blonde poker forum

Hey guys what do you think of this line?

I open atcc utg to 500 and get called by villain 1 (most enormous whale who is flatting ridiculous wide) villain 2 (skandi) and then 3 others.

Flop is As Ks 2c

I cbetb 1300 just the competent skandi calls

Turn is the 2h and I bet 2800 with the intention of over betting river to get his capped range to fold out chops

River is a queen and I decide to now check (probably except jack one of only cards I check)

H bets 5600 and I put him all in for 16200 more. I cover.

My thoughts are he is totally capped at aq and I can legit play aa/kk/jt/5x/ak like this as he never really has better than aq as he squeezes the whale close to 100%

We don't have much history, I 3bet and he folded and he has been here around 1.5x orbits
What so you think?

8/10.

Yeah i like this line, would be annoyed if it didnt get through!

7/10.

Would be higher with some history, unless competent villain is imfromsweden in which case 9/10 because of assumed history etc.

Like the line a lot but depends quite a bit on him knowing that you know he's competent, etc. if he thinks you could be bad but not super bad he just goes 'call'.

If he thinks I'm bad then he likely would decrease his calling frequency otr

Like but I feel you probs bluffed with best hand.

Prolly means he doesn't have a bet/fold range. (At that size)

That's another thing if he's trying to bluff me off a chop a non zero percent of the time. And times he has a fd we induce 5600

Why? That makes no sense? The worse he thinks someone is the less he is going to b/call.

Because he doesn't also bluff often?

i was at the table and thought it was a great bluff in theory, but the thing is, in these situations (ok its not QUITE the same here because he was at the top of his range) if he calls you with the exact hand or type of hand you are trying to make him fold, then it's a bad bluff - because you've incorrectly assessed what level he's thinking on, and incorrectly assessed what he is going to do with AQ here.

I think maybe we need more reads on this guy first and let him show us that he is on the level we think he is on, rather than just stereotype him based on his reggy open sizes and the fact that he folded to a 3bet in 1.5 orbits.

this bluff is similar to my bluff vs tom ambler that i wrote about in my diary - sounds fine in theory, but since he called quickly with the hand im trying to make him fold - ive incorrectly judged what level he's on - therefore made a bad bluff.

When you break it down i think his betting on the river range is 22/AQ and maybe some missed spades. I think its v optimistic to think he bets hands like AT/AJ to bluff you off a chop in an mtt where your range looks really strong. I also since hes scandi think he 3 bets AQ with the fish in the pot some  % of the time. I'd like your line/thinking more if it was a HU pot and the Q didnt hit the river :O

As played i suspect he will never in a month of sundays fold AQ.

calling>raising for me in this specific spot, real close between calling and folding and would probably need more of a read.

sorry realised i kinda spoiled the thread with my post there...wasnt thinking

I agree with what your saying Alex, however your basing this on live reads rather than math.  Fair play to you that you have great live reads, easy to tell from your hands posted previously in ur diary.  Without them reads this is a great bluff in theory tho right?

In theory yes because he "can't call with the top of his range" but it's all player dependant. Using a John Black line "if i thought you were any good I'd jam river". - Does hold a lot of weight.

It doesn't matter if you can see through his cards and see he has K5, if he's not prepared to fold the hand the bluff is terrible. No matter how 'terrible' or how much of a losing play his call is in this instance.


Agree with Alex completely, you can't expect other players to do what you do or what the correct play is, so you have to adapt your play and 'come down to their level' or whatever you want to call it.

Ouch, meow lol. Alex, I think your bluff vs me was possibly a little optimistic given that in order to make my call profitable I had to be like 1 in 3 times, especially when factoring in you could possibly be jamming worse hands for thin value / turning a lot of hands into bluffs. I don't think it's a question of what level each of us were on rather than basic maths dictating a fold on my part would be pretty bad (particularly when you rep so thin on the river - flushes and 89). Theoretically however, i think it's fantastic, and I'm going to struggle to call when not getting a ridiculous price - but by betting so much on the river I'd essentially 'priced myself into calling' (Im probably just a whale). (+ factor in I have obviously given you credit for being sicko enough to do something funky).

On the other hand I think this bluff should work alot vs a thinking player. Pretty unlikely pads is FOS with line he's taken.. Betting flop into 5, betting this turn, then check/jamming river. Opponent has literally 0 combos of houses (in theory) / 1 quads and loads of AQ/Ax (if he's not that great) and maybe spades whereas we have literally all combos of houses / AK.

8/10 as would prefer history.

i dont rate this bluff. you should have just deuces here really for any kind of merit! not atcc

This bit bothered me upon first reading (assuming we are playing live in Marbella)
So you have him capped at AQ... in a live game vs a player who is basically a random (1.5 orbits) I don't really like trying to make people fold top pair without some reasonable history, let alone AQ on AK22Q. I like the idea of the bluff, just not playing live with barely any history. People don't fold nearly enough.

I don't think villain bets Ax that often on river because i don't know what he expects to get value off and i don't think he can expect you to fold Ax.  Im not sure about how often he bets missed spades here either.  I think you can get the villain to fold JTss on the river but not A2 or 22.  I think he's going to squeeze AQ pre a large % of the time but when he doesn't squeeze pre i think he will almost always bet river and have a tough decision when cr'd esp if he's blocking A2dd.  I think he can argue that you could be turning missed spades into a bluff (which he blocks a lot of when he has JTss) and also that you would sometimes just bet your value hands since he will often have Ax that will call a bet but not bet himself.  I also don't think you can rep AK because it would be too thin early in a tourney to cr river.  I think you can only have JT that contains a spade to be cbetting 6 way and also some of these combos you'd fold pre when opening utg pre ante.  I think the only 2x you can have is A2dd.

you need villain to be folding over half the hands he bets on the river I think its close so ill give you 5/10 plus a bonus star for when it gets thru and the rest of the table are too scared to vbet a river versus you all day.

great post middy.

I agree that OTR you would have to valuebet better than AQ a high % of  the time, given that the majority of his range is Ax and missed spades which will often contain a queen a be v content to chk/back. very small amount of this range will bluff or vbet imo which defo detracts credibility from a c/r river value line spesh he gives you credit for a bit of competence. like middy says aswell if he hhappens to hold the  Ad then it'll sway him moreso into calling, and ofc lets not discount the possibility he has A2/K2s/22 himself whichis unlikely but not totally impossible.

that being all said I think its a sharky idea but i think you just about have enough equity to call here.

Hi mate thanks for the post.

I think if river if a blank its not really close and c/r is bad. I think only option is to overbet the river as we are uncapped and he has to fold a lot and checks back chops most of the time.

Why do you think he won't fold aq?

We aren't barreling turn as a bluff EVER our range is super strong and we have hardly any bluffs that play like this and legitimately a lot of value hands.


@middy

I know this sounds super lol but I was pretty certain he had aq on the river by the way everything was.

@londonray

I was at the time pretty confident he was a pretty reggy skandi he knew the masseuse well "ohhhhhh hiiiiiiii" kiss kiss and had good sizings and was with a group of 5 other skandis who were all young and handling themselves like regs. I would never do this vs random Spanish punters.

I also have a lot of value combos I'd play the same
A5hh
A5cc
A5dd
55
AA
AA
KK
KK
JT
65s
JTss

If I just c/shove the at/aj combos then its even relatively balanced in a scenario which is usually exploitive giving his perceived capped range.

Hi mate thanks for the post.

I think if river if a blank its not really close and c/r is bad. I think only option is to overbet the river as we are uncapped and he has to fold a lot and checks back chops most of the time.

Why do you think he won't fold aq?

We aren't barreling turn as a bluff EVER our range is super strong and we have hardly any bluffs that play like this and legitimately a lot of value hands.


@middy

I know this sounds super lol but I was pretty certain he had aq on the river by the way everything was.

@londonray

I was at the time pretty confident he was a pretty reggy skandi he knew the masseuse well "ohhhhhh hiiiiiiii" kiss kiss and had good sizings and was with a group of 5 other skandis who were all young and handling themselves like regs. I would never do this vs random Spanish punters.

I also have a lot of value combos I'd play the same
A5hh
A5cc
A5dd
55
AA
AA
KK
KK
JT
65s
JTss

If I just c/shove the at/aj combos then its even relatively balanced in a scenario which is usually exploitive giving his perceived capped range.

i'm confused, when you say 5x you mean 2x right?

You'd just V-bet the river more often than c/r given his range most of the time wouldn't you? I know for sure I'd expect you (if I didn't know who YOU were lol) to do so. Quite a chunk of his range is just trying to catch bluffs, the only times he'll bluff is when he has abso no hand and it's quite difficult for him not to have picked up something to showdown on the Q river. Can't imagine him worrying too much about polarising his river v-bets at this stage of a spanish tournament, regardless of how much credit he gives you for watching.

Blank was a 5 actually which is better for my range than his as I'm uncapped and he folds 5x otf whilst I have maybe 4/5 combos.

No dave because I think he has aq a lot. I wish I hadn't said he could be folding out a chop its not a big thing I just said a non zero % of the time.

I'd def c/r my value range otr

BUT, we're thinking he'll fold AQ some of the time, and obviously he has the odd Ax he's trying to bluff of a chop and the odd airball spade spade combo he's somehow made it here with etc - he'll always call AQ (but wont always call a c/r - in fact we expect him to fold moreso than calling becuase we made this play) and it's extremely unlikely he'll call a random Ax off for a c/r, and there is every chance he'll call a river bet with QsTs type hand and an Ax pretty often...

So surely just a big bet is better in a vacuum. This is what I'd be thinking as your oppo anyways.

I would be more inclined tomthinknwhat bluff combos we could have. We raise tug. Cbet into 5 people, barrel turn on a card we can expect him to never fold and then c/r.

Btw sometimes when you do a bluff you get really committed to it and stand by it no matter what so sorry if I am sounding defensive here, I poted it for discussion and I'm def listening I promise :D most of the things that people are concerned about I obviously considered when making the play rather than just seeing green lights saying go go go.

Hey mate, reread my post- sounds sooo douchey lol! really didn't mean it to come out like that. what a twat lol.

I wrote a long post in my diary about that bluff, here's a link if you're interested

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=51305.msg1751235#msg1751235

btw, not really sure why it's an "optimistic bluff given you have to be right 1 in 3". This is true of any river bluff where you pot the river lol. You have to overbet the pot on the river for it to be worse than 2:1 so don't really understand that line. E.g. Pad's bluff here his opponent has to call 16k more to win like 40k so is getting 2.5-1 so only needs to be right 28% of the time.

also the chances of me value jamming a worse hand over your river overbet is 0.

Yeh lolpotodds :p

I've never been one to worry about these pot odds, they're for people who can't play pre-flop.

Wise

Like the idea, but seems unnecessary vs opponent at this stage in this type of tournament.

Online mantra recently is never fold to Scandi's or Brazilians the amount of callers pre would have
slowed me down. More history between players needed though Pleno you sicko. 8/10

Sorry for being defensive but the fact that there was so many callers per AND we bet flop should make us speed up not slow down

I agree with this.

It's a spirited and inspired effort mate, I like everything apart from my concerns of the perceived legitimacy of your river value c/r rang. You've not really done anything to convince me away from my initial thoughts on that but then i dont think I've done much to convince you either lol so i guess we'll agree to differ on this one particular thing :)up

Goes without saying the actual theoretical logic is excellent, but then we'd expect no less would we :P

8/10. Admire the play the comment was not a critique in anyway. Nits are going to nit.