blonde poker forum

300euro freezeout, starting stack 20k, we are down to 11k, blinds 200/400, 6max.

We open AJo mp to 800, CO flats, btn squeezes 2200. Folds to us. We have 29bbs total. Villain is 27/19/13 over 133 hands. No history. CO is unknown.

 ;all-in; ???

Yep.

You certainly don't have to, even AQ you don't have to, but you should a certain % of the time.

If you have a folding range this shouldn't be in it... Eye balllll

Ofc have a folding range. Loads of hands actually, hence its a good 3bet spot for him because I have to shove or fold yet am still opening reasonably wide, plenty of suited connectors, QJo, KTo etc.

This probably goes in Dubais list of pointless PHA threads :$

13% 3b over 140

Firstly I don't consider 140 hands to be much of a sample for 3bet sizes, and secondly, it's 6max, so that isnt even that high.

Don't think it's a pointless thread, though agree it may be trivial and everybody may jam.

Is most obv squeeze spot too, 140 hands is relevant otherwise may have not posted the statistics in first place

Sizings of his other 3bs and squeeze sizes would help you out here if you could remember any but still a jam nearly always

Any other relevant stacks behind him? May change decision slightly

HEM has his 3bet stat has 12.9 (70) which means he's had 70 opportunities to 3bet, and done so 9 times. There's others on here with far more experience with HEM stats than I, but I'm pretty sure they'll say this is close to insignificant.

Don't use them if you're going to dismiss them in future then, a 140 hand sample is still an indication. And is different to someone with a 0% or 20% 3 bet over 140.

HUD stats can be misleading as most peoples set ups include FR 200bb pre ante, post ante, 6 max, bubbles, final tables, turbos etc.

Best used for spotting gaps in VPIp and PFR to locate fish when mass tabling MTTs in midstakes as every situation is so different compared to a 100-200bb cash game.


In this instance though it does look to be useful combined with the spot he was presented with, NH if you did put it in his eye

Yeh I did and he used his full time bank and called with AQ. Stats can be deceiving eh? ;)

This is closer than everyone thinks imo. Think stats can be deceiving here, and I'd try and include some sort of gameflow read if I was playing few enough tables to keep up, if not I'd probably pile but pretty sure people just mash the all-in button without thinking far too readily in these spots.

yah, that was my point ^^

interesting that stato thinks closer than everyone thinks -- may well be right -- I have a 'fold and don't tell anyone' range, and whilst AJ isn't in it, maybe it should be. in this specific instance, since it looked like he nearly folded (full tb?) AQ then I think our jam is fine, for different reasons. #resultsorientated :D

Easy shove.

I agree with this.  The stats CAN mean little here. The fact it is an obvious spot to squeeze, however, is very significant, there are plenty of regs who will never be light here as a result of this, and then there are others who just don't care (jwprodigy and norab23 top this list), this and how they perceive you are way more important than his 3b stat after 140 hands imo.