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Monte Carlo Day 2, both myself and villian (Pleno1) have been having a pretty tough time of it start of day 2 and he has just lost a pretty big pot where he tried to bruff a guy.

Pads 45k @ 8/1600/200 I just cover got like 50k

Pads opens button to 3200 i peel  7c 9c from the bb seems pretty standard.

 Ad 7d 8c i check/call 2900

Turn  6c I check planning to c/jam to my surprise Pads jams for 38k into ~14k

Hero?

What range do we assign Pads? I'm trying to stove the hand but I'm not exactly sure of his entire range in this spot

3b or fold pre

peeling is by far the best/standard play

playing 28bb with an oversized ante I disagree

you have a semi nutted hand and no idea how to play it oop vs a competant villain post flop

rofl

Agree anything but flatting pre would be bad, not that it doesn't play ok in a 3bet pot jut calling is far superior.

But guess Tom doesn't want advice on pre flop.

you are gona just 4b rip so wide over my 3b here and with a hand like 97s it just seems stupid, we have no blockers and it plays great post

we disagree.  oop vs a totally undefined range and a competant player with 26bbs (effective) back you are losing this pot more than winning it

I was confirming that I agreed with flatting btw. I don't think it's v close, just in case you misunderstood.



@guy winning more than losing doesn't matter so much #wegotaprice is 1600 to win 200x9 + 1600 + 800 + 3200 =7600 we don't een need to win close to 50% of the time for this to be close to a profitable peel.

Guess I just sigh fold here. I mean we're never in awful shape... and we're deffo ahead 25-40% of the time imo (obv thats a big spread, but wtf is his range).

Think I fold a pretty decent % pre here, never 3-bet, Pleno is someone i'd probably be less inclined to peel vs 28bb eff, 35 i'd be loving life and flicking in the call, but i'm sure it's still fine.

i think id call 97s and fold 64s.

pleno just always has *it* here.

peeling pre only option imo.

Ignoring Pleno's range for the time being... what is your range for getting to the turn?

If you think you're ahead 25-40% of the time, it's an absurdly easy call, isn't it?

I probs fold pre, but I call now.

I think my image was at the time, 1 big bluff, 4 3bets and a couple of steals in around 3.5 orbits but I may be wrong. It was definitely v ool.

38 to win 52, so you need to be 42% to call it off?  That makes it an easy fold.  Pleno should know he can have a lot of bluffs in his range with that overbet though.  I think I still fold, because whenever I start thinking like this and call they have exactly the nut straight.

A2-A7s 76s-7Ts 86s-8Js bunch of diamond combos 9T, 56s, KQ/KJ i might peel one off too

The problem with calling off here, is even taking an A holdings out of his range, most of his combos have us beat too

If he shows up with something daft we do beat like qjdd  we still gotta fade.

It's a fold now

I don't know pleno but it's quite an odd jam. Since you were playing with what do you really think his range of hands are? An overbet here just doesn't make much sense to me.

also, what do we think Toms calling range should be?

Ok... I will flopzillanalyse it later tonight when the kids are in bed and solve for exactly what combos you have to call with on the turn GTO-wise. When you get that answer you know 'where the line is' so to speak, and then you can adjust exploitatively from that line according to any reads you may have on Patrick. Best to know where the line is first though, before we try to adjust.

If it turns out that you have to defend xyz combos against his jam to prevent him jamming 100% of his range but z part of these combos have less than 42% equity vs a very wide jamming range then you have almost certainly made an error on an earlier street (i.e. preflop or on the flop).

Well I think Pleno never has air.  I think most of the time he will show up with either 1 pair hands like Ax, 8x with some sort of draw like 89dd/T8dd or the broadway flush draws.

I think you mostly show up here with weak 1 pairs and/or draws and you are gonna crai the turn with lots of that range.  If that is pleno's read (and its possible Im reading the whole situation completely wrong) then an overbet shove shuts you down with all your draws and might bluff you off all your weak 1 pairs.  If you do show up with some sort of 2 pair hand here Id assume pleno has some equity against those.

So with that, I think its a fold.  He has just priced you out.

bingo

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   3,212  games     0.001 secs     3,212,000  games/sec

Board: Ad 7d 8c 6c
Dead:  

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    60.507%     58.44%    02.07%              1877           66.50   { 9d9h, 9d9s, 9h9s, 8d8h, 8d8s, 8h8s, 7d7h, 7d7s, 7h7s, 6d6h, 6d6s, 6h6s, A9s, A6s, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd5d, Jc9c, Jd9d, Th9h, Ts9s, Tc8c, Tc7c, Tc6c, Td6d, 9d8d, 9d7d, 9d6d, 9h5h, 9s5s, 86s+, 76s, 5h4h, 5s4s, A9o, A6o, 9c5d, 9c5h, 9c5s, 9d5h, 9d5s, 9h5s, 86o+, 76o, 5c4d, 5c4h, 5c4s, 5d4h, 5d4s, 5h4s }
Hand 1:    39.493%     37.42%    02.07%              1202           66.50   { 9c7c }

Don't know what you guys think about that range but we need 42% to call ott. I can tweak it one way to give us like 45% and another to give us 38%. It's really close, couldn't fault a call with any semblance of a live read. I'l let you guys discuss whether you want to gamble your 'tournament life' or not.

edited; stove sucked and contained KsQs

I really want to know what OP percieves plenos range as. He should never have Ax because this jam makes all worse hands fold. Obviously if you had some kind of strong hand you'd bet a normal amount and hope that (just like you said you were going to) you can get the bb to jam.

Unfortunately if you take out all the Ax hands then it's a fold because it's the Ax hands that puts your % of winning up vs his range. For argument sake vs AK you are 45% to win whereas vs 98o you are just 32% to win.

Id be surprised if he's shoving the nutted hands ie straights and sets.  Imagine his hand is a strong one pair hand looking to get a hero call or a big draw with no showdown value.  So call and outdraw aq would be my advice.

I agree and removed about 1/2 of the set combos and 2/3 of his offsuit straight combos & straight+fd combos. But assuming he never jams those and vs an A heavy range and including some draws we dominate;


   5,280  games     0.001 secs     5,280,000  games/sec

Board: Ad 7d 8c 6c
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    40.511%     39.26%    01.25%              2073           66.00   { 9c7c }
Hand 1:    59.489%     58.24%    01.25%              3075           66.00   { 99, A5s+, KdQd, KdJd, KdTd, Kd9d, Kd8d, Kd6d, Kd5d, Tc8c, Td8d, Tc7c, 98s, 9d7d, 9d6d, 8d5d, 6d5d, 6d4d, 5c3c, 5d3d, 5h3h, A5o+, 98o }

I'm pretty hard pushed to find a range we have a +cev call vs. I think the problem is that a lot of his draws crush us. If we have T8cc I'd like a call a lot more. And I did say I'd leave it to the tourny guys but surely we're not that chuffed about making a breakeven call in this situation. Vs AQ we got 43%.

THIS. I think folding pre-flop is best. 3betting is bad peeling is fine but I think folding is marginally better.

Also, responding to guy's post with "rofl" comes across as very arrogant, and I know you're not arrogant so just letting you know ;)

I did think that, I didn't mean it too of course so I apologise. I just found it funny being told "you have no idea how to play your hand oop to a competent player" when this is a totally non standard tournament spot

I do think villian has Ax hands in his range which are strong. We both know each other so I know hes going to throw some curveballs in there.

obv when i say you i mean "one" when reviewing pha

and there is nothing wrong with min 3b this hand if he is gonna rip 25bbs "all the time"

Ok so I have whizzed this quickly through flopzilla. I will likely have made the odd mistake since I have done it super fast, but this is not hugely important since perfect accuracy is not the key thing... the idea is simply to get a feel for what your range needs to do vs this huge overbet. Then, as long as your analysis is roughly correct (even if there are a few inaccuracies it does not matter), you know 'where the line is' as a starting point and then can adjust exploitatively.

Ok, so I have used the range that you gave, which is:
A7s-A2s,KQs-KJs,J8s,T9s-T7s,98s-97s,86s,76s,65s

This is 52 combos in total. Plus you said "a bunch of diamond combos" so I have added another 12 combos of random diamond draws (with nothing extra) in too - deciding on 12 combos was just a guess since you were not specific, and thus I don't know exactly what suited cards you are playing preflop and whether you might c/r (or even donk) some of your FDs on the flop. Therefore, it is just an approximation... which is fine because that is all we are ever doing anyway.

So in total we have 64 combos on this turn.

Villain has jammed 38k into 14k which means he needs to get folds 73% of the time in order to break even jamming the worst parts of his range (i.e. ATC).

Therefore hero needs to call with 27% of his range. Since villain will often have some equity even with the worst parts of his range, let's bump that number up ever so slightly and say that we need to defend 30% of our range on the turn to his jam. If we don't do this then villain can make a profitable jam with crap like 22 or QJo... and clearly if he is able to do this then we are doing something wrong!

64 x 0.3 = 19.2

Therefore we need to defend around 19 or 20 of our combos. We are 'allowed' to fold a LOT of our range to his jam, since he has risked such a huge amount of chips to win the 14k that is in the pot.

We have 4 combos of straights: T9s(4)
We have 10 combos of 2 pair: A7s(3), A6s(2), 87s(2), 86s(3), 76s(2)
We have 12 combos of top pair: A2s-A5s(12)
Note that with 8 of these 26 combos we also have a FD

This has already got us to way past the 19 or 20 combos that we need to defend. Thus we can fold the worst parts of this range, i.e. the 6 combos of A2s-A4s that do not have a flush draw to go with them. Note that the 2 combos of A5s that do not now have a FD do now have an OESD to go with the top pair.

So our 'perfect GTO calling range' should look like this on the turn:

4 combos of T9s (i.e. a straight)
12 combos of 2 pair: A7s(3), A6s(2), 86s(3), 76s(2)
3 combos of A5s (i.e. TP plus OESD, and one of them has a NFD too)

[Again, note that some of our 'made hands' have FDs to go with them too]

We can fold everything else without worrying that Patrick is able to make a +chipEV jam with a recklessly wide range.

Note that this is an INSANELY strong range! But it is allowed to be insanely strong given that we are facing a massive overbet.

We are folding some really quite good hands, including some top pair hands and even 9d8d for second pair plus OESD plus FD (maybe we could instead fold one combo of A5s and replace it with 9d8d... it likely makes little difference). And this means that the hand you actually held, 9c7c, is a fold to this overbet - given that you have even stronger hands in your range that you are happily folding.

It also means that if Patrick is recklessly over-betting this turn based on a perception that we have a somewhat weak range... he is going to get hugely punished for it, since in reality so much of our range is really strong. And thus, if we feel he is getting 'out of line' here, it is very easy to find good parts of our range to call with instead of folding. In other words, if we decide to make an exploitative adjustment by calling with more than 30% of our range then it is really easy to implement - there are loads of 'good hands' that we can choose not to fold if we have the right read.

Therefore, my initial thoughts are that I don't like Patrick's overbet jam much. It is really easy to defend against even when he is properly balanced (e.g. he is jamming with his really strong stuff like sets too, and not too many [semi-]bluff combos). Moreover, it is also really easy to exploit if we feel he is unbalanced (whether that is due to some ninja live-tell like his left ear twitching lol, your perception of how he plays in these spots, the levelling-war, or even just some gut-feeling). Really though, the most important reason why Patrick's huge overbet is not good IMO is because hero's range is pretty strong on this turn. It is suicidal to start over-betting vs strong ranges... this should be saved for the times when your range is much stronger than your opponent's, especially when your opponent's range is capped (and neither is the case in this hand).

One further thing to think about is this: Maybe we should be leading this turn very often with our range? The reason for this is that (as a flopzillanalysis shows) our range is very, very strong on this particular turn card and is almost certainly a LOT stronger than the BTN's range (especially if he opens the BTN widely and will cbet this Ace high flop with fairly high frequency). There is a natural reflex-tendency to check to the guy with the initiative on a previous street, but this is often an error. We should instead be thinking of how our range compares to our opponent's range. And in spots where our range is much stronger than our opponent's then we should often consider leading with much of this range, regardless of action on the previous street. I realise that check-call flop/donk turn is a rather out of tempo and unusual play to make... and that most good players who use it are doing so for exploitative reasons only. However, in this case it is not an exploitative suggestion, it is just a question of seeing that our range is much stronger than the BTN's on the turn. I am not saying it is definitely correct to donk BTW. I have not looked into it properly, and likely won't do so since I have spent long enough on this hand already. I am just putting it out there to think about.

Additional: I have just taken your turn range at face-value in the above analysis, rather than asking for your preflop range and asking what you would do with that range on the flop etc. It is possible that your range for check-calling the flop is wrong (you might be folding too much on the flop for example), and this is why your range is 'too strong' on this turn card. It is equally possible that your flop check-calling range is fine, you just got a really good turn card for this range, and this is why your turn range is 'too strong'.

Additionally...

First, it is pretty clear that the above GTO calling range easily has enough equity against any sensible jamming range from Patrick. More importantly, it is also clear that the weakest hand in this calling range has sufficient equity. I am not going to pokerstove it, but would obviously be pretty shocked if I am wrong!

Second, now we can start to make assumptions about what Patrick's jamming range looks like and see if we can tinker a little with our GTO calling range to exploit. If we feel Patrick is only jamming two pair or better for value, and is hardly ever (semi-)bluffing, then of course we tighten up our calling range a lot to exploit him. If we feel Patrick is in crazy-man mode and is jamming much wider than he 'should be' then we call him with more then 30% of our range. This much is obvious. But the key thing is to find out approximately where the line is first; so we know what our starting point is before we begin making exploitative adjustments.

And, given that
a) Patrick is a good player and might even be fairly balanced here, and
b) We don't really know what his range is here, what he is thinking, how he is feeling etc.

... it makes little sense to make massive departures from the optimal calling range. We cannot exploit if we don't know what we are exploiting!

However, it is with the 'close spot' parts of our range (the ones that are only just folds or only just calls) that we should use pretty much any live read, gut-feeling or whatever to sway a decision either way. 9c7c is not the very best hand we are folding, although it is not too far from it - depending on whether you think it is better equity-wise vs Patrick's range than A2 with no FD. Thus, I would suggest that we would need a fairly comfortable read on Patrick to adjust by calling with 9c7c instead of folding it. But I would not need a 100% cast-iron read to make this adjustment.

Oh and just a (hopefully) last addition...

When you are considering the relative strength of your range vs your opponent's range obviously the cards you actually hold allow you to take certain combos out of his range - and thus weirdly enough you sometimes might have a better idea of his 'real' (i.e. with card removal) range than your opponent does.

In the hand in question this is especially noticeable if Patrick has a hand containing the Ac. Having this card in his hand means that Patrick knows his opponent cannot have quite a chunk of the combos with which he 'should' be defending the turn. Which might mean that Patrick is able to overbet profitably. That said, I am not 100% convinced that making a 2.5 x pot turn jam is the most profitable way of Patrick playing a hand like Ac 4c!

It does, however, mean that when constructing defending ranges you need to be a little vigilant in spots where making one single card in the deck a 'dead card' might make a huge difference to what your range looks like.

so stu wwyd?  ;D

I'd play the DC cash games instead ldo. Tournaments suck. And Padooki > No Limit Hold'em.

The reality of this hand is you are just guessing. There is no meaningful way of weighting his range and therefore if you get it in here you are hoping you guessed right

There is going to be a much better spot in this tourney than this!

This is why you should think about things in the way I have described above, rather than merely



That is a different consideration. I have no strong opinion on 'tournament life' considerations or all that 'waiting for a better spot' stuff.

It would seem to me, though, that your hourly rate is going to be improved by - when it is close - erring on the side of calling here rather than folding. When you call you either double up (which is good), or bust out immediately (which is also good, although in a different way).

If you bust out you can go and play the cash games and don't have to waste any more time playing a silly live tournament.

fwiw i was expecting Tom to fold all draws and pairs+draws and overcards and snap Ax.

You seem to be implying that you have a range consisting of stuff like AK/AQ and two pair/sets, balanced by some non-showdown flush draws: QcJc/KdTd and such-like. Is this how you visualised your jamming range on the turn?

did we get there? think pads is pretty value-heavy here but wouldnt go to nottingham to fold this.

fwiw, I had 54o.

Tom said he would have snapped w/Ax and because of the 2 fds, my generally image and my in game image I felt a lof of his range consisted of Ax as he called flop quickly and read was he was happy with his hand on the turn. I felt like he would just c/call 6800 and fold on a bunch on river cards if I bet normal, so decided to go for a big jam to induce some wide calls.

and i folded 79cc

And the river was Jc

:D:D:D

Too good honeybadger