|
Title: Facing a check raise with shortish stack Post by: Radagast on April 21, 2013, 10:50:18 PM Playing in a live tourney. 35 players left. Effectively a 30 quid rebuy. Rebuy period ended.
Last hand of 600/1200/100 I have recently joined this table. I have played 2 hands in 2 orbits. Both times I have AKs. Both times I raise 2.5x. Once I hit on the flop, once I dont. Both times I C-bet and dont get called. Villain is a lady who has played maybe 2 hands per orbit. Most notable calling a 3bet shove with AK. She lost to KJ. She is in late position and open limps playing 50k. I make it 3k from 18k with Jh Js. Both blinds call. Again, both these players have been tight. SB has 25k, BB has 60k. Back around to lady who makes it 9.5k. Pot is now 19400. My thought process was this.....I either shove or fold obv. If I shove the blinds will fold and the lady will call. Maybe if the lady has AK, one or both the blinds could fold some of her outs? If I shove my remaining 15k in and she calls the pot is around 43k? But I know overall I am behind her range of JJ+ and AK, maybe AQs. I dont think she is getting fancy here with worse but you never know. ? Be gentle. Title: Re: Facing a check raise with shortish stack Post by: WotRTheChances on April 22, 2013, 03:00:26 AM Put it in... it's really not even a decision here. Even if the lady is 80 and hasn't played a hand since 1955 i'm not folding or doing anything other than jamming. Facts are she's been active(ish), she's limped from late position (pretty rare people limp QQ+ from late position). You've got 15bbs and you've got JACKS.
There's also the overlay of two people flicking in the 3k from the blinds, so assuming the blinds fold (if they call you're 100% ahead of them anyway) you'll be HU vs the lady if she calls putting in a further 15k to win 43k (nearly 3:1), so you need about 26/27% equity to get it in here... i'd argue you've got a decent chunk over 50% equity here... i.e. it's not close. I expect to see 77+, AJs+, AQo+ here most of the time, which we're ~57%. In short, don't even consider anything other than jamming. Title: Re: Facing a check raise with shortish stack Post by: Radagast on April 22, 2013, 11:59:21 AM Thanks for replying. I jammed after 40 seconds or so. She had Kings.
I guess in game I thought her range would be tight, but couldnt get my head around her risking it just getting completed and going to the flop multi way. After I busted, I wondered if I should be folding and waiting for a better spot. |