blonde poker forum

This is actually before hand 1 chronologically but I thought of this one after.

Open JJ UTG+1 to 250 at 50/100

Aggro looking young guy (turns out to be dead aggro during the day but this was his first 3 bet) raises to 625, I call.

Flop:
 846r

I check call 800.

Turn:
7

Check, check.

River K

I check he bets 2200

Thoughts?

I bet/fold the turn.

As played I fold river, assuming you both have around 10k starting stack?

Starting stack is 30k

I think this one is all on feel. The bet is small enough not to put either of your tournaments in jeopardy, so he could be spazzing with a lot of picture card combos, that have missed. I like the call tbh with you as you seem to have given up in his eyes after the four to the straight has come out, and you haven't even bet out on the river, so he can assume you don't particularly like the K, ie it hasn't paired you up.

I call river. 2200 into around a 3k pot. I think he bets the K for far less, or even checks it behind. He may have played a set like this, or weird combos including the 5. Just think this is a bet looking to get you off.

sodit, 5975 and make the fker squirm.

I call

Pre see,s not great?  Going at least 350?  Seen a lot f guys opening to 2.5x 300bb deep

River is tough maybe 7750 or folding seems pl. calling doesn't seem bad either.

Really close spot IMO.

Personally think this is a pretty clear fold. Surprised how many people above disagree.

2.5x so ridic tilting 300bb deep


you can make arguments for all options on the river, I personally like raising here. pretend we made a run

Not many hands we open that include a 5

why is it a clear fold, how often do you think he has a straight vs Ak/AA or a bluff ?

is he bet calling the riv with AA ? if so we can prob c/c cos he'll be bluffing alot on this runout then too.

david how many hands does he 3bet vs utg1 that includes a 5?

Really dont think there is  clear definitive answer from the HH, doubt he has sets/straights or QQ on the river.  He either has Kx+ or doesnt, go with a live read and call or fold imo.

Raising river seems pretty bad, nobody ever does this in tourneys as standard in these spots so I dont think you'll fold out any of his value range.

Nobody ever does wht? Raise as a bluff? Or bet fold top pair on a one liner

c/r river for value with >AA, in before you say you do this all the time.  I dont mean "nobody" ever does it, but its so non-standard that people just never believe you have it with this line on this board so I dont think you will get many folds from KJ (which Id guess is bottom of his value range here).

Also Im not sure how much I like c/r for value on this board if that's what we were doing.  We would need him to have Kx that we can beat obviously, value bet 99-QQ or any other 1 pair hands that are <Kx or turn turn Ax into a bluff on the river but imo most of that range gets checked back on the river so Id think at this stage in the tournament it would just be better to lead river for value and try to get some calls from everything he checks back on the river.

Yeh I'm defo in the lead OTR camp with this.  Think we can get calls from worse (he's gonna have a lot of bluff catchers) and if he wants to bluff raise then NH sir (again).

You suggested that we should raise 'pretending we made a straight', it just doesn't look plausible given we opened and villain 3bet.
Looks more likely that villain has either an overpair to the board (which has a 50/50 chance of beating us) or AK which is definitely beating us.
In the absence of any live feel I'd say it's a call at most, being wrong isn't horribly damaging given that we're so deep and being right would move us up the pecking order in our bid to be Table Captain.
I quite like the idea of leading the river, because us having AK is way more plausible than having a 5 but check call feels more appropriate

We c called flop we don't have ak here .

fold. dont like cr bluffing cos i think its far too obv you have a bunch of hands you want to turn into bluffs

this, and agree with pre sizing being too small with 30k stacks.

Sure?

Also how many 5s do we realistically have / what other hands does he expect us to c/r for value on this board which he folds to. I think he will be bet / calling with AA / AK.. Etc a lot here as was said before its pretty obv we have a lot of hands to turn into bluffs / how many out and out bluffs do u expect him to have @ 50/100 of the ME which 3bets pre.