blonde poker forum

Live £1/2 cash at DTD. Game is very deep, stacks involved are all ~£1500. Kurt a bit less. Think we are 6handed, and the £8 straddle is on.

I am SB, Kurt is £4 straddle, Mitch is £8 straddle.

Folds to me, I raise Ad Jd to £36, Kurt calls, Mitch makes it £110. (This exact same thing happened either last orbit or the orbit before, I folded, Kurt defended and won the pot with a river bet. Was evident Mitch had a non premium, the scallywag). This in no way means he's more or less likely to be value heavy this time, could go either way.

Anyway, I call, Kurt calls after a 10 second think.

Ac Qd Jh (£332)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch bets £150, I call, Kurt.

Kc (£782)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch checks. Both take about 5 seconds.

Ahrt (£782)

I check, Kurt checks, Mitch thinks/waits for 10 seconds and announces allin, for about £1200, we're playing about the same.

WHY U DO DIS

Do people open bigger pre btw super deep OOP vs three loose players (Tom Walster is the other player, in the bb)

£42? I guess your opening tight, so bigger is better, costs Mitch more when his antics fail. Dunno 36 feels in the right area.

Mitch can't really know how strong our hand is here? Feels a bit underepped, it feels like its v.hard for anyone to call this and therefore probably a bluff, but do you have any history here? He can't jam worse for value? I'm presuming Mitch thinks we are the only ones who can call here as Kurt can't really have it. I don't see how we fold with the ace blocker /jack but its gross

I understand what you mean but also seems like a bad bluff spot/ sizing... No?

He really never value bets worse? Could totally see him playing KK/QQ/JJ the same way? I know we block JJ but KK/QQ seems conceivable?

I know it's a small value range but I do think you beat some value shoves.


 Ahrt

1200 to win 1982= 60% equity needed

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

   1,050,410  games     0.558 secs     1,882,455  games/sec

Board: Ac Kc Qd Jh Ah
Dead: 

   equity    win    tie          pots won    pots tied   
Hand 0:    42.864%     42.86%    00.00%            450251            0.00   { AdJd }
Hand 1:    57.136%     57.14%    00.00%            600159            0.00   { KK, AQo+ }

I don't see him valuebetting KK/QQ/JJ to this size as we need to call with worse/a house without an A. If Mitch jams QQ we need to call with a ten for him to win? Doesn't seem too likely.
Still feel like I'm calling, jamming an ace as a bluff seems silly but if we are folding AJ and can't have AK very often then we are folding heaps.

any chance he's turning Tx or KQ into a bluff?

You keep doing this wrong.

Re: the hand, personally I'm not folding vs Mitch cos he's so bad, probs thinks he's going for thin value with a ten or something.

I think its a call, pretty tough for this to be value with the sizing, seems very optimistic to jam QQ/KK here hoping to be called by Ax/Tx. Much more likely imo that he has a hand that doesn't win at showdown but he knows a jam will likely fold out Tx which both you and Kurt can have. I think he'd probably also expect aces full to lead river to get value from Tx so you're really under-repped.

well induced vs villain in question imo

Yes, you need to learn the right way of working this out. It is easy. You actually have the 'right formula', but you just need to add a 1- to it. In other words hero requires ~40% equity (although there are other factors to consider such as the small possibility that Kurt has hero beaten).

Often, just checking your answer using a 'beginners mistake rule' can alert you that you have made an error. In this case the 'beginners mistake rule' check would flash a warning light because your answer says you need more than 50% equity. This is NEVER EVER the case. And if you think about it logically you will realise why. If you ever get to an answer which says you need more than 50% equity to call a river (or all-in) bet then you must have made a mistake. If have 50% equity then you ALWAYS have a profitable call, regardless of the size of the overbet.

Note that this only applies to river bets or all-in bets on earlier streets. If facing a flop bet you can't just estimate that you have x% equity and thus call... because your opponent can bet the turn and river too.

Meh if we lose but I can't ever fold vs Mitch.

Wouldn't be wasting too much brain power with a hand that ranks in top three of all the hands available.

I'm a total fish, I had an excel table with all this set up somewhere to stop silly errors. Inexcusable. Had already gone to google as a punishment.

Seems like we have AQ/AJ fairly often. I think value betting JJ-KK on the river would be a mistake from his point of view. Might come down to what you expect him to do with AQ pre (3b or flat?). Seems like a call, hoping he turns something into a bluff or makes a mistake by trying to value bet worse full houses but I'm not calling any worse, especially with a player left to act behind and given that AQ/AJ seem to make up a big chunk of our range

Yeah but it's actually not quite that simple. Because is Mitch ever value jamming worse than AJ in this hand? Do you really think a good player (or Mitch) is value jamming KK, QQ, JJ, a straight or an Ax hand, expecting to be good more than half the time when called? He may be doing so of course, but it is certainly not quite as simple as just "oh we have a really good hand, and it is versus Mitch... I call". Obviously he may well be bluffing too - unless he has changed his game recently, Mitch has a penchant for trying to rep very narrow ranges.

I haven't looked at this in detail, but I think this is a very close spot (hence why Alex posted it). I'm probably calling here because I have seen Mitch do silly things at times, trying to rep narrow ranges when bluffing in particular. However, I'd be calling expecting to lose more often than I won... but still hoping to win a little over 40% of the time.

Of course, given that it is a close spot, it does not really matter too much what hero does either way. That's the thing with close spots.

Oh... and I made a HUGE mistake in my response to Adam. Which is extremely embarrassing lol. I blame the fact that I have two screaming kids in the room with me at the moment which automatically lowers my IQ/concentration levels by about 50%

Not going to edit my post because I deserve to be humiliated :)

Can anyone (other than Keys, who obviously will spot it instantly and lol at me) spot the mistake? It is glaring!

Bet/(bet+bet+pot)
1200/(1200+1200+782)= 0.3771

Not the 1- thing?

Yep that is right Adam.

Don't know wtf I was thinking tbh  ;ashamed;

Could be worse, Keys wrote I keep doing it wrong.

This appears to be a really easy call unless i'm missing something - don't even have to work out any %'s.

Yeah but if this is the case it is only because you don't have much respect for Mitch ;)

Yeah i call also. Mitch doesnt put us on AK or AQ as he thinks we would re-raise pre. So hes trying to make us fold a hand he doesnt beat.

Call and wait for him to muck *fingers crossed*

Its actually the opposite (hope he doesn't read this) its cos he is capable of bluffing/value betting thin here that makes it a much easier call.  If it was versus some a bad/tight player who is not capable of value betting worse or doing a bluff for a lot of monies then you have more of a fold on your hands.

Literally never folding.


Like ever.

If, while I was putting in my chips but before they crossed the line, he exposed AK accidentally, I still call.

Thing with Mitch, he could be turning KK into a bluff :D

If we think he is so aggressive should we not turn our hand face up and let him bluff us? Can rep a straight too and bet 1/5 pot he may even raise wrae for value and we get called a lot vs kurt/ he could bluff too.

I am no cash game player, but my view is Mitch has a full house, over shoved to induce a 10 in to call, the villian, thinking there is a split on, but he will scoop. Question for me then is has he got AQ, AK for you not to be good here?

Could easily have JJ, QQ, KK. No idea how Mitch plays, or much prolonged experience of cash games. Just think as played he has a full house and deffo not air. Just have to work out the line as to what full house is most likely and whether you are good or not.

My gut says AK or maybe KK, I think he bets AJ, AQ, JJ, QQ on the flop much harder for protection than he would AK/KK, in fear of K10 or the two pair as it is a wet board.

He sees the turn and thinks ah nice i have two paired/set up but someone has ought to have a 10

Then amazing river and he shoves for value imo. So i think he has KK or AK. I think AK though if i had to be swayed. Don't think he would get as fruity with KK full, but again I am a cash game newb. And is Mitch alright with people deciphering his game like this? Happily take this down if not.

The more people who instantly say 'deffo a bluff' when i shove for 1.4x pot (600bbs) into 2 players on the river of a 4 to a straight, paired up board, the better!

Mitch has KK?

I'm calling, anyway.

Nothing personal, Mitch.

We appear to have a very big hand. It is so big it beats some of the hands you could legitimately be making a value bet on the end with.

This might well be why I'm rubbish.

Yeh yeh this is just so u can carry on bluffing us and finishing 19th In tourneys. Nice try

Unrelated to the hand but "meat in the sandwich" is one of my favourite phrases.

Oh, and call. If he's got it, he's got it. But as a self-respecting, check-shirt and Hackett troos-wearing, pigeon I'm not folding here. Couldn't look myself in the eye (in the mirror, as opposed to in a cross-eyed fashion) if I folded.

Sigh call, then he flips over the ladies :(

#Coollerments

Aces Full>>Queens Full

Yes we beat KK and QQ. Never shoves these for value btw.

Only lose to AK and AQ.

Mitch's range has AK, and you and Kurt rarely do, everyone's range has all sorts of blockers/2p's and straights in it, Mitch has more AQ than you two as well, neither of you have KK, QQ prolly not JJ so it's really just AJ and AQ he's worried about running into and the run out allows him to rep all the boats very legitimately. I really think you need to just take your medicine here and pay the man.

This isn't to say Mitch is always bluffing, or that he is bluffing here, he has the two big Value hands in his range for sure, as well as some bluffs, it's very rare a gd player will give you a "obvious call/fold" spot but here it just so happens you have abt the top of your range so I think this is the time to call.

His lights 3betting range will include a fair few small suited aces, obviously the most ideal hands to bluff with but i'm sure if he REALLY needs to bluff with those.

Cool hand though.

Out of interest if we're in Mitch' spot what are we doing with KK QQ and JJ OTR if we played it the same?

say what you want fishball. Any pot you go past a turn you shove river for 20x pot so gtfo

Isn't the suggestion that Alex might fold AJ in this spot justification enough that a bluff is a possibility here?

if Mitch has the nuts, what does he think either of you are calling with here?

Is betting so large a common part of bigger games? I've rarely seen more than 1.5x pot ever live and the only times have been from very competent villains.

Overbets are awesome. Even sometimes when your range is ridiculously strong and his is ridiculously weak, some players think 'well his huge bet clearly doesn't want a call, i'm gonna look like such a hero' 'oh fu** i forgot that when i'm wrong i'm gonna look like a huge mark'.

Because of the odds you're laying, a much higher % of your overbets have to be for value (and with a more nutted range, as you don't want to valuecut yourself) than as bluffs compared to a normal-sized bet. I find it's a good tactic against 'thinking' players who like to splash around and play a little fps but aren't as good as they think they are. Also good when it's difficult (from combinatorics, action etc) for you to have the hand you're repping.

In this spot there's no way I even consider folding, but I snapfold the hand one rung down - a straight (as someone pointed out we don't have JJ-KK very often).

Wtf happened?

A) hero snapcalled thinking 'lol who folds aces full' and then got berated for not being able to fold to an expert bluff
B) hero tankcalled all the while saying 'sooooo sick! i can't believe i'm thinking about laying this down' just to cover his ass in case he was behind, which he actually was, so he looked like a genius as his monies were getting shipped over to mitch
C) hero instafolded and held onto his cards while kurt folded as well, showed his cards while mitch looked at him thinking 'omg, i just got mugged, how do you fold that'
D) hero tankfolded, held onto his cards while kurt folded, showed his cards, mitch looks shocked and says 'wow, good fold, i had it' and turns over K4s, having misread his hand, thinking he had AKs
E) Hand did not happen, hero dreamt it

A) 2-1F
B) 3-1
C) 17-2
D) 35-1
E) 100-1

Seems like a great spot to jam  Aspades Tc.

If he has AK/AQ, nh imo.

I think honestly, because of whom villain is, and all the previous dynamic, OP can't have made a bad decision, whichever decision was chosen upon. A really, really disgusting spot.

Lock me up 10% wazz when you get to 300 posts

 :D

Haha so transparent!  ;D

:D

any results on hand btw?

Oh sigh, I thought you just wanted to be part of the Blonde community because you really like it and want to make a positive contribution.

To be fair, at least Wazz is making an effort with his posts rather than just making silly ones like some guys do to get to 300 posts.

That as well!

I read the first page or 2 but its got ridic, we start the hand with less than 200bb, we enter a 3 way pot against someone who could well be light and the pot swells on the flop, we find ourselves on the river with Aces full, why are we on page 4?

Surely we should use our reads here.


It's mitch on a double straddle, he has AA. I suggest we check and see if WE actually have AJ. we prob have Jx and misread our hand.

Wazz, can I get max bet on scenario 'E' at 100-1.

Thanks.