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Title: Tricky spot or easy fold? Post by: Leighton on June 30, 2013, 04:34:20 AM Live £1/£1 at Manchester 235 and pretty sure this is an easy fold but just want to get opinions..
Villain is a poor LAG who's limped pre 90% of hands up to now, a lot of his limp-call pre range is K5o etc and most hands he's won without showdown, he's shown top pair/top 2 etc, doesn't seem to run crazy bluffs. We straddle, 4 callers and we check with 56o, villain is in the small blind. Flop is 5s 6d Ts villain checks and we lead for £7 into £10, 3 callers including villain. Turn Jd and we lead for £25, two mid positions fold and villain calls. River 3d - villain jams £244 into £90 pot. (we cover) Does he ever have diamonds here, like Ad Td? Does he have 24? Or has he missed a spade draw? Can we ever call and win? Title: Re: Tricky spot or easy fold? Post by: Honeybadger on June 30, 2013, 07:02:01 PM This is a really clear fold.
You only need to call with ~27% of your range to prevent villain profitably bluffing. 65 is nowhere near the top 27% of your range, considering you have bet twice into the field in a multiway pot. That's the theory... but in practice you should tend to fold more than 63% of your river range, because villain is very unlikely to be bluffing enough. Which means making exploitative 'tight folds' is likely to be best. Title: Re: Tricky spot or easy fold? Post by: Ironside on June 30, 2013, 07:42:52 PM 74o 74dd and JT are much more likely that 24 as discribed he could have alot of 2 pair hands and back door flush draws too
i think its an easy fold catch him when you have a stronger hand |