blonde poker forum

This week I have opened two new accounts and proceeded to place six bets in total.  Three of these were on the Champions League semi finals, two of which won, one was on a New York Yankees game which lost and the other two were on lower league football which both lost.  I can now have a maximum of 31p on one account and I havent been able to get low enough on the other account to find an amount they are willing to take on anything.  Now as many of you know I work in the bookmaking industry but I am beginning to wonder if things arent getting somewhat ridiculous.  I can completely understand the need for bookmakers to assess and limit risk but are we now not getting to the point whereby if you show any signs of intelligence then most bookmakers want absolutely nothing to do with you but if you show the opposite then they will happily take advantage.  Slowly but surely they are killing the game and it cannot be to their own advantage because if punters feel like they have no chance to win then there is no incentive at all for them to bet.

Reminds me of Matt's comedy thread:

http://blondepoker.com/forum/index.php?topic=56678.0

:D

Yes, but all the while, Turnover for the big UK Retail Bookies (Online) is increasing at a massive rate. Says more, or as much, about the punters, & society, than anything.

Presumably genuine value can still be had at places like Pinny, & on the Exchanges & Spreads though?

I have always been a strong believer that bookmakers can do business with who they like and bet to whatever size they want but there is something that just doesnt sit well with me now.  One of the firms was 888 and I bet on the Champions League semi finals with them.  Their limits for the bets I placed were 2500 on the win single and 500 on the HT-FT bets I placed.  I didn't get close to these limits but I did have a decent bet and they didnt move the prices immediately after I bet which was in the run up to the game so presumably they didnt consider them to be a mistake at that point and were happy to take them yet when they won they suddenly didnt want to take bets from me anymore.  This wasnt a dog race at Kinsley or a maiden at Southwell where I might know more than they do.  It was a football match between two of the biggest teams in the world whose every single game is telelvised.  I had no information that they didn't.  If I was a football odds compiler there I would be embarrassed that there was somebody there that has such little faith in my abilities that they just assume that someone that opened an account yesterday knows more about the Champions League semi finals than I did....not only that but he knows so much more he can, apparently, overcome a 8%+ inbuilt edge.  It just seems as though if you are not completely exploitable and can be guaranteed to not only lose but lose at a high margin then they just dont want anything from you.  When that is the case then surely they are just praying on the weak?  Isnt that somewhat morally bankrupt?

I'm assuming you bet Walsall with 888?

I believe they shut down every acct that bet the Saddlers at 13/8.

Still, beats Jennings who called it palpable error

its more fun going round the bookies, cloak and dagger style

I did bet Walsall with them yes but the bet was only a fraction of the Champions League bets.  What I don't understand at all is why they don't move the price.  I move the price on almost every bet I take because I want to write action.  In this situation on Walsall I might have had 200 quid limits if someone had a bet on them at 13/8 I would go 6/4 and push out Crewe to 13/8-7/4, if I then take another bet i go 11/8 Walsall and 15/8 Crewe, if that is an overreaction I will get a bet on Crewe.  I might occasionally take a view and take more but generally I will move them and try and make some margin.  I will almost certainly not be taking a big view on a meaningless lower limit game and, even if I am the trading director at Ladbrokes or 365 with all their volume if I see more than a handful of fifty quid or higher bets on a Wednesday night for Walsall I will probably take it down and have a look to try and figure out what is going on.  I might even find out and go 9/4 Crewe to try and get some money off the arbers (well actually off my competitors via the arbers) who can take advantage.

 What I absolutely don't do is sit there and take a number big bets @ 13/8, not move the game and then have the gall to throw my toys out of the pram the next day because a few punters were, for once, better informed than me.  Let me contrast this situation with another firm.  Yesterday I got some information that something seemed astray with a game in Northern Ireland.  i bet it at +1.25 1.85 with Pinnacle for a couple of hundred quid which was their limit.  They moved it to 1.72 (I think).  Two hours later it was 1.40 so by my calculations assuming they got nothing back the other side they had about a grands liability on it.  I won half the bet but was happily able to place bets with them the rest of the day.  They didn't take anything silly and they had hit their limit on a relatively minor league so they moved it.  It just seems so simple.  If you are a bookmaker make a book.  Try your hardest to maker your initial prices fairly strong but respect the market and punters and try to get them all in the book and earn a bit.  Too many firms these days seem to think bookmaking is about gambling with and beating people.  It really doesnt have to be.  If you are aggressive enough you can lay all the competitors for a margin and then you dont care where the money comes from.

I couldn't afford the bus fare from Montego Bay!!!!

Thats bad, didnt the bet lose ? Seems redic. overreaction

Only had problems with my paddy/sky/tote account but I made sure they were set up carefully bet on decent markets for a while. Paddy I ruined with some politics bets and now I can only get what I want in nothing markets like the Man U game today. As a runner it was a nightmare but a lot of fun. It must be depressing to want 10 £1k bets and hit the quota on 3, quarter stake some and have nothing on others to have the wrong ones lose. However, the guy I worked for said he'd have retired inside two years if he could bet what he wanted so its not surprising he was limited. The market seems ruined to anyone with a clue but when you hear a big punter talk they give it away. I had a mate brag to me 365 refunded a bet he had on a horse that was a non-runner and he was delighted they gave him the chunky lump back, but that says it all. I know another guy who ONLY bets with 365. Loves them to pieces as I'm sure they love him! The mug money is a joke, and rising as Tikay says.

My nephew likes a bet but doesn't really know what he's doing, so he asks me any time there's a good value bet text him and he has a couple of quid on it.

He had £20 on Walsall with 888 at 13/8 and his account got limited.

Pretty pathetic.

Now I am really pissed off......they have just emailed me to remind me of my bonus!!!!!!!

It is pretty silly how these bookies have far higher limits than the Asians/Pinnacle early in the week, go best price and then get annoyed when they get a flurry of bets on minor games.

'so you're letting me get more on this and at a better price? ok'

What was wrong with walsall game that they took hump with?

The opponents had made a statement that they would be playing an academy side, as the result of the game didn't affect anything else in tthe league. The point of this was that Walsall were a lot bigger than they should have been...even though they didn't win.

Hardly insider info, twitter. Hence the punters' disgust.

If they can call it a palp, then can I get my money back everytime I offer over the odds on betfair?

They need to grow a pair. Pathetic

This guy was boasting this morning that an associate of his had taken his 365
balance from 4k to 20k at the Punchestown festival. I've long since decided not to try to explain
that he must be a huge loser on the site. Never hear of any losers btw

coral account no more here after the walsall episode

wish they had palpable error the bet!

Ouch. Double rub there.

Am I missing something here?  Isn't finding a bet like Walsall what the whole game is about and I am saying this from a bookmaking perspective as well as a punting one.  Everytime someone has a bet they bet into a margin in the bookies favour.  That is the price of them giving us a go and to protect them.  It also means that, if we don't know more than them they are getting one over on us.  Normally to the tune of about 8-10%.  Occasionally, like on Saturday, you will get one over on them.  that is what recreational punters dream of.  That one time when they got it right and got one over the auld enemy and had a touch.  in the case of Walsall punters at 6/4 had like a 15% edge on the closing market.  If bookmakers close accounts for that then what have the punters got to dream about?

Running good.

Archie Karas please.

Do any of the brick and mortar bookies offer odds in the shop that are remotely close to their online price?  Which are the best and worst for this?  I'm referring to sports like football and cricket NOT horse racing.  I've pretty much resorted to Pinnacle/SBO/12Bet in the past few months as I just presumed shop prices wouldn't be of any use.

shop prices are always poor in comparison, but they do occasionally give money back bets in favour of certain results.

They bet to much bigger %s in the shops but do tend to hold the prices a lot longer esp on football.

Lets say their coupon price was 11/10 about a team who was trading 2.22-2.24 at the start of the week.

By 2pm on Saturday the machine price has contacted to 2.04-2.06 the shops will almost definitely still lay the 11/10 as long as it's not for silly stakes.

It would have to move to something like 1.95 before they change the price because they know how much punters hate coupon price changes.

Last weekend for example Hills were 7/4 Athletico in the Madrid derby - a price they made before Mourhino announced he would rest a few players.

The Betfair price moved to 2.28 but Hills carried on laying the 7/4 right until kick off (I believe - I got on at 7/4 at about 4pm) to a maximum of £50 per punter.

Snap for my Laddies account.

Ridonkulous

Can't see why accounts would be closed over a bet where the info was in the general domain.

It wasn't like Crewe played their under 12s, in a mid season game that mattered, it was end of season with nothing to play for and the info wasn't as dramatic as first appeared............and Walsall lost FFS.......

Also pretty sure that prices move far more during the season in games without some "info" and accounts don't get closed

I would be asking the companies why my account was closed, cos it all seems very odd to me. I have had accounts closed on me, but never for losing.

If bookies are closing accounts after a losing bet, then, well, we are all well and truly fooked.

Worth asking for an explanation IMO.

the information was not really in the public domain when i backed them and put them on thread

it became public domain shortly afterwards

You are literally 1,000/1 to get an explanation beyond "it's a trading decision sir and no further explanation can be given"

waste of time

tbh coral were rarely much use to me

the fact it was a bet of £65 galls me more than anything hardly a massive liability to them

Im just a rec punter a like a wee nibble on horses now and again and generally use my laddies or PP online account.

Ive recently started havin a punt on a few items in tikays fred on football, dogs and golf.

Since this ive noticed that whereas in the past my horse bets usually in the £25 win or ew category seemed to be accepted immediately now it seems to stall and take up to 4/5 times as long to be accepted.

Does this indicate that my bets are now being monitored - ive never seen anything to say it is being referred to a trader or such?

Cheers

the firm who went 13/8 walsall and kept it probably just filtering the sharpies (conspiracy theory)

(http://cdn.memegenerator.net/instances/400x/15140343.jpg)

Ice cream status confirmed with an invitation to the Dante meeting, champers and 4 course lunch.

just went to the local corals to try and get a early price on a horse race tommorow

fair enough they wont lay overnight in a shop (most dont) apart from saturday

however i was kindly offered a £5 free machine spin as she did not recognise me as a regular, and was kindly advised to take the price online (ironic)


the above sums up the state of the bookmaking industry

The problem is that there is presently an anomaly in the layers tax regimes.

Hopefully if this gambling bill passes we could get a GP tax rate of about 6% across all revenue streams rather than 15% for UK layers and zero % for offshore.

Bookies need to be profitable to lay bets. Horses and footy margins are so tight it's not worth taking any random punters on anymore so the astute operators are just biding their time waiting for tax changes and in the mean time laying their regulars.

You need to hope they don't change the stakes on the roulette machines or you will only have betfair and pinnacle left to get on with at all.

High street bookmakers essentially exist these days just for those machines. There's a limit of 4 per shop hence lots of new bookies opening.

There are? Overall? I'm astonished at that, if true.

no idea on the national figures

but when i visited coral last night there were a new betfred and lads next door to eachother that must have gone up within the last 18 months

I think that overall yes there's an increase.

They're mostly focused around poorer areas...

3 new shops in Darlington have opened in the last 6 months - 1 each of Betbaldie, Hills and Ladbrokes.

The last independent shut down though :(

Presumably new outlets openeing is the economics of FBOT's.

Which, I think, prey on the stupid and the vulnerable. (Surely no one sensible plays FBOTs in the shops...)

absolutely insane the growth in highstreet outlets of bookies over the past 3 years or so.

[   ] recession if you're a bookie.

FOBTs :)

Bookies are essentially mini casinos in the high street.

You need to consider that bookies can take poor quality property stock in bad areas for tiny rents! This makes their model work much better in difficult times.

Watford: 3 new shops opened in recent weeks. Two either very close or actually next door to existing betting shops. Scary to think how much machines must be pulling in for this to work.

At Genting Sheffield last night, was sharing a table with snooker celebs Hendry and Willie Thorne.
i remarked that a fellow snooker pro has been barred from a Paddy Power shop for winning too much. Willie was soon in full flow and said he'd tried to have a 1000/1200 on a horse at Kempton in Corals.
they offered him 100/120 and the rest at SP
Most of you may know that Willie has lost 000's punting in his time,if you're take someone on it would surely be him. If i was trading for Corals and the shop came thro for PTL on that bet it would be yes please, and would he like some more. (it won at 5/6 btw,but thats been results orientated)
They seem to treat everyone as a "sharp mind" whereas when i had a betting shop they were all mugs til they had won 2/3k off me,then its either give them the red card or use them as a mark and punt them yourself. Twenty years ago i used to stand horses for probably 25% of my bankroll most days of the week,but i knew he was a massive losing punter so i opened my shoulders and took him on. Not good for the stress levels and probably the reason my hair left me but sure was an adrenaline rush and i did come out on the right side of the battles.

If Corals are knocking back Willie Thorne to lose a grand at 5/6 then the game is well and truly done.  they honestly might as well shut their doors.

(http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/120702_ladbrokes_P1030388.jpg)

from

http://simple-living-in-suffolk.co.uk/2012/07/ladbrokes-double-vision-more-betting-capacity-needed-for-the-recession/

Wow.

You can never be too carefull crossing the road!!

Reckon they funded that 2nd shop out of ice-cream money on Walsall to go up/down/middle.

No but VC probs have upgraded their presence  :(

What some may class as a bad area actually can have very high rents. The rateable value of my premises is half that of my last shop yet the rent is double. Footfall is key.

http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/why-do-we-prop-up-an-industry-destroying-lives-across-britain-8606217.html

Good article imo.

Last year, each machines in Ladbrokes averaged £946 a week (each shop can have 4) - £41.5m in total for the year.

I'm pretty sure that will totally eclipse what they're getting in terms of poker revenue!

First time I went to Vegas there were a few Ladbrokes shirted people on the same plane. Do they still have a poker room?

They do, but's not a priority for them any more (not surprising after about 24 consecutive quarters of decline).