almost certainly have been better although I was surprised that it paid so little with the #1 horse winning but it had a very topical name for the area in "Sweet Gator Girl" as the University of Florida sports teams are known as the Gators and you see flags and stickers of them on probably 20% of cars down here.  Apologies I didn't get a chance to write a final trip/stake report last night.....it was my wedding anniversary so I had to rush off as soon as the last race was finished.  Suffice to say I think we had great value and it was a fun sweat.