blonde poker forum

SO, we are in the ISPT with a stack of about 220-250k at 600/1200. We pick up the  Ks Kc. We make it 2500, from the hijack, and get three calls from the btn, the SB and the BB.
 
Flop comes  Qh 7h 4d. We c-bet to 4800, at get a call from the btn and a fold from both blinds.

We turn literally the gayest card in the deck, the  Kh. We bet 7200, which I kinda don't like, and get raised to 20k. Guy has about 50k behind. We flat, which again I'm not entirely sure I like, almost certainly prefer a check call here over a bet call, although I don't totally hate it, I don't want to see a 4th heart and all that. Anyway...

River is the  3s, and we check to the villain, he shoves his remaining stack, which amounts to a little less than 50k. Pot now is 59600 (+antes). Guy is a very standard satellite entry player, played pretty tight over the few hours of experience we have with him, has yet to show down a bluff or even a steal attempt. Thoughts on play? Call or fold river, and our turn play?

Going to sound very unlike me and say fold turn ideally as he's never bluffing and hasn't got enough for us to house up... but we all know we're not folding in game.

But would like to fold river I guess....
Seems frustrating but don't expect him to go off on one as described with just two purrs....

Kh is definitely not the greatest turn, one of the worst actually.

Ask him if he can beat a straight. See what happens. We are folding surely? If he has KQ somehow then tell everyone you had aces.

Pretty trivial fold.

Please explains this for me :)

Yea, seems like a pretty puke but std fold! :(

The  Kh makes our hand worse not better on the turn. Happy to check the turn and hope he only bets once so i can call. If we dont bet the turn and he keeps his sizeing small enough we can call. Obviously he does not always have a flush but the way the betting has gone now i would say im 95% certain he has a flush.

Vs his stack size I'm not betting the turn. Give yourself a cheaper chance to house up on the river.

Check call turn.  Eval river.

whats his peeling range on the button?  Kh Qh both out there

so we lose basically to JThh and his suited Ah combos (but he has no need to raise these on turn)

its a call for me

id bet that hed raise turn with axhh i think?

just did the numbers as I made a tired assumption last night.

We do in fact have exactky the right odds if we stack him every time.

14k to win 47+ 50 on a pairup = 7-1
10 outs x 1 = 5-1
Call and cf non pairups and we make money if my just woken up maths is correct??

This is the street I have trouble with. Villain has position so he can only call or re-raise the turn. If he's made his flush, why re-raise? He's turning his hand face up.

Maybe, but you are still temped to call both streets? 

Player dependent for me. Against an active player this looks like a semi bluff with a draw, maybe to the nut flush leaving a river pot sized bet for either an air ball bluff or value shove. Against this villain, as described, I fold the turn because I think he has it and effective stack's not deep enough to boat mine.

We have shown a tonnn of strength in the hand, for villain trying to get stacks in > slowplaying the nuts

im not saying he never does it, obv player dependant, but the certainly doesnt do it 100% of the time either

Don't think I'd be over complicating this against a random live player.

He can have loads of hands that we beat including lot's of 2 pairs that he thinks he's shoving for value.

Obviously it's a bit of a sigh call but it's still a pretty quick one for me.

This is a live comp with lots of satellite qualifiers. He probably doesn't know that we've shown a tonnn of strength.

All he sees is that someone's just barreled a turn card.

He won't have assigned us a range. He won't care that we're showing strength on what is now a dangerous board.

All he sees is that he's got a set or 2 pair or a flush and that he thinks he's winning.

We beat enough of those hands he might have to flick in a call.

just like to say to pleno1, that matt said the GAYEST turn, not the greatest card, just making sure you understand what he was saying before having a go!

Its a combination of posting off an iphone all the time and little man syndrome, he sounds a bit snappy but wouldnt hurt a fly.

Sorry, is turning a set of kings the greatest or the gayest?

In this situation its the gayest because it was the Kh that popped off

A set of kings is an absolute sausage-fest of a hand.

Make a boat next time. Makes things easier :)

Without a doubt the best piece of advice I've ever received.

id like to say villain could even be playing 56 guys.

the turn is a great card to bluff raise you with IP, for obv reasons.

very much presume a 'standard' satellite player plays a lot of mid range connectors to a min raise on BTN.

im always folding on the river, always raising more pre

Not quite sure where everyone is here, but I don't agree with much that's been posted. Just because the guy hasn't shown a bluff or a steal doesn't mean he hasn't bluffed or stolen; he could be very clever using his image and picking up great spots. The idea that he's 100% on a flush and we should therefore fold the turn is absurd - to get close to that strength of read we'd need to have played with the guy for a lot more than the 'few hours of experience' we have with him.

I've played with a lot of tight guys that spazz at random every few hours, using their tightness to justify it. 'He had to fold.... I haven't shown a bluff all day!'. Basically we have far too much equity on the turn when he's turning pairs into semibluffs. We would need to play rivers particularly badly, paying off when behind, folding when ahead, and not getting paid when we hit to make the turn a fold.

We should definitely be barrelling the turn as well, sizing is good. Check would be good if we think he's gonna barrel turn and river with worse after floating the flop, but we don't have reason to think so and we still have a good enough hand to get some value when hands with equity are going to call a turn barrel. If he's flatting the flop with a set we need to get value before the river and misrepresent our hand - if the board pairs after we lead the turn, he's going to jam over our river bet with his house whereas if we check turn and he bets small, we may not be able to get all-in on the river.

When he puts that much money in on the river I think we can go ahead and fold.

Agree with all of this, Id call and expect to see a lower set more often than a flush.