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Poker Forums => The Rail => Topic started by: Sunday8pm on June 20, 2005, 09:02:47 PM



Title: Bad Beats
Post by: Sunday8pm on June 20, 2005, 09:02:47 PM
guys,

i thought id post a new topic, as we speak i have just lost my entire poker bankroll in a 30 minute routine session of limit poker which has just made me reconsider my pokering future, and also has made me slightly more sceptical about the way poker sites work.

5 hands out of 6 i got the following hands (the hands me broke me!)

1st hand KK flop Q63 rainbow, busted by AQ with a Q river

2nd hand AJ flop 3AJ, another player has 33

3rd hand TT flop Txx, river K, busted by KK

4th hand AA flop 734 all diamonds (im carrying Ace diamonds), busted by 77 with no diamond on turn or river.

5th hand KK busted by an ace turn ( someone had no right to call the flop i think he had A5 with no straight or flush draws on the flop.

I am young and maybe its my youthful inexperience thats made me be so naive about thinking online poker is fixed, but its hard to take a run of beats like that on the chin because they cost me. I was playing 5/10 limit. i think altoghether the pots cost me over 600. I am usually a consistent player and take home average 1k a month, but recently things have dried up a lot and i seem to get outdrawn a lot, maybe i should go to no limit? Any advice guys?

Before my next deposit i am going to have to think twice because i read an article (whether its true or not remains to be seen) where crypto was described as 'rife with corruption'

http://www.cryptologicsucks.com/managearticle.asp?c=10&a=129

i would appreciate any advice, sorry if it sounds so negative, i guess im using the forum to vent my frustration!

Ben


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Ironside on June 20, 2005, 09:04:17 PM
if you lost all your bankroll in 30 minutes your playing at the wrong level for your bankroll


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Ironside on June 20, 2005, 09:19:51 PM
i have over $4k in an online bankroll and wont go near a limit table bigger 50c/$1
and try to play PLO or NLHE at 10/25cent level sometimes 25/50cent if there is no action
lower


untill i get it to 10-20k i wont even think of playing much higher


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 20, 2005, 10:10:11 PM
That's tough Sunday, but these runs happen, live & online, in our favour & against us. We have all had nights (not enough I regret) where the deck hits us in the face, but some nights it goes the other way.

I have consistently argued on blonde, and elsewhere, that there is NO REASON WHATSOEVER for online sites to "fix" the cards. It does not earn them any more money, so why should they do it? Think MOTIVE. What IS their motive?

Which is a prelude to defending Cryptologic, & I needed to make that point before someone says "ahh, but you would say that, Crypto have just given you 500". Well they did not give it to us, they gave us nothing, they gave it to the blondeites. And we have no commercial relationship with Crypto whatsoever. We have relationships with members of the Crypto network, but I don't think that prevents me from defending Crypto.

So that frees me up to say I find the site you named to be grossly offensive, & bang out of order. Crypto is a network of sites which includes some major, & respectable organisations, & it's just out of order and plain wrong to suggest they are corrupt or fixed. I hope when you have calmed down a bit Sunday, you will realise you have been a little unfair on them.

Of COURSE we sympathise with you, some of them were real ugly beats, but that's poker, it does happen. I hope you feel less sore in the morning & will reconsider your decision to post that link.

blonde is actually a "no Bad Beat" zone, but in this case, I understand your frustration, and boy oh boy, I feel for you, 600 in one session is seriously painful. I hope you feel better about it in the morning fella, & that the deck hits you in the face the next time you play, wherever, & on whatever site, it may be.

Sleep well buddy, tomorrow is another day. And believe me, far worse things happen off the table.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 20, 2005, 10:47:12 PM
You did NOT cause me offence Sunday, but I'd have preferred you did not post that link, that's all.

As you admit, you've had a bad night, & needed to get the frustration out of your system, well you have done it now, & we will look after you, you are family now.

And NO, you were not necessarily "lucky, and not a good player after all". Poker players experience violent swings in both directions, be they amateurs or big names, they all suffer it at some time.

You have very sensibly & maturely said you will sleep on it, I am sure you will have got it out of your system by the morning.

So no offence was caused to me (though you wont get a Crimble Card from Crrypto....!), and if you feel a little better about it now - such as you can after bombing 600 - well it's served it's purpose.

See you Thursday in the Crypto Blonde Tourney I hope. Now, if tikay wins that you may have a case.......



Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Bongo on June 20, 2005, 10:49:14 PM
I always find it a good idea to avoid any serious stakes after such a loss until i'm completely over the loss and my focus has returned - however long that takes.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: jbsc7769 on June 20, 2005, 10:50:08 PM
Whilst Blonde is a "Bad Beat Free" zone, we have all experienced them and certainly can all relate to them. It is one of the most frustrating things that happen in out game. That said, by the fact that you "take home average 1k a month" and have just lost 600, personally I do not think that yo uhave too much to worry about. The hands that you lost, you got your money in whilst you were in front and to be fair, that is your goal in poker. If yo udo that, you WILL be a winning player. Congratulations!
The hands you mention, there is really only the AA v 77 that I would say is really painful and to be honest, you were actually behind from the start in two of them! (see Below for approx percentages)

1st hand KK v AQ - 70%/30%
2nd hand AJ v 33 - 47%/53%
3rd hand TT v KK - 20%/80%
4th hand AA v 77 - 80%/20%
5th hand KK v A5 - 70%/30%

Let me say one thing that I think is key to this post. You mention that you just had a healthy withdrawal for a holiday. It is a proven fact that when you make a sizeable withdrawal, the way you play is affected. It is mathematically proven that anytime you lower your bankroll in a game that has variances, you increase the chances of going broke. In effect this is what Ironside was saying about your bankroll. There is a natural impulse to be concerned when you run a little low of funds and it leaves a situation where you leave yourself underfunded for your games. Others refer to this as the "Cashout Curse". Lee Jones wrote and excellent article on this in card player some time ago, I will see if I can dig out the link for you.

Let me address your other comments about online gaming.
I want to repeat what Tikay has already said, these sites make millions upon millions of pounds, why would they risk all of that by having a crooked game? One hint of any inpropriatry and they would lose evrey single customer overnight.
Why would they want you to lose with, for example AA v 77. Already we know that it will lose twice in ten hands (on average). I hear frequently that players think the sites have vendettas against them!!! WHY WOULD THEY???
What I am saying is, presented with the facts that you have written, why, for even one minute, would you doubt whether to play online. You have had a bad run. I can promise you that if you continue to play, you will have another. BUT, if you keep playing your game the way you have been doing, you will succeed. I would take most of those hands that you have stated above, you got your chips in when you were in front (I remember Tikay and Julian saying something along those lines to me...). . Well done to you and good luck if you contimue on the online route.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Scottish Dave on June 20, 2005, 10:51:33 PM
sure thanks for the advice tikay.

what i wrote was purely out of frustration, i also believe the site i named to be talking BS but thought at the time it was appropriate to add that link. obviously i realise that wasnt the right thing to do sorry for that.

I am young, not 20 for a long while yet and havent suffered such a bad run yet, of course i get lucky sometimes, but i rarely bad beat someone else. theres still that element in my mind that tells me something is wrong.....maybe its collusion.

i think i will have to sleep on it and reconsider in the morning, maybe i was lucky to win the money i have so far and im not a good poker player, who knows.

once again tikay sorry for any offence caused

sunday



you do know, if you regret posting the link, you can modify your post and take the link out.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Karabiner on June 20, 2005, 10:52:19 PM
Cue a "bad beat" section of the forum ?

 ;)


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: jbsc7769 on June 20, 2005, 10:54:16 PM
http://www.cardplayer.com/poker_magazine/archives/?a_id=13994&m_id=65535

That is the link that I mentioned about the "cashout curse", I hope you find it useful


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 20, 2005, 10:59:51 PM
I'd rather not Karabiner, unless it's by popular demand.

I take one part of jbsc's excellent post (yes, "excellent", and he's a buddy, so a bit of discount can be applied to my comments).

If youi consistently get your money in when you are ahead, then....

You ARE a good player.

You WILL make money in the long run.

It really is as simple as that.

Don't change your style or methods Sunday, you will be OK. As to the size of your bankroll, that's another matter on which I am less qualified to offer an opinion. Coping with Bad Beats is my speciality subject!


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 20, 2005, 11:06:30 PM
The one jbsc sent? Glad to hear that. You know, I keep my bad beats to myself, but there is a theory that these feelings are better if aired, they heal better. I kinda think this little thread has been of some help. I sure hope so.

And thanks to Dave for his subtle post, too.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Karabiner on June 20, 2005, 11:18:40 PM
Well I played two tourneys online tonight:

$20 rebuy on Laddies 14th, 10 got paid.

30 freezeout 15k gtd on Crypto 52nd, 50 got paid.

 ???

5 golf with Tom G , won 2and 1. I feel better already recalling that. You were missed Tikay.

 ;D


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Robert HM on June 20, 2005, 11:24:36 PM
What a great post from jsbc.
Looked at the blog as well Simon, you lucky lucky man.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: chrisbruce on June 20, 2005, 11:24:58 PM
Hi Sunday

I can relate directly to your online experiences and have all but given up online poker except for the occasional satalite tournament such as the WSOP on crypto on sunday. Whilst I agree with TKs argument at the amount of money online sites are making just by hosting games I feel in my own mind that the software is designed to draw you into more pots. To often I have heard similar stories from people who play online the classic ones being.

1. I tried XXXpoker.com and for a while I could do no wrong......then I started to lose
2. I withdrew some cash from my account and now I cant win
3. Online sites favour drawing hands ( a flush draw is 50%+ on line - imoa)
4. Certain players consistently hit cards at key times (although Ali bag of bollocks does this live at the gala week on week)

Ultimately those players who continue to make money on line will always defend online sites and players who have lost will no doubt say they are bent. My own experience involved winning an average of a grand a week for 2/3 months and then giving it back in 10 days with a series of horrible outdraws I wont bore you with. That was 6 months ago and I have been online twice for the wsop satalites since and that is it.

Remember online poker is the crack cocaine of poker...highly addictive and difficult to leave alone winning or losing.

There are many reasons why I like to play poker but the subtleties of a live game and the satisfaction when you spot a tell in someones game far outway any online experience


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Karabiner on June 20, 2005, 11:28:46 PM
"The crack cocaine" of poker !

An excellent allegory, why didn't I think of that ?


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: chrisbruce on June 20, 2005, 11:34:00 PM
One more thing

I have yet to meet anybody who admits to losing reguarly at online poker. In fact Im not sure if I have met anyone who admits to a loss overall in online poker.

strange?


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Karabiner on June 20, 2005, 11:36:25 PM
Well I'm a good loser on Pokerstars, cannot win there.

But other sites I have won consistently over the last two years.

So that's half an admission.

 ;)


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Robert HM on June 20, 2005, 11:38:39 PM
I'll admit to it, though I also say I am learning and the trend is in reverse


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: jonthomson on June 20, 2005, 11:47:48 PM
I have consistently argued on blonde, and elsewhere, that there is NO REASON WHATSOEVER for online sites to "fix" the cards. It does not earn them any more money, so why should they do it? Think MOTIVE. What IS their motive?

I dunno, I assume if the poker rooms can create more "action flops" they'll obviously create more action and hence more rake, but that would surely be a negligible amount pro rata, and if any fixing got out to the general public, the loss in custom would more than make up for any extra juice they'd take. I agree, there is no motive as long as they're thinking anything other than ultra short-term.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Karabiner on June 20, 2005, 11:53:03 PM
Seriously though Sunday in limit holdem you get more "bad beats" than any other game.

There are more players in for the flop, turn and river.

So if you run bad at it..........


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: snoopy1239 on June 20, 2005, 11:58:29 PM
Maybe the random card generator is unintentionally not random.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Bongo on June 21, 2005, 12:09:47 AM

3. Online sites favour drawing hands ( a flush draw is 50%+ on line - imoa)


Do/did you play more flush draws online then?


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 21, 2005, 12:20:02 AM
Sunday, of COURSE you can call me tomorrow about that other matter, tonight is a case closed jobbie. Evening would be best, please.

Chris - nice post. But think MOTIVE. Why would they wanna "fix" the software ro draw you into pots? I only play SNG's online as a rule, 'cos I cant make money in any other online format, the sites take a flat reg fee, & it don't matter if I go out first or last, quick or slow, they all get the same reg fee.

Now consider bad beats. By definition, for every bad beat there is the opposite, lets call it a suckout. So, for every curly lip, there's a happy bunny. Without exception, the numbers match EXACTLY. We can listen to folks regaling us with their bad beats all day & night, but there HAS to be - definitely positively, indisputibly - EXACTLY the same number of suckouts. It's a given!

It's how we perceive luck that is key. Consider my performance at The Gutshot the other week for a moment. I spent 7 hours plus before exiting, & the only playable pairs or decent hands I had were 99, AQ, & AK, which I had early on & won the blinds with. Was that lucky, or unlucky? Most would say unlucky, but I saw it different. If I survived to the Final, I did so by stealing, countless times before I eventually got caught. So I see that as LUCKY. If any of my oppos had had any sort of hand any of the times I stole, I would likely have been busted. So I must have been LUCKY. 2 pairs in 7 hours is lucky? Depends how you view it, see?

But you then go on to say that you prefer & why, live poker. So do I, as it happens, but that's an entirely different argument. But let's not forget those to whom online poker is a godsend. The disabled, the guys that cant get a pass from their missus, or cant afford "live" stakes - remember, you can play for micro stakes online. I know a top tourney pro whose wife is gravely ill, he cant get out any more, but for a few hours each day he has a release from his 24/7 care of his wife, and he can play a bit of poker & keep an eye on her at the same time. So maybe I over defend online integrity, but we need to remember that it's all that some folks have, & to suggest it is bent serves no useful purpose.

Sunday - no, NOBODY is getting annoyed, it's been a good debate, & you can always rely on a few blondeites to put the different arguments in perspective.

Karabiner makes a good point too, his advice is worth taking on board, he's played the game for 123 years.

We have had a good debate, so don't be doing the hangdog bit, it's been fun, & we've exercised a few demons.


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Jimmy B on June 21, 2005, 12:34:00 AM
Well I'm a good loser on Pokerstars, cannot win there.

To continue the spirit, until recently I'd lost on every site I've used apart from Betfair!

I think everyone has these doubts about online sites early on. I've only been playing a year myself - played a bit, lost a bit, learnt a bit, won a bit more, lost a bit, couldn't understand it, sulked, lost a lot more. It went in patterns like this and at some point or other I decided "no way - its all rigged". So I figured I'd better try another site. Eventually I spotted the pattern - I'd be playing badly because of a few bad beats and so lose more than I should have. Then I'd go open a new account on another site and, still playing badly, funnily enough lose even more!

I've now got back into profit on Bet365 playing Rounders. Just hit my worst run on it so far having lost 5 Level 3's in a row (4th was verging on sulky, 5th I played terrible after going on tilt early on because I missed a flush draw!!! but did get a bit unlucky too at the end).

So I'm off my game and not getting any luck either and I'm cursing coz I've just lost enough to enter a Final straight out. Was about to give up for the night and then I read some of the responses to this thread. So I cleared my head and jumped back in determined to play a decent game. I think when you're off your game a bit the best way forward is to go into a game with a plan and stick to it - I decided to fold everything preflop unless I thought I was ahead - leave the clever plays for when I'm in the right frame of mind to escape from them when it goes wrong. Well, I stuck to the plan - I've played far better poker - but I sit there fold, fold, fold, fold, isn't this fun, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold, fold. Sticking to the plan I actually only got three playable preflop hands, 99 - won the blinds, 66 - doubled up defending a blind steal, AQs - um, tied with AK.

One of the other winners at the end of the game says "Bet you enjoyed that <Jimmy>!" and I'm like "YYYEEEAHHHH MAN! Was beginning to think I'd never win one again!". Moral of the story - ending a bad run can feel as good as your best ever winning streak...


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 21, 2005, 12:38:59 AM
GREAT post Jimmy, especially the final para.

Sunday - "leg-end"? I hope you aint referring to my shorts. Then I would tilt up......Shorts, jacket, Age - and you aint seen NOTHING yet. More fashion shocks in store from the 'ol fella, I promise..


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: snoopy1239 on June 21, 2005, 12:56:33 AM
People don't realise how important tilting is in online poker.

If you're a solid player who can master the art of not tilting, then you've got a fighting chance.  8)

I'm a solid disciplined player and I'd always associated titling with losing a pot and then throwing away the rest of your chips in anger or frusration. But it's so much more than that.

Nowadays, not tilting to me means a whole heap of things. Conquering these will improve your game ten fold. Soemtimes you can tilt (chase, force, play to quickly, etc) without even realsiing.



Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: londonpokergirl on June 21, 2005, 01:48:24 AM
Yeah I don't tilt either, I might spit me dummy out and utter a few obscenities :)  but i've found that if you
have a hand where you are absolutely miles infront and somebody hits runner runner then
you are better going to make a cuppa tea and sit out for 5 mins than play after that hand

It makes you a better poker player , and also u don't do your stack!!


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: tikay on June 21, 2005, 01:50:26 AM

Hi Mmel,

How's your little, err umm, how's Declan?


Title: Re: Bad Beats
Post by: Jimmy B on June 21, 2005, 02:08:59 AM
Cheers tikay :)

And yeah Snoopy thats true. The worst form of tilt is the "throw" it all away in anger. I'd like to say I'll never do that again but I guess thats optimistic, though the more I play, the more I enjoy the game and understand the ebbs and flows, the less it happens. My two main tilts these days are (i) slow-burning tilts where I'm off my game as I've lost a bit of confidence after a bad run - normally this ends up with me playing a little looser and fishier than normal, and also letting people outdraw me, (ii) a complete inability to play after a big win.

The first I'm getting better at noticing and rectifying, if it gets bad I go to my over-tight B game above - not optimal but in most games its probably break-even and its always going to bring me a win sooner or later.

The second I don't fully get yet - somewhat less experience of that! But I'm going to have to learn how to deal with it after I win the WSOP next year ;D