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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: cambridgealex on April 30, 2013, 08:50:40 PM



Title: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: cambridgealex on April 30, 2013, 08:50:40 PM
French 100euro freezeout, we are 5 handed atm.

Seat 2: teps (19235)
Seat 3: clem2511 (18610)
Seat 4: Sr Croissant (19875)
Seat 5: OmeletteduFR (42180)
Seat 6: indypandas (21150)
*** ANTE/BLINDS ***
indypandas posts ante 25
teps posts ante 25
clem2511 posts ante 25
Sr Croissant posts ante 25
OmeletteduFR posts ante 25
indypandas posts small blind 150
teps posts big blind 300
Dealt to Sr Croissant [Jh Aspades]
*** PRE-FLOP ***
clem2511 raises 300 to 600
Sr Croissant calls 600
OmeletteduFR calls 600
indypandas folds
teps calls 300
*** FLOP *** [Qs Kd Ts]
teps checks
clem2511 bets 1335
Sr Croissant calls 1335
OmeletteduFR calls 1335
teps calls 1335
*** TURN *** [Qs Kd Ts]
teps checks
clem2511 checks
Sr Croissant bets 4555
OmeletteduFR folds
teps folds
clem2511 calls 4555
*** RIVER *** [Qs Kd Ts Td][7s]
clem2511 checks
Sr Croissant??

Pot is 17k, we have 13k back, villain has 12k. Villian is unknown to us, but a good reg apparently.  


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on April 30, 2013, 09:00:11 PM
I would go ahead and raise flop here, there are bad cards for our action, and he is cbetting into 2 people on a board that smashes their range + his sizing is pretty big. He can come along with a lot of weak (relatively) hands.

As played, turn obviously standard.

On the river I would go ahead and jam, I expect him to just keep betting his full houses on the turn 3 ways as you guys are going to check back a bunch. I don't think he c/calls many fds on the turn so doesn't change much except for the fact it minimizes our bluff combos, but I still think we are usually freerolling by jamming the river, especially with the As.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: TL900 on April 30, 2013, 09:09:00 PM
5k/fold i think. he will convince himself we have KQ and flick it in with AA enough


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: rfgqqabc on April 30, 2013, 09:47:18 PM
How good is good?

5k/fold is super sweet and something I hadn't really considered. I always hate myself when I bet 5k they jam and I end up calling. This gives us some absurd pot odds to be getting. I'm trying to figure out a hand he can call us with that is worse tbh, JT? I'm not really worried about a flush but he must check KK/QQ a bunch surely? It allows random hands to stab and gives them a street to get there.
 


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on April 30, 2013, 09:52:24 PM
i'd fold aa to 5k more than 13 i think.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: TL900 on April 30, 2013, 09:55:43 PM
i'd fold aa to 5k more than 13 i think.

but this guy was unknown, so assume bad until proven otherwise no?


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on April 30, 2013, 09:57:01 PM
op says he is good i think.

Vs fish then i like 5800


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: cambridgealex on April 30, 2013, 10:45:33 PM
He was unknown to me at the time.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on April 30, 2013, 10:52:02 PM
then i like 4-6k


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on April 30, 2013, 10:52:28 PM
Theres pretty similar spot in a video i watched today actually, will make a thread.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Evilpengwinz on May 01, 2013, 12:09:54 AM
I would go ahead and raise flop here, there are bad cards for our action, and he is cbetting into 2 people on a board that smashes their range + his sizing is pretty big. He can come along with a lot of weak (relatively) hands.

As played, turn obviously standard.

On the river I would go ahead and jam, I expect him to just keep betting his full houses on the turn 3 ways as you guys are going to check back a bunch. I don't think he c/calls many fds on the turn so doesn't change much except for the fact it minimizes our bluff combos, but I still think we are usually freerolling by jamming the river, especially with the As.

I prefer raising the flop too for the same reason as you.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: EvilPie on May 01, 2013, 12:49:46 AM
Check back seems absolutely fine to me on this board.

The bet/fold river line is getting a bit old now so there's too high a risk of a 'good' player seeing through it and sticking a bluff in your eye.

Low variance line ftw in this spot.



Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: DMorgan on May 01, 2013, 01:51:37 AM
+1 to raise flop, I think when he cbets here he almost always has enough equity to continue vs a raise and it's a board that I don't see us inducing many bluffs on by flatting the flop.

As played I jam now, you actually rep somewhat thin since you'd 3b KK/JJ pretty much always and TT a good amount pre and with the Qs Ts 7s dead that cuts out a lot of your spade combos that would peel pre. I agree with pleno that there's really no reason for him not to barrel his houses.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Ant040689 on May 01, 2013, 10:26:08 AM
Yup raising flop for reasons already explained seems the best idea to me.

Turn as played seems fine.

I normally miss value by checking the river, but it is hard to tell cold what i would have done with the flow of the game. Has he full housed or flushed? Would he value bet out those hands on the river? Tough with the stack sizes. He may have assumed you were always going to jam it in so may be dealing with a monster, or thinks perhaps that he only wants to check call with KJ or AK which seem plausible. The latter seems more plausible for the fact he check called the turn and is seemingly containing the pot.

May also be doing this with a 10. A10 maybe.

Does a jam on the river reduce our value because we are repping a flush and possibly getting him off trips/top pair?


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: youthnkzR on May 01, 2013, 10:38:35 AM
100% raising this flop. Jam river as we have the best hand nearly always.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 01, 2013, 11:51:43 AM
I think flatting flop is fine with two people still left to act. We can get it in if someone behind takes off with 2pr/flush draws/set.

Just a sick runout that's all. River is really meh, I think jamming will a certain % of the time to get small flushes to fold, which is the only hand I can see that checks the river that we're behind of.

In game I def jam, but checking behind def has merits in that a 40bb stack is still a nice stack. How far away from the FT are we?


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on May 01, 2013, 11:53:34 AM
They aren't folding FDs/sets and maybe even not 2pair


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on May 01, 2013, 11:54:58 AM
I think flatting flop is fine with two people still left to act. We can get it in if someone behind takes off with 2pr/flush draws/set.

Just a sick runout that's all. River is really meh, I think jamming will a certain % of the time to get small flushes to fold, which is the only hand I can see that checks the river that we're behind of.

In game I def jam, but checking behind def has merits in that a 40bb stack is still a nice stack. How far away from the FT are we?

What small flushes do you think he c/calls turn with? Can't think he has any of these combos.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Pinchop73 on May 01, 2013, 12:10:01 PM
Not a great deal admittedly. But if he's dece he's deep enough to open utg 5handed with JsXs, 9sXs etc.

The more I think about it the more I think a check behind isn't really that nitty at all. I can't think of much a dece player calls with that we beat. I really don't like bet folding with this spr, we're not getting full value when were ahead, and we're not getting folds from anything that beats us. But that wouldn't be the first time I go against the grain. :p

I think the turn is the most interesting street. In that, what does villain think we bet on the turn? Check calling that particular card, I think he's pretty polarised, either totally nutted (he feels we're very strong thus allows us to valuecut ourselves), or he's pretty thin and hero'ing vs nut flush draw etc. Neither of these calls 5k into 13k with 12k behind on that particular river card.

Super interesting hand though, cheers for posting it, hope I've not derailed too much. Cheers


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: pleno1 on May 01, 2013, 01:19:20 PM
yeh but just because he can open 9xss doesnt mean he would ever c/call the turn with no sdv and reverse implied odds it would be prety horrific.

If we expect him to never have spades and usually barreling full houses ott, then it makes checking otr v bad imo


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: youthnkzR on May 01, 2013, 02:20:23 PM
Losing tons of value by checking river.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: cambridgealex on May 01, 2013, 02:50:26 PM
I wasn't really worried by the river so much. There's perhaps 4 combos of flushes in villians range given all the blockers that are out there, Ks Js, Js 9s, Ks 9s and Js 8s (maybe).

In my experience, randoms (and he was random to me at the time) might take this line with these hands up to the river, but then they just donk jam. So when he checks it's a sort of green light that he doesn't have a flush. Of course it's possible he'll play these hands that way, but given that there's only 3 or 4 combos of them anyway, I decided it wasn't worth worrying too much about the flush.

That isn't to say the river is a brick - it massively reduces my perceived bluff combos, thus making it less likely for villain to hero call with the hands we are trying to get heroed from which are: AA, AK, KQ, AT, JT, J9. There's still a lot of combos of these hands (massively outweighing the combos of flushes, so even if he folds these hands 80% of the time and calls with a flush 100% of the time it'll be a fistpump jam combinatorially (forgetting the full house combos for the time being)).

The turn is the most worrying card. When he checks it, it's another "green light" that we are winning. Probably. It is an unusual line to check a fullhouse on the turn in a 4way pot with all the draws / hands that can call but will check back / scare cards on the river. It's still a worry though, more of a worry than the flush imo. And there's way more combos of houses/quads than flushes (13 combos)

Will he call with worse? Random frenchy - yes, quite a lot of the time. I've seen them call with KJ here, snap AA, KQ and I think most would struggle to fold Tx or J9.

That's why I jammed.

He had QQ. I've since learnt that he's a good but slightly nitty reg. Do we like his check on the turn? Now we know he's a good but slightly nitty reg, do we prefer check back, 5k/fold, or jam?



Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: WotRTheChances on May 01, 2013, 06:00:45 PM
I raise flop most of the time here, for reasons already stated.
Now it's kinda tough. I know the guy is a fairly nitty reg... not sure on what end of good he is... not a sicko from what i've seen, but certainly not bad. Feels like we're ahead on the river most of the time, but seems like villain barely has a range to call with his hands that are worse than ours. Seemed like he might have AJ a bunch too. KQ sometimes (clear river fold for him). Its just hard for us ever to be bluffiing in his eyes... so what hands worse than AJ are we jamming for value... none, so he should be able to fold pretty perfectly. Only because its 4-way to the flop and the way the action has gone, our hand just has to be really strong. In game I probably just jam, but realistically its very thin.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Mondeoman on May 01, 2013, 10:46:16 PM
Don't mind the flat on the flop to try and keep other players in and under rep your hand.
Versus a good or even semi competent player prob not worth value betting the river - cant think of many hands that someone who can hand read would call with.  Versus a fish obv have to bet.
Agree if you do value bet you should bet fold 5-6k.  You don't really have to worry about being bluffed raised off your hand cos villain never gets to the river with a hand they will feel the need to bluff with (plus about 99% of players don't have a river check raise bluff in their locker in any spot).
Its not really relevant that you usually have the best hand by the river what is relevant is are you ahead of villains calling range.  Id say answer here is no.
You are never bluffing in this spot so you don't need to balance with thin value bets. 
I like his check on the turn as if he bets again its obvious he has an absolute monster and he's also happy to give a free card to a flush draw.

Were you using a hud?  Can be useful in assessing how fishy oppo might be.


Title: Re: Check back too nitty / Jam too thin?
Post by: Mondeoman on May 01, 2013, 10:49:13 PM
Also 3 bet pre