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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: jgcblack on June 29, 2013, 04:24:05 PM



Title: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on June 29, 2013, 04:24:05 PM
http://wt.ag/14gUESE


UTG     HowIRollWIN       $31.54   126bb   
UTG+1 SuDDenDDeath    $75.61   302bb   
CO       Hero                  $69.90   280bb   
BTN     lisami258             $23.71   95bb   
SB       bigben6586         $10.75   43bb   
BB       Whizzle1             $70.88   284bb   

    Pre-Flop ($0.35, 6 players) Hero is CO

1 fold, SuDDenDDeath goes all-in $75.61, $69.9 to Hero ($69.9)?

???


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: SubZERO on June 29, 2013, 07:38:11 PM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: TL900 on June 29, 2013, 07:41:15 PM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

ye this lol 300bb brah


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on June 30, 2013, 12:21:45 AM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

not like hes doing this with AA very often...

ive seen it done for 100bbs randomly a few times... and tbh most of them (if not all) were on a friday and have been AK all the way down to 106o...

ever call here??


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: dakky on June 30, 2013, 02:34:29 AM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

not like hes doing this with AA very often...

ive seen it done for 100bbs randomly a few times... and tbh most of them (if not all) were on a friday and have been AK all the way down to 106o...

ever call here??


No; you have nothing to gain and everything to lose.

In cash games I have called 100bb and more 3 times at various stakes up to one memorable incident at 2/5 and been shown AA (I remember these three times specifically as I happened to have KK).

Still if he has any pair you are a dog, and chopping vs AKo and losing to AK sooted.

There is no money in the pot, why would you want to call 280bb to be chopping the blinds  at best most of the time?

If he has done it a few times or been totally mental in general then that would change things but you mentioned nothing about his style/image.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: cambridgealex on June 30, 2013, 05:02:35 AM
Call


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: SuuPRlim on July 01, 2013, 04:14:15 AM
you can "exploit" this guy buy calling AA and folding everything else here, if you wanna crush him for doing this.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: dakky on July 01, 2013, 05:05:47 AM
Call

why? plz expand


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: AlexMartin on July 01, 2013, 01:43:09 PM
cmon, give stats/what you have recently seen. this could be a supersnap or a fast fold.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on July 01, 2013, 05:06:38 PM
300 bb's mate!!! WTF?

Do u have a big fishy colour code on him??

Or perhaps could u have done something to him b4 that means he has a nice colour for u?


readless... no notes... never seen before... (normally means 'new' as I make a lot of notes)


Ive only called 100bb open shoves in the past when ive had a range of 10's+/ AK and so far only run into AA once out of 10-20 occurrences (that ive called).  Most have been A6o/ 105o hands where someone is showing their mates... "look at this... lol"

I even make notes when ive done something weird and someone has seen it, nothing in this instance.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: tikay on July 01, 2013, 05:22:32 PM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

not like hes doing this with AA very often...

ive seen it done for 100bbs randomly a few times... and tbh most of them (if not all) were on a friday and have been AK all the way down to 106o...

ever call here??


You have this "Friday night play is always very bad" fixation John. Do you have credible evidence to back that up?

I think it's pretty much an old wives tale.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: celtic on July 01, 2013, 05:25:07 PM
I'd agree that games on a fridayand Saturday are much better than during the week games.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: celtic on July 01, 2013, 05:26:37 PM
Ps, not just online, but live too.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on July 01, 2013, 05:29:56 PM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

not like hes doing this with AA very often...

ive seen it done for 100bbs randomly a few times... and tbh most of them (if not all) were on a friday and have been AK all the way down to 106o...

ever call here??


You have this "Friday night play is always very bad" fixation John. Do you have credible evidence to back that up?

I think it's pretty much an old wives tale.

the player pool on zoom at 10nl and 25nl averages 315-450 most nights....iirc
fridays seem to average 600+.


I obviously have the same gamblers style memory as everyone else but im sure the biggest pots, strangest things and games run longest always on a friday.

Ive got a few cash game professional friends in poker and all of them, independent of one another have told me how they rate games on a friday over any other day, pleno1 included.

could be an interesting discussion to ask people on here with hand tracking information to do a couple of quick filters to look at play/day; results/session/day; potsize/day type things.....

ive only got 400k hands to look at but some people will have millions.

.... fair point tho TK.  Oh and congrats on Vegas sir, I hear you're having a fun and successful time.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: tikay on July 01, 2013, 05:35:53 PM
not much of a headscratcher imo, just fold

not like hes doing this with AA very often...

ive seen it done for 100bbs randomly a few times... and tbh most of them (if not all) were on a friday and have been AK all the way down to 106o...

ever call here??


You have this "Friday night play is always very bad" fixation John. Do you have credible evidence to back that up?

I think it's pretty much an old wives tale.

the player pool on zoom at 10nl and 25nl averages 315-450 most nights....iirc
fridays seem to average 600+.


I obviously have the same gamblers style memory as everyone else but im sure the biggest pots, strangest things and games run longest always on a friday.

Ive got a few cash game professional friends in poker and all of them, independent of one another have told me how they rate games on a friday over any other day, pleno1 included.

could be an interesting discussion to ask people on here with hand tracking information to do a couple of quick filters to look at play/day; results/session/day; potsize/day type things.....

ive only got 400k hands to look at but some people will have millions.

.... fair point tho TK.  Oh and congrats on Vegas sir, I hear you're having a fun and successful time.


I just think you should clear your head of all this Fridays/Frenchies/this & that are soft stuff, & just get back to basics. If there IS a difference, it is so marginal as to be inconsequental. IMO, of course.

Thanks for the congrats, yes, am having a fun time, and winning. Thrilled to bits for my backers, more than anything.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on July 01, 2013, 05:55:17 PM
Its not like I do too much different
"Because he is from france"
"Because its friday"
"Because he has a man utd badge"

However, there are certain things, combinations of things that might help me lean one way or other in a certain spot.

And when a big decision is close imo I try to lean toward a fold these days because folding and not knowing affects my mentality and overall game much less than either
- being right and still losing.
- being completely wrong and giving away a buyin.

BUT... on a friday, because of what I've seen, done and experienced I would definitely agree that where I might normally fold:call a close decision with a ration of 70:30 it probably starts to swerve a little the other way to make it more 40:60.

Both biggest winning and losing days have been on a friday... I would say I 'think' that people are prepared to play bigger pots on a friday evening... esp compared to say, wed lunchtime....


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: tikay on July 01, 2013, 06:19:50 PM
Its not like I do too much different
"Because he is from france"
"Because its friday"
"Because he has a man utd badge"

However, there are certain things, combinations of things that might help me lean one way or other in a certain spot.

And when a big decision is close imo I try to lean toward a fold these days because folding and not knowing affects my mentality and overall game much less than either
- being right and still losing.
- being completely wrong and giving away a buyin.

BUT... on a friday, because of what I've seen, done and experienced I would definitely agree that where I might normally fold:call a close decision with a ration of 70:30 it probably starts to swerve a little the other way to make it more 40:60.

Both biggest winning and losing days have been on a friday... I would say I 'think' that people are prepared to play bigger pots on a friday evening... esp compared to say, wed lunchtime....


Way too complicated......


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: celtic on July 01, 2013, 06:30:07 PM
More drunks and randoms play Friday and Saturday.

Same with the end of the month, the games seem better after the recs have been paid and want to spend some time playing cards.

Just my experience.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: tikay on July 01, 2013, 06:45:21 PM
More drunks and randoms play Friday and Saturday.

Same with the end of the month, the games seem better after the recs have been paid and want to spend some time playing cards.Just my experience.

This is factully true, & can easily be proven.

However, I would contend that the ability difference between a Friday, and, say, a Saturday, is so negligible at the recreational level as to make no difference.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: kinboshi on July 01, 2013, 06:51:57 PM
I'd agree that games on a fridayand Saturday are much better than during the week games.

You play mostly at weekends, yeah?


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: pleno1 on July 01, 2013, 07:07:38 PM
Being a Friday is a reason to play not,a reason to call.
Or if your evil pie a reason not to play


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: NoCardDSC on July 02, 2013, 12:00:02 PM
Pretty easy fold here mate, tooooo many BB's.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on July 02, 2013, 06:49:23 PM
Pretty easy fold here mate, tooooo many BB's.

How often do you get a chance to get in AK vs a range we likely are 60/40 most of the time and occasionally dominate.
We're rarely dominated and even if we put AKo vs random we're 65/35 but I think that's probably a little optimistic.


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: TL900 on July 02, 2013, 07:13:12 PM
even if we put AKo vs random we're 65/35 but I think that's probably a little optimistic.

lol to say the least. Disagree were "never" dominated too. I would say were never dominatING


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: cambridgealex on July 02, 2013, 07:17:05 PM
even if we put AKo vs random we're 65/35 but I think that's probably a little optimistic.

lol to say the least. Disagree were "never" dominated too. I would say were never dominatING

I wouldn't. Agree with JB!

Though they do have AA/KK here a non-zero %


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: TL900 on July 02, 2013, 07:21:17 PM
even if we put AKo vs random we're 65/35 but I think that's probably a little optimistic.

lol to say the least. Disagree were "never" dominated too. I would say were never dominatING

I wouldn't. Agree with JB!

Though they do have AA/KK here a non-zero %

 ;ifm;


Title: Re: No idea....
Post by: jgcblack on July 02, 2013, 08:36:20 PM
Pretty easy fold here mate, tooooo many BB's.

How often do you get a chance to get in AK vs a range we likely are 60/40 most of the time and occasionally dominate.
We're rarely dominated and even if we put AKo vs random we're 65/35 but I think that's probably a little optimistic.


note the bold.


I have played a lot of hands at small stakes and from my experience I have found
62/345000


I have called with AKx4 and A8ddx1 (no idea why), I've folded 1x AKo, 1x77 and 1x55 and all the rest of the junk.
I'll have a closer look later at the days and see if there is any particular pattern.


However with the following hands I had the following equity preflop:
Aspades Kc - 44.8%
Ad 8d - 29.4                (vs K10dd OR for 100bb and QQ behind for 30bb)
Ac Qh - 68.8
Aspades Ks - 67.6
Ahrt Kc - 74.0


Of the hands I didn't call but saw the showdown -
Qd Td
9d 9h
Ad Qc
2c 7h     (he posts UTG then open shoves)



So I'm afraid the numbers suggest that actually AK not only becomes a call, but a pretty happy one.
Didn't take me long, how about someone else looks at the their database.....?
- Add filter 'hero facing 1 raise'
- Add filter 'raise size is greater than 90bbs'

However I would happily agree that if we have either raised or there was a raise and someone 3bt shoves 100bb+ then I would be much more comfortable folding.