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Poker Forums => The Rail => Topic started by: blueace on April 10, 2013, 04:46:04 PM



Title: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: blueace on April 10, 2013, 04:46:04 PM
Ive been noticing recently a lot of stake threads are not getting staked at all or not making their percentages. Used to be that it was like an early morning bakery over there. Are people fed up with punting? Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: Amatay on April 10, 2013, 04:55:13 PM
everyone is under it


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: millidonk on April 10, 2013, 05:12:16 PM
everyone is under it


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: Woodsey on April 10, 2013, 05:13:00 PM
I used to like a punt, but I won't pay premiums out of principle now, I don't think I've ever had a single return from all the stakes I've bought from memory, certainly nothing significant anything.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: EvilPie on April 10, 2013, 05:15:04 PM
Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......

I'm planning on putting up a staking thread in the next few days that will rip this statement to shreds.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: brookie on April 10, 2013, 05:23:51 PM
I am also putting one up again soon  3 time off trying lol


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: Magic817 on April 10, 2013, 05:26:15 PM
In my opinion it is a mix of people being under it and players selling at inflated mark ups (none of this is aimed at anyone in particular). It seems players without much of a track record say so in their OP and then say and this is why I am selling at 1.2 when they should be asking for 1.0 (and some of them being pleased if they get 1.0). For a while staking threads were getting sold out so quickly that everyone jumped on board and bought asap without actually thinking about whether it was a decent price. A lot of it boils down to players not reducing their expected ROI (in their opinion) for risk/variance factors. For an investment to be a reasonable one there should be a difference between the mark up and expected return. I can understand why players do it as they want to get the maximum possible but they shouldn't be surprised if they do not sell out. Some packages that haven't sold have just been down to poor OP's.

Having said all that I do think there are some good staking packages offered out there. But what do I know, might just boil down to everyone being under it!

 



Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: blueace on April 10, 2013, 05:26:57 PM
Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......

I'm planning on putting up a staking thread in the next few days that will rip this statement to shreds.


Love it; rest...


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: aaron1867 on April 10, 2013, 06:13:08 PM
I only invest now and again and I use Theo from Dragon Den theory, invest in the person, then look at the proposal and always go by this.

But to put it blunty, lots of people on here are selling at silly mark ups, whilst some stakes are also generally expensive in general too.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: toddswain on April 10, 2013, 07:28:56 PM


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: StuartHopkin on April 10, 2013, 08:02:34 PM
Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......

I'm planning on putting up a staking thread in the next few days that will rip this statement to shreds.


Love it; rest...

More to the point will I have time to put a Corona based charity raffle based staking thread up!!


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - what happening
Post by: SuuPRlim on April 11, 2013, 10:57:30 AM

yup. no1 has annnnnnnnnnny money, so more people are selling and less people are buying.

I'm no economist but ....


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: Simon Galloway on April 11, 2013, 12:07:09 PM
Maybe the purple patch is over...

There are two levels of staking taking place simultaneously which clouds the issue to some extent.  And I'm going to try and go through this without naming names or giving actual examples just to keep this from being personal.

There are the group of forumites that think they are staking when in fact they are simply punting.  They are probably getting the worst of it when paying high markups, but paying 1.6 for someone (without dissecting their ability, the event, actual tax, "clown's tax" (i.e. a discount to factor in the likelihood the stakee does something stupid) but if they are taking 5% as a punt, I doubt it is any worse than walking into a bookies and betting 20 quid a race for an afternoon.  And obv I'm not breaking out the EV calcs to prove it.  Generally, where high markups have been paid, most of it is taken by guys taking small punts, backing mates, etc (even if they don't think they are) and the group of backers that do it somewhat fulltime are usually nowhere to be seen.  But I would never try and talk someone out of having a $100 crack at winning $5k+ regardless of whether it is a good spot or not.  Everyone likes to have action, to some degree, a chance of a nice sweat and a half-decent cop.

The backers that silently miss the auction/staking thread represent the other group.  Heavy duty or even full-time backers. They will take on spots where they believe to be +EV with acceptable variance to them and that is pretty much that.  Within that group, you will still see enough divergence of opinion to have disagreements and variance in price evaluations.

So the argument that "the market dictates" the right price doesn't completely hold true for me.  What is happening often in these threads is that there are enough punters to pretty much sell out most threads at most prices, within reason (and often beyond reason, imo)  It doesn't mean that we have arrived at a perfect price equilibrium, just that those seeking stakes are definitely getting the best of it at the moment due to the glut of punters that just want to get on.  A couple of binks will elongate the lifetime of this purple patch for stakees, but eventually, people will get bored of paying 1.6 on a regular basis.  That might take quite a long time to come about.




Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: SuuPRlim on April 11, 2013, 01:21:42 PM
SImon Galloway in "knowing" shocker.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: mondatoo on April 11, 2013, 01:25:41 PM
<3 Clown tax.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: mulhuzz on April 11, 2013, 03:21:39 PM
<3 Clown tax.


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: tikay on April 12, 2013, 10:48:59 AM
Ive been noticing recently a lot of stake threads are not getting staked at all or not making their percentages. Used to be that it was like an early morning bakery over there. Are people fed up with punting? Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......

Morning Mr Blue.

4 replies were basically "people are under it", & that may or may not be true, but I don't believe that is the answer at all.  

I actually think you asked a question which was, inadvertently I'm sure, misleading, & people responded accordingly. You suggested this....

Ive been noticing recently a lot of stake threads are not getting staked at all or not making their percentages

It was a sort of leading question, but lets look at some facts.

We have two Staking Boards, being "Online" & "Live".

In "Online", as far as I can see, the last TEN Staking Threads all sold out. They came from a mix of players, from "top" Online guys like Rick Trigg & Dan Carter, (over $6,000 requested by those two & snapped up quickly) down to regular & small-ball guys. They were all, however you may phrase it, sensibly priced, & were all from regular blondes, who Post right across the Forum. The last point is key - blondes like to stake regular blondes, but are slightly sussy of relative newbies, or those who don't much use the Forum for regular stuff.

In "Live", of the last ten Staking Threads, EIGHT sold out very quickly. Again, a broad range of players, from "top" lads like Alex, Thewy & Plenners, then through all levels down to fairly "small" players, & all sensibly priced.

The other two are worth looking at, to see why.

One of the two was from Alex, who, on the first occasion, perhaps pitched it a bit high. Once he adjusted his sights, it sold out quickly.

The other was from "hotdog", & got no responses at all. Those who use that Staking Board regularly could have predicted exactly that. I & we don't have any problem with hotdog, not at all, but it has to be said, it was never likely to sell, for a variety of reasons. The OP was not the best, & hotdog only uses the Forum in a very limited way, & is not known  - yet - by many here. I actually know him from 5 or 6 years back, as a young Walsall regular, & he is a fine young man, with no shortage of self-confidence & belief in his ability. But hardly anyone here knows him, & he has not put himself about across the wider community. If he addressed those areas, I'm pretty sure he'd be able to sell.

People like to stake top players, at decent prices, but mostly, we like to stake peeps we know, who are mates, or "known" blondes.

I've mentioned, I thnk, 20 threads across the two Boards, of which 18 sold out quickly, so a 90% success rate, & there were good reasons why the other two did not sell, one was subsequently amended & sold out quickly.

So, my take is that the original question was (unintentionally) flawed, it was a sort of erroneous leading question, & from that, several lads walked into the trap & said "folks are under it".

Many people ARE under it, but a 90% success rate, over an admittedly small sample size (20), does not suggest to me that requested stakes are not getting sold.

Delve through the Staking Boards over a longer period to get a better sample size, & I'd be very surprised if the "SOLD OUT" % ever dipped below 90.

I DO think the OP's are, generally, much better these days than, say, 12 or 18 months ago, as we've had some "Staking Police" which has helped matters.  


Title: Re: Poker Staking thread - whats happening
Post by: blueace on April 13, 2013, 01:15:52 PM
Ive been noticing recently a lot of stake threads are not getting staked at all or not making their percentages. Used to be that it was like an early morning bakery over there. Are people fed up with punting? Is it bad value overall, with only the fairest prices and the best names get staked?......

Morning Mr Blue.

4 replies were basically "people are under it", & that may or may not be true, but I don't believe that is the answer at all.  

I actually think you asked a question which was, inadvertently I'm sure, misleading, & people responded accordingly. You suggested this....

Ive been noticing recently a lot of stake threads are not getting staked at all or not making their percentages

It was a sort of leading question, but lets look at some facts.

We have two Staking Boards, being "Online" & "Live".

In "Online", as far as I can see, the last TEN Staking Threads all sold out. They came from a mix of players, from "top" Online guys like Rick Trigg & Dan Carter, (over $6,000 requested by those two & snapped up quickly) down to regular & small-ball guys. They were all, however you may phrase it, sensibly priced, & were all from regular blondes, who Post right across the Forum. The last point is key - blondes like to stake regular blondes, but are slightly sussy of relative newbies, or those who don't much use the Forum for regular stuff.

In "Live", of the last ten Staking Threads, EIGHT sold out very quickly. Again, a broad range of players, from "top" lads like Alex, Thewy & Plenners, then through all levels down to fairly "small" players, & all sensibly priced.

The other two are worth looking at, to see why.

One of the two was from Alex, who, on the first occasion, perhaps pitched it a bit high. Once he adjusted his sights, it sold out quickly.

The other was from "hotdog", & got no responses at all. Those who use that Staking Board regularly could have predicted exactly that. I & we don't have any problem with hotdog, not at all, but it has to be said, it was never likely to sell, for a variety of reasons. The OP was not the best, & hotdog only uses the Forum in a very limited way, & is not known  - yet - by many here. I actually know him from 5 or 6 years back, as a young Walsall regular, & he is a fine young man, with no shortage of self-confidence & belief in his ability. But hardly anyone here knows him, & he has not put himself about across the wider community. If he addressed those areas, I'm pretty sure he'd be able to sell.

People like to stake top players, at decent prices, but mostly, we like to stake peeps we know, who are mates, or "known" blondes.

I've mentioned, I thnk, 20 threads across the two Boards, of which 18 sold out quickly, so a 90% success rate, & there were good reasons why the other two did not sell, one was subsequently amended & sold out quickly.

So, my take is that the original question was (unintentionally) flawed, it was a sort of erroneous leading question, & from that, several lads walked into the trap & said "folks are under it".

Many people ARE under it, but a 90% success rate, over an admittedly small sample size (20), does not suggest to me that requested stakes are not getting sold.

Delve through the Staking Boards over a longer period to get a better sample size, & I'd be very surprised if the "SOLD OUT" % ever dipped below 90.

I DO think the OP's are, generally, much better these days than, say, 12 or 18 months ago, as we've had some "Staking Police" which has helped matters.  
Thanks for taking the time to examine the point made.. As a community I think prices should remain fair and reflect that it's a community. I would feel uneasy squeezing the maximum out of people prepared to invest/punt in me. Similairly one would expect blondes to back those that are a significant part of that community. My original point wasn't just in reference to the most recent posts you refer to but a general slowing down I felt I had noticed on there. Clearly some posters feel they have noticed it too?