blonde poker forum

What do we do in this hand with the following?

1.  Ahrt 7h
2.  Js Ts
3.  8c 9c
4.  Jh Js
5.  Ac Kc



Btn opens (readless), we're in the BB with one of the above.  

BTN $1.50, SB call, BB call

FLOP
 Jd 7c 7s

check, check, BTN $9, fold, call

TURN
 9d

check, check

RIVER
 2s

we???


and why?


Sorry, stacks are $60 effective pre, he covers me slightly (120bbs)

We move this to Plenos collection of pointless hands threads?

I mean all 5 look incredibly obvious to me, cant imagine how it requires more than 2 seconds thought.

because something interesting happens.....

that's why.

sorry to be a pain or a waste of time.

You bet he raises. Come on, i mean surely you know what to do with all 5? If number 5 ever exists!

I mean surely if you are betting you know what you are doing if raised etc, and if checking you know what you are doing

Too many ridiculously basic threads, Pads way more to blame than you. The other day we had 3 threads in 5 mins, my 15 month little boy laughed and said "Daddy he must bet to one of them"

Number 3 & the turn card both have the 9d

close...

we bet 35 and he jams.... (for an under-raise)
35 to 59.65 - we have 15.89 behind.




now?


(and no, no5 doesn't exist - that JB went a while ago)

lol ty, changed

Just so people realise (the new thing on the forum is noone bothers to look at stacks or pot size and then claims it in defence of some terrible line advocated)

Preflop the pot is $4.50
He bets $9 into $4.50
On the turn the pot is $22.50
On the river you bet $35 into $22.50 and he shoves for $49.50 total effective

You have to call $14.50 into $107 so need to be right 13.5% of the time. And there is a thread asking what to do with JJ here?

Basically its simple maths, you add the % time he shoves worse than your hand for value, the % of time he is bluffing with a worse hand than ours. If these 2 numbers total higher than 13.5% you click call, if they dont you click fold.

Didnt mean it to come across rude, but I know you KNOW all this!

clearly JJ isn't a problem.. the only question is could/ should I have done something different at a different point in the hand?
Dave, sorry to seem trivial but I get myself tied up in knots and in the interest of trying to focus on being so much more fundamentally stronger I'm trying to look closely at the big pots I play, and also to look at the structure/ small but common things I do in pots often.

I have been experimenting with overbets in certain spots this week and so far find many people at 50nl seem extra 'tight' to them.

In this particular hand, the only two cards I thought he would play like this for value would be 7h 7d.  And that's only the one combo.
So clearly we don't have to be right often if he doesn't just have that hand.

Sure, sorry to ask an obviously simple question.

I guess slightly better question would be - do we think the guy is ever bluffing here? why?
And ofc what would people consider his 'value' range otr?
(this is something I seem to consistently come out with different answers to... in comparison to my 'poker friends')

I have no idea what you want me to say?

You appear to be asking is there anything different you can do other than check calling 2x pot on J77 flop with JTss 89ss Akss and betting 1.5x the river on a 9x3x runout?

In answer yes. There is a lot of different things you can do

Is this an online version of "what Lodden thinks"?

Over under on how many posts for dumbest hand ever or number of posts till gouty doesn't understand any of it and pipes up?

He is bluffing somewhere between 0% and 100% of the time. If you are readless then can only go on what you know, ie stakes, location, population tendancies of both of those and add into the fact he has taken a non orthodox line of betting 2x pot. Then you derive a figure. Add this figure to the % of times your hand beats his value shoving range that you beat, ie when we have JJ we beat some hands, he doesnt just have 77. If its higher than 13.5% then call, if its not fold. It really isnt hard.

he bet 2x pot otf??

folding 2 3 and 5?

squeeze jj and ak pre obv.

ill just go bore neverscaredb over at 2p2 in future haha, sorry just playing less tables and thinking about closeish spots that i dont wanna put down to std, didnt realise ppl got annoyed at it etc.

obviously.. but with that range of my hands, we have two pretty nutted ones, one that can 'turn' a lot of equity and a medium strength hand that should be able to be 'good' a lot on this board....


That part isn't hard if i were good at constructing ranges with which to work out the following...
Clearly we should be able to be 'good' here with the A7/ JJ more than enough to be ahead and quickly press call.

What I was struggling with is working out the JT/ 89 river calls.

I started by giving him a flop range of
AJ, QQ+, all 7x, T8, T9, 22-66, a couple of complete airballs and a couple of Ax bkdrfd hands.


Develop this on the turn by dropping out some of the overpairs as I don't think he would check them back 100%.
Then take out some of the T8 as he surely would bet some on the turn
Take out a couple of the small pair combos - he tried once to 'buy it' and that didn't work


And on the river take out all the 1p hands as he would either call or fold imo

which leaves a river range of 7x, some T8, some T9, and an unidentifiable amount of complete bricked air... potentially even Ax/ Kxdd hands because of the turn check back (didn't want to get blown off his hand)


Make sense?

We have either  8c 9c or  Ts Js.

How different are they?

wtf u think he ebts 2x pot with 22?

i think its tough to have a value range on this board... and that some people will mash the bet button with the weak pairs because they don't know what to do with it.

(notice in this thread i said I struggle with coming up with 'good' ranges in these spots)

All i do know is its tough to have a good hand you want to be $9 with and want to get called here.


We can see a lot of turns that help us out, was willing to re-evaluate.

Sorry for the lack of quality in this post but I woke up to tell you i think this is your greatest.

huh?

I said I struggle to come up with ranges in these kinda spots...

Can you tell me what you think he has when he bets 2x pot on J77?

we never have AK or JJ cos we always squeeze them PF and PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE dont tell me we dont cos we just do!

I think shoving is better than overbetting with all those hand as I don't see how we can fold any of them to a jam, except 89 possibly, but i assume we're bluffing with 89 when we  overbet the river?

I think just chk/folding 89 (calling from time to time if you wanna be a huge sherrif) value betting JT and A7 regularly is a better play than overbetting I dont think this is a gd spot to overbet, given how weak his range is.

JT and 89 ARE slightly different as i think he could be bluffing with a better 9 some % of the time, he can't call this bet with a 9.

This is the key part..

I would have put these two hands as the same/ similar, but in this hand they turn out to have a slight gulf between them.


When I bet and he shoved I lol'd and went back over the hand, I couldn't come up with anything that he has for value now that he checks turn with a reasonable %.
So, I quite quickly and happily called.

I was shown the 8c and the 2c.


But what I wanted to work out and apparently phrased it incorrectly was trying to work out a real range for someone to have here.
Obv his exact hand is in the 'air' part that I expected him to have... he actually has two pairs in the end.


But I just felt that the flop bet + this river action = JB style overthinking.

no?

You've made this hand massively more complicated than in should be. When he bets 2x pot on flop, surely we are not calling 9 with 49.50 remaining for a gutty with  8c 9c. So if we have  Ts Js whats our plan if we flick in 18 bb's and then villian bets turn? You can easily be drawing nearly dead already on the flop, if a fish takes a crazy line it doesn't auto mean its a bluff he can have. Playing 50nl Zoom for me this would just be a snap fold on the flop unless we have  Ahrt 7h or  Jc Js. Albeit your instinct was correct on this occasion I just think calling the flop bet with either hand in that spot is going to be -EV in the long run. There shouldn't be too much I thought he thought I thought he thought going on at 50nl. Keep it simple.

I agree with this.

I have seen some more 'regular' instances of big bets/ overbets with nutted hands in spots I wouldn't expect, however I have not as yet... ever seen someone do this otf with a value hand at 300k hands <50nl.

Normally people do things like:
- 3bt or 4bt shove 100bb's+ with AA
- call pre, cc, cc, donkshove for 4x pot on flushing river with nut flush
- min reraise preflop then bet pot+ on xxx with AA/ KK

So in this hand the flop decision is a frustrating one.... I don't 'lose' much by just folding flop, and I know that this is a really marginal hand... I 'happened' to be correct this time.  I don't know how often I would be correct in this spot in the future, but I also really have stopped most of my hero-ing and fps thinking at 50nl so far.

I've only attempted one big bluff in 10k hands so far - tried to bluff someone off AA/ KK with 5 cards that were all between 6 and a J on the board....
[ ] He folded.
LOL