blonde poker forum

My stack - £2900  image is TAG, I’ve played very few hands, but the hands I have played I’ve played fast.  Showdown around 4 times in the last 3 hours each time tabling the effective(ish) nuts.

Vilian - £2500ish  LAG Plays every hand, after a few swings is now even for the night and we're playing props, so loves to gamble.

SB – 2
BB – 5
UTG – Straddle £10 (I’m the only one not straddling at the table)
Hero –  Ahrt Qc Jc Js  Open to £30

Everyone but the SB call

Flop –  7d Td  8h

Checks round to me – I bet £70

BTN- Calls
UTG – Calls

Turn  9h

UTG Checks
Hero - £255
BTN – Folds
UTG – Tank calls

River is  5h

UTG throws out £400

What would you do....?

its my experience that ppl don't believe when I try to rep a str8 flush

He would be trying to rep the nut flush not the straight flush.

Yep, I'd put the straight flush out of the Villains range, as the bet seems more like a cheap showdown than a value bet.  Villain is aware that I'd usually bet fairly large on the river, the pot is around £800ish and my river bet would always be something like 6-700 so seems like he's trying to get to showdown cheaply with a mid range hand.  

.....?

I know that

Looks like a great spot to flick in £1250

Given your rep and that lovely  Ahrt in your hand I don't really see another option.

It helps that he's dwell called the turn. Shows that he's at least prepared to stop and think before sticking his money in.

Are you likely to bet this hand the way you did with the runner runner flush?

And would your oppo know that?

I think I'd call any 3 bet from you there with any flush.

I am a fish though.

I'm a bit of a plo noob but it seems v.hard for you to have Ah Xh as well as QJ8 or QJxx so I think he should perhaps call with worse flushes but even so it depends on your betting range on the turn? If you had J8 with nut hearts would it be correct to bet the turn anyway? If so it feels like a spot you can bluff but otherwise I'm a touch nervous as to how likely it is for you to have the nuts on all 3 postflop streets (if you rep this)

Against certain players with a certain image, which you seem to have, you can probably just smash heaps in and win the pot imo.

I would call based on that.

i would fold based on that/

I would defo defo defo not bet the flop, oop into 4 ppl v bad flop to cbet without a lot more equity than this.

mmmm obv tempted OTR but im not entirely convinced this iis a great spot o raise the actual NF for vallue, ppl dnt tend to go value heavy like this in cash games id expect every non NF he has just to bluff catch this river, and its v possible for him to have 6h 7h.

So if we don't bluff at it are we just giving up?

Do we auto assume he's backed in to a flush and let him have it or think he might be bluffing and flick in a call?

I'd never be flatting in this position, his hand is almost always a flush.  If he had QJ I'd have heard about it on the turn (Based on the player), Single diamond draw would have usually given up on the turn because if it hit Villain wouldn't get paid.

I agree with the flicking in £1250 or fold line...

If Lil'Dave's population read on live PLO players is correct (i.e. they will check-call the river to bluff catch with almost all their flushes) then you have a clearly profitable river call - because if he 'only' value bets the straight flush or nut flush then he is so likely to be bluff heavy when you have the Ahrt in your hand.

And even if Lil'Dave's read is not 100% correct then it may still be a profitable bluff catch. Of course, your read is that he 'almost always' has a flush here though...

In all seriousness, do live full ring PLO players really value-bet the river here with a J high flush? Pretty much 95% of generic players would bluff catch with those hands here every time, it's PLO people are scared of the nuts everytime.

BTW, i'd never bluff the river when checked to here, and I still think the C-Bet is a big mistake.

Typed a long reply, confused myself, but basically:

Laggy gamblers don't bet fold nearly often enough to raise here.

so, if we raise we rep very narrow as hard to have straight and also have hearts, lots easier for us to have a blocker.

Even laggy gamblers have learned about naked Ace bluffs and they overestimate the frequency with which they occur.

It's player dependent on whether to call here but without info I probably just squirm a little and muck.

Seems like easy call and hope to fade sf's.

yh.

I'd call.

Yeah was pretty bad.. But does this bet make the bluff more believable...?

I'm calling here usually. I think all options are totally valid and I don't hate any depending on your read of him and his tendencies.

no, I think it makes it either indifferent, or less believable depending on what cards he has in his hand, if he has and of the stright/wrap cards in hearts then your credibility is going to be reduced slightly and there is no way for you to know.

You have the blockers OTF, which is useful but this flop texture is SO wet, and smashes everyone's range way harder then yours it's not like you need specifically a straight to continue here, the big advantage to to blockers is that you can barrell off as well but the problem is the nuts is v likely to change on turns/rivers so you'd need to be quite lucky for the flopped straight to still be a legit value betting hand by the river, coupled with the fact we're only pretending to have it.

Had 3 pretty stndg hands today actually which made me think of this hand.

Hand (1) I open AA97 single with a bare Ac and got 1caller, flop comes J93hhc he c/c turn Qc he chk I check river 8c he bet 1/3 pot and i raised big he folded instantly.

Hand (2) Called an open with J864ds (6h 4h) flop came Kh Qh Jh 4 handed im 3rd to act chk chk chk - turn is a offsuit 3 chk chk I chked again as there was a few trappy trevor's in the hand, river bricks chk chk i bet last player tanks for a bit and calls with Th 8h.

Hand (3) I opened 4689sng in the CO and the btn calls, flops 57Kr (1 spade) i bet big he calls, turn is 2s i bet big he calls, river is Qs i chk he chks back Ks 7s

I think bluffing is pretty bad here; if he's backed into a flush, it's pretty difficult to believe you have one too, and you've put money in on the flop and turn, making the backdoor flush less believable. He could easily talk himself into a call on the basis that you could be trying to fold out a chop; also more believable because you've made your hand look like a straight. He's probably also thinking to himself that he's not backed into a flush just to bet-fold it.

We should also remember that people tend to pigeonhole their opponents on the basis of what they would do, and a bluffy, laggy player will be thinking that you're on the same level as him. It's just what people do, how people justify their plays, why people moan that low stakes players don't know how to fold.

He can be bluffing here too, but it doesn't seem likely enough to justify a call. I generally fold here but it's the sort of situation where feel and timing come into it, and I certainly couldn't fault you for a call.

Why are you the only guy not straddling? I hate being that guy.

Flop I don't hate the c-bet with blockers and outs but I certainly wouldn't do it everytime. Might do it most times with a bdfd.

Not straddling because because there's only 3 decent stacks on the table, the rest are just trying to get there money in, so didn't really want to accommodate tbh

Yeah was pretty bad thinking, the guy was another WAZZ (To run like Piper = to hit everything against people that will pay you off) who actually did have a straight flush so my raise was 1450, he quickly put the rest of his chips in and I was inclined to call based on the size of the pot.  Aaarrggghhh

But on the river I didn't even consider him having the straight flush..