blonde poker forum

150 freezeout at star city.

Blinds, 400/800, no ante.

This hand isn't played by me, buts lets pretend it is.

We are unknown to the table, haven't shown any bluffs, and we won a big pot aq v kq on q44xx board, to get our current stack. Tho, we are not sure the table have noticed we haven't bluffed etc.

We raise to 2100 utg with AQ, two callers, Asian guy about 50, and the BB.

Flop Ad 6s 8d.

BB checks, we bet 4100, Asian guy makes it 11100, bb folds. We?

We have 44k at the start of the hand, we cover by 3k or so.

What's the best way to proceed?

There are 18 or so left, will 6 getting paid.

Pretty legit tough spot without any reads. Not too sure but I'm thinking fold/tell no-one with the information we have. It would suck if he's button clicking with worse ace and we end up folding the best hand.

would say fold. Have to wonder what he could be getting so confident with here that you beat, seems way out of line for an AJ where I imagine he calls. Seems more in line with 910 suited diamonds or a set 6's or 8's.

Comes down to how he plays his Ax hands:

Assuming he plays all his strong hands like this - A8,68,A6,66,88 - and all his good semibluffing hands - 6d7d,6d5d,7d9d,9dtd,kdqd - and no Ax hands, we have 24%, where we need I believe 39% to get it in. If we add in AK,AQ,AJ we have 35%. We only need to add in AT before we get to 40% and enough equity to get it in.

However, if he doesn't play AJ and AT like this, it's unlikely he's playing many of his strong semibluffing hands like this (if any at all) and his range is superstrong - there are some guys here against which we could say with 80%+ certainty they have 2p or better. Then again, if he plays any of his Ax like this, it's likely he plays most of it like this and we're actually more like 50-60% against his range.

I probably fold.

depends whether its Ali Mallu or not

Not folding. Ton of draws, possibility of worse Ax to 'see where he's at' and the additional likelihood of a local player making a random move at a random time. I mean we can even get it in against worse Ax against a recreational player, people don't fold top pair live especially on a drawy board.

we got qd?

He won't be behind for long if it is.

Nah, no diamonds.

as said before its difficult to know without seeing the players and possibly making judgments that way.

if im the asian guy im expecting you to bet once the flop has come down...but im only raising you with a set or 2pair against most people, if i dont believe you have a ace (i.e i have a-10,a-9 and im worried about kicker) and your just c-betting then id just call because i expected this to happen,continuation. then you shutdown on the turn.
what do i do in your spot, personally i fold or make the bet less on the flop and saved 2k, you could get info with smaller bet if hes flushing then just dodge a diamond but thats just my way. not sure if it made any sense as im multitasking ;)

i put asian guy on a-8 or a set, i give up my hand and stare at him or straight ask him 'what you have?'  ;madasahatstand;

Folding v quickly and not giving it much more thought tbh

Do you think the Asian guy being 50 has anything to do with the play?

check flop

I think I was at his table during 200/400 and I saw a hand play out almost like this where he limp called a raise pre and then raised got it in with A8o on A8x. Probably has 2p again but is also probably bad enough to raise with just 1p for reasons that he himself does not know.

I do.

In what way?

more gambly, hence not foldy. stereotypes ftw

Random live player sees a fd and raises any ace to protect his hand imo. Must be great to get to 50 and have it auto accepted you have the nuts when you raise. If we are even folding AQ pretty terrible value raise by the old man.