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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 05:14:03 AM



Title: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 05:14:03 AM
Blinds are 400-800

you have 14,700


last hand before the second break, 60 plaqyers left, way away from the money...average chips is 18k ish

you look down at

 Qh Qc

UTG

You put in a standard raise to 2500

UTG+1, Irish, in a lot of pots, seems weakish but has recently moved to table, goes all in for 7,200

Aces Trumper on the button, with 25,000 chips, asks you for a count and bets 12,200...the exact count you have given him

Three times you have re-raised Aces Trumpers standard raises, he has passed twice and you won a race the orignial time when short stacked

Your tournament is on the line

Pass or call?


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: mystery721 on January 20, 2006, 05:20:47 AM
pass no hesitation


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Royal Flush on January 20, 2006, 06:09:46 AM
pass no hesitation

I wish i was as good as you.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: thetank on January 20, 2006, 06:12:17 AM
Against Simon Trumper......I call


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Royal Flush on January 20, 2006, 06:14:01 AM
Against Simon Trumper......I call

Same


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Bazzaboy on January 20, 2006, 06:17:11 AM
pass no hesitation


Going by your previous posts I imagine you would have passed without Trumpers intervention  :D




I call here.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 06:19:40 AM
I call as well.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: 12barblues on January 20, 2006, 07:15:58 AM
I'm hesitating for a good think here.  There are a number of differences between this hand and the 'Mystery' QQ problem to my mind:

1. The short stack is all in so there is no folding equity against him;

2. The short stack is about half of your stack rather than a quarter, i.e. can do more damage;

3. The short stack had 9 x BB with the blinds coming up, so he needs to make a move soon, but is not yet desperate. He must have some sort of a hand to come over the top of your raise, but not necessarily a monster;

4. Miles away from the money, so there is no bubble situation for the big stack to exploit. That said, I assume Mr. T is a larcenous so and so and could well be at it to a degree.  So he must also have a hand to take on the short stack, but not necessarily a monster if he thinks he can make you fold;

5. Why did Mr T make such a performance of targeting the precise amount of your stack when he must have known he out-chipped you? I have no idea, except as a reaction to you bullying him earlier. Ignore it.

Overall, I think both opponents have hand ranges wide enough for a reluctant call, but it's a damn close run thing.

In theory, I ask my butler to bring my spare pair of brown trousers and call. In practice, I am pretty sure I'd bottle it and waffle on afterwards about survival and changing chip values, while Mr T proceeded to rob me blind for the rest of the tournament.
 


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Dubai on January 20, 2006, 07:49:16 AM
Trumper is usually a rock.
I call usually but pass here.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: SupaMonkey on January 20, 2006, 10:42:48 AM
Maybe i'm weak but i think i would fold here (and i don't know simon trumper). I put him on a highish pocket pair. In fact i thought that he may have queens but given that you have that then i really couldn't be sure. He has shown a lot of strength by reraising the short stack, isn't he saying 'i can take him out'.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: SKIPPYSKIP on January 20, 2006, 11:04:15 AM
This saying Simon has a hand that will be beaten him and probably beating you as well I would take the loss and Fold.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: ifm on January 20, 2006, 11:38:19 AM
I would really only call if i put them both on the same or similar hand (AX), Mr Trumper likes to "read" players, did you gasp and say "oh no" when the shortstack moved allin?
I would consider it a "race" and to be honest my frame of mind at the time would make the decision for me, do i wanna gamble?
I think you are ahead but to 2 overcards.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: yt on January 20, 2006, 12:03:44 PM
Call. 12barblues has done a great job summing it all up as well. In live tourneys I can fold Jacks but struggle to let go of those pretty pretty Ladies.
Nearer the bubble I might fold. but where you are in the tourney wouldn't it be great to take trumpers chips and romp home?
I'm looking forward to finding out what happened Can I guess that you folded and trumper had to show something like 67s?


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 12:05:10 PM
I put trumper on  Jd Jc

But I could be wrong... ::)


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 01:23:27 PM
I do not think I betrayed anything when the short stack moved in, as I was clearly going to be calling him. However Simon may have picked up something, who knows

That said I noticed all night Trupmer was looking for tells. On a tough call he had to make he was staring at the other player's neck (presumably looking for a racing pulse) on and off for several minutes

The question I had in my mind was, is this a squeeze play? has he bet the exact amount of my stack to attempt to get me to pass because he has a hand that probably beats the short stack but not me?

I thought a while......

I think it was a call because he was banking on me passing anything bar AA and KK due to the performance over the chip count.........


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Dewi_cool on January 20, 2006, 01:34:15 PM
and..................??


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 01:35:13 PM
tell me about it... :pop:


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: yt on January 20, 2006, 01:38:37 PM
Its a  ;yellowcard; at least.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 01:38:57 PM
just as I was about to make a decison to pass he says to me

"hurry up and pass, I know you have  Jh Js and that can't be good can it"


earlier on in the night he reraises a continuation bet on a flop of


 5h 7d 9d

and says to the punter

"pass, I know you have  Jh Js, I beat that"

the guy calls for all his chips with  Ad Qs, trumper turns over  Jh Js...

I went back to thinking....


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 01:42:32 PM
Such a tease

Redcard him at will guys


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 01:44:58 PM
so, after the speechplay guys, pass or call?

answer at 1.58pm


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 01:46:02 PM
:redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard: :redcard:

My finger got stuck!


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 01:47:13 PM
i'm thinking about putting a poll up, that should cheer you up


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: riverdave on January 20, 2006, 01:51:23 PM
Well when i first read the scenario i think Trumper is going to show you aces or kings but on mulling it over i think he could make this play with ak and hoping to get the extra equity in the pot by making you fold i can pass QQ to most players and certainly would if i thought i was behind, but i'm not 100% certain you are here.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Dewi_cool on January 20, 2006, 01:53:43 PM
If you want to saty in  you gotta be mad to call, he's got  Ahrt Aspades


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: paddyjim on January 20, 2006, 01:54:31 PM
So he wants you to think he has  Jh Jd again when in fact he has  Ac Ahrt


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: mikkyT on January 20, 2006, 01:54:37 PM
I thought two big unpaired cards before... and now that you have added additional infomation, I still feel the same. Definately doesn't feel like aces or kings. He wants it heads up against the boy whose about to go out and he wants you to fold.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Nem on January 20, 2006, 02:03:44 PM
It's 14:02 by my watch Tightend!!! ::) ::) ::)


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: jezza777 on January 20, 2006, 02:04:28 PM
come on I know your watching!


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Bongo on January 20, 2006, 02:05:22 PM
Maybe he's just nipped back to the casino to make his decision and find out the result.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: TightEnd on January 20, 2006, 02:05:37 PM
I passed, thinking that as I had seen Simon's earlier performance he hads to be beating Jacks this time

In fact Mikky T is correct....by giving me the speech play Simon changed my mind...I was convinced it was a squeeze play to get me to fold and to get him HU with the short stack who he thought he was beating

then he gave me the "you have to pass jacks" routine and I talked myself out of it. 30 minutes earlier I witnessed the previous speechplay and I thought he knew I would not fall for the same trick so it had to be a double bluff

I passed

Idiot

The short stack had

 Ac Kh

Simon had

 Ad  Qd

I was ahead, or would have been

we both got the short stack wrong

When an Ace fell on the turn I was extremely relieved, but I still made the wrong play


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: mikkyT on January 20, 2006, 02:07:54 PM
 :dd:

All is well that ends well... And its easier for us to sit and make these informed decisions (well some of us :D) based on the information you are feeding us, but when you're up against it in the heat of the event its a totally different feeling.


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: yt on January 20, 2006, 02:08:49 PM
You gotta love his speech play


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: mystery721 on January 20, 2006, 02:52:20 PM
i dont know simon trumper, im just going on the fact i play tourneys with world class poker players and for me its a fold


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: SupaMonkey on January 20, 2006, 02:58:51 PM
i dont know simon trumper, im just going on the fact i play tourneys with world class poker players and for me its a fold

Well that's a relief, I play $5 mtt on Ub and its a fold for me too.  :D


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: NoflopsHomer on January 20, 2006, 03:02:32 PM
In the blonde bash Simon moved all-in after a flat caller and a raise all-in with J10! The other all-in had A5, and the flat caller had AJ and passed. 10 and a 5 on the flop though. That Simon is a sneaky one...


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: Graham C on January 20, 2006, 03:13:40 PM
i dont know simon trumper, im just going on the fact i play tourneys with world class poker players and for me its a fold

Well that's a relief, I play $5 mtt on Ub and its a fold for me too.  :D

LOL :D Thats exactly what I was thinking :D


Title: Re: A festival decision for all your chips
Post by: booder on January 20, 2006, 03:59:56 PM
i dont know simon trumper, im just going on the fact i play tourneys with world class poker players and for me its a fold

does this mean you do not consider simon to be a world class player ?