blonde poker forum

I'm indebted to MereNovice for spotting this, but Betfair have a market up on "WSOP 2013 Main Event Winner".

http://www.betfair.com/exchange/poker/market?id=1.109030835


I'm not so hot at navigating Befair, but he tells me that the following bets HAVE BEEN PLACED.


James Dempsey  £6 @ 349/1   
Keith Hawkins £5 @ 419/1
Neil Channing £6 @ 299/1
Rob Yong £6 @ 349/1
Rupert Elder £6 @ 349/1
Mike McDonald £6 @ 349/1


So, who placed those bets?

Terrific value though.

Note that Camel is the outsider of that select group.

Not guilty, M'Lud.

Ha.

I saw something on Ladbrokes twitter page that they are doing wsop markets too.

Correct.

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/poker


I think that is the definition of an over-round book.

They (Ladbrokes) do offer some other WSOP ME 2013 markets, though it's hard to spot much value.


(Total Entrants, age of winner, how many Americans at the Final Table, nationality of winner, female winner, etc.)

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/Poker/World-Series-of-Poker/2013-World-Series-of-Poker-Main-Event-N-1z0swb0Z1z0swb3Z1z0swav/

I know nothing of pricing, but there are some absolute comedy odds on BF. Im not going to get embroiled in a Timex "calling out" scandal, but worth 5 mins of anyone's time for a hearty chuckle

No one bet on tikay??

Trying for £5 on Anthony Kendall @ 320 later if anyone fancies matching? Pretty sure his insane hedge compensates for the 50% premium charge.

Is it just me that thinks 3-400/1 odds in an 8,000+ event seems a little tight

just a little

Julian Thew same adds as Darvin Moon, he will be delighted with that ;)

I can assure you that Keith has been laid at 400s too.

 ;angel;

Think you misunderstood.... they were all 400/1 to get laid....

If you're worried that the odds on Betfair are too generous, you can try here:

http://www.skybet.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/event/15327344

the sky bet odds are one of the funniest most inane things i've ever seen.


def testing a random number generator.


EAMES = WARNE baby



NICE BOWLING JOHN

Chris Ferguson! haha wp sky

mad marvin 400/1 thou

I reckon Sky would price the Dalai Lama up at about 500/1

Quite like the look of Steve Dannenman and Barry Shulman among the 250-1 shots. Anyone wanna lay me 16p, save me logging in?

looks like a monkey clicked some serious buttons to create that market.

just lay everyone and your sure to win!

:)

I made the following bets on Laddies

lichtenburger 750-1
Jaka 750-1
Seiver 750-1
Mizzi 750-1
Moorman 750-1
Katchalov 750-1
Shaun Deeb 750-1
Mohsin Charania 750-1
Shannon Shorr 1000-1
Justin Bonomo 1000-1

I will be passing on Jamie Gold at 125s on Skybet.

look very fair bets to me

If one of those players make it through to day 3 with average what would you expect their true odds be to win?

It's interesting because yeah there are 8000 people in the field. But I'd estimate at least half or probably more have no shot to win! Yes they could go really deep, but I'm not sure how they could ever close it out. Darvin Moon was something of an exception to this. As it is win only I mostly tried to pick guys who are likely run up a big stack or bust.

Some other good bets on Laddies, seems a reasonably fair market, at least compared to elsewhere. Wasicka at 1250-1. He used to be a top player but I'm not sure how much he plays these days?

well he leads event 24

http://uk.pokernews.com/live-reporting/2013-world-series-of-poker/event-24-1-500-no-limit-hold-em/

LOL at Blom 80/1. He'd get far too bored by day 2.

nah got sick respect for him now, pooooned the online 30 min level comp without the anticipated series of blow ups. kids got game. goooooo Isi

Obv needed to load up the chinese fund before he headed out to Vegas

Vanessa Selbst on Sky at 400/1- good bet imo.  She is underpriced compared to the rest on there.

That doesn't make it a good bet. Every bet posted in this thread are all horrendous value, some worse than others. Wasicka probably the least bad one

Didn't see all the ladbrokes ones. They are closest to true prices but still obviously too skinny

1000/1 Bonomo?

I'd have to have alot of money to compensate that tosser winning, but it isn't terrible.

Odds are just hillariously bad.  Even if you had a 300% expected ROI you would still be needing 2500/1 or so to be about even.  The mark up on 400/1 is just...... wow.

it's even funnier if you compare player quality at each of the odds levels.


SHANE WARNE = JOHN EAMES BABY ahahahah

Andras Koroknai - 100/1.
LOL Sky.

1 - Get quoted at lol odds by 'bookmaker'
2 - Start staking thread using lol odds as justification for selling at 7.0 ('Ladbrokes are pretty shrewd and that's what they say I'm worth')
3 - Profit

As good at poker as John Eames and shagging Liz Hurley - what a life Warney has.

Are these real odds or some kinda gimmick? Vaswani same price as Merson? Roland de Wolfe and Vanessa same price? This cant be real.

bookmakers have no  idea how to price up this market so go ultra tight on the book, only way to avoid some sharks spotting huge mistakes and printing them

In 3 years time I think Blow will be widely considered as the best all round player in the game

yeh but anyone whos read poker news once in the last 3 years could give relative prices that are more realistic than this utter guesswork.

was quite surprised by the ladbrokes odds tbf, they are going towards nearly vaguely acceptable!

I was pleased with the 99/1 Negreanu, 84/1 Blom and 89/1 Ivey that I got.  I was a bit disappointed I missed the early 19/1 on Blom.  Even though I missed the really early prices this time, I'd really struggle to name a better value betting opportunity each year.
 
Will leave it to someone else to do the in running. 

Cheers

on

Moorman
Brian Rast
Bonomo
Paul Wasicka
Johnny Lodden
Oliver Busquets

and probs some others I've forgotten. All at like 1000s

Glad to see the back of Merson, he was the last 4 figure loser.  Bets remaining

Annette Obrestad  330  £0.01   £3.29
Carlos Mortensen  270  £0.01   £2.69 
                          300  £3.03   £905.97
Yevgeniy Timoshenko  300  £0.60   £179.40 
                         350  £1.71   £596.79

Great value to be had every year if you get past level 1.   

Good Luck with Yevgeniy and Carlos Sir

Ladbrokes are out of line with their prices on the main event

Anton Morgenstern is chip leader.... hes on a massive  22 million chips and still 10 -1

http://sportsbeta.ladbrokes.com/poker

Chandlers are nearer the mark @9-2

http://www.oddschecker.com/poker/world-series-of-poker/winner

Agree, but max a tenner.  Doesn't surprise me.  I had a big position on Ivey and Negreanu, so thought I'd lay a bit off on Ivey at Ladbrokes 125/1 when he was building a big stack.  Think they limited me to 50p.  

If either Timo or Mortenson gets to the 9, I will probably just lay the other 7 or 8.  Am currently just above evens the field, so no need to panic yet.  Hopefully I won't wake up tomorrow with them both on 100k.  

Edit.  Just done a bit of maths, don't think 10/1 is that massive, probably close to fair, 9/2 is terrible.  Clearly wouldn't back Timoshenko at 9/1 either.

Boooom

? 

Oh  I see ...you layed Carlos & Timmy ?  Shit I was cheering them on for you

Alls well that ends well .....   :)

Just checked my account and found this :(

JC Tran  350  £1.57   £547.93 

Was cheering him on too ...

At least, they have freed up the cash from the rest.

get thereeee

Hes wanting JC Tran not to win as layed the bet not backed

 ;bigadz;

Aftertiming my losers, can't be so bad? 

haha wooops, lose JC lose!