blonde poker forum

£5.75 Bounty Hunter on Sky, blinds 1k/2k.

Prize money is roughly
1st £55
2nd £35
3rd £23

(Can't get exact amounts as the tournament finished and I've closed the lobby already)

I have 40k, button has ~100k. The BB has been away since the last tournament break and has blinded down to 2bb

We are dealt Tens in the SB and the button opens to 4k.

Standard 3bet shove, or pretend it's 72o, fold, and lock up 2nd place?

Ship and crucify the guy HU

fold

yeh like there are no antes to steal, whats been happening in the last few orbits, have you opened at all or shoved etc

I would prob just fold and lock it up then keep folding till you get dem AA innit.

ainec

Yeh it's a fold. Folding QQ?

If he isnt there I think we should be folding aces, OP does he have to lose at showdown or do his cards just get mucked when hes all in?

He has to lose at showdown on Sky.

does the the amount of bounty on heads count for anything

personally i would want too think i can fold this but in play
i would likely just keep pot small and keep calling untill
i am put too the sword for a large portion of my chips

has the button been raising every hand? ever open jamming?

v v v v v much doubt im folding here.

I'm shoving this for sure, can't understand why we would want to fold.

+1 button will most likely be opening close to if not 100%. happy jamming

We effectively get two buyins to fold. I can fold tens for 2 buyins.

Andy,

I think the history is key of some importance here and should effect how we play although having said that I don't think I am folding tens here.

Matt

This is an interesting ICM spot. One where someone calculating equity could go wrong quite easily. Lets consider cEV (chip EV) and £EV (EV in actual monetary value based on prizepool payouts). £EV is what ICM is concerned with.

What we need to know to calculate cEV:   1. How often is the button opening from this position 3 handed? Im guessing its a huge portion of his range.
                                                            2. How much of his opening range is he going to call off a shove with. This will be affected by the table dynamic at the time ie how often are you 3bet jamming.
                                                            3. Once you have a rough estimate of his widest possible calling off range, what is your equity vs that range.

Only once you have that info can you start forming a conclusion of the optimal cEV play here.

lets say for example, he is opening 70% of his range here and only calling off with any pair, ATo+ A8s+ KTs+ KQ and a few JTs type suited connector hands etc which is a range  of 15%, so even for arguments sake lets say he calls of 20%. So he is calling off with 29% of his opening range (20 is 29% of 70) and folding 71% of the time to a shove.

Vs his calling range you have 60% equity. The pot is currently his 4k raise, plus the 3k in blinds, so 7k total. If you shove and he calls the pot is your 40k + his 40k plus the 2k in BB, so 82k.

Here is where you the away player helps because you can guarantee he will fold, which isnt the case if he was here, so it makes the calculation easier because you assume you are heads up ie the amount the BTN folds is the actual amount the shove gets through and isnt distorted by the BB picking up a hand from time to time and spoiling the party.

Using this info plugged into the following  Expected stack = Folding % * (current stack + chips in middle) + calling % * pot if called * equity when called

So here your expected stack from a shove is 0.71 * 46000 + 0.29 * 82000 * 0.6 which equals 46928. So it is a profitable shove based purely on cEV.



But we also have to factor in ICM here of course. Basing off of a 50/30/20 payout structure to keep the numbers easier. Using a standard ICM calculator and plugging in the 50/30/20 structure and the stacks before the hand, stacks if you fold, stacks if you shove and win and stacks if you shove and lose. Before the hand starts your £EV per £100 in prizepool is £34.725. If we just let our hand go we are left with a 39k stack, which changes our £EV to £34.967 (notice it went up just because we folded, as now the BB only has 1bb left and his EV drops a lot and the big stack now has even more chips so his equity increases slightly). If you shove and win your stack becomes 46k and your £EV becomes £36.014. Obviously if we get called and lose our equity becomes £20 per £100 in the prizepool, as we will receive the 20% of the prizepool for 3rd place prize money.

If we assume we have 60% against BTN calling range as we did before then ICM would say our £EV is 0.6 * 36.014 + 0.4 * 20 = £29.61. So it is less than the £EV we would have if we folded (£34.967). So based on ICM and your £EV its a fold.

Of course all these calculations are assuming 60% equity vs his calling range, which I think is a pretty good estimate. Just out of interest, or for anyone who actually cares, you would need over 90% equity to make this a profitable ICM shove, so that means even AA is a fold pre, which seems insane, but is correct.

This spot brings up some interesting dynamics of late stage tournament play vs cash play or even early stages tournament play. This is a clear shove in a cash game, or early in a tournament. But here in this spot, there is no hand you should shove based purely on ICM. The optimal play is to just fold, let the away player blind out, then crush HU.

You are forgetting to factor in that its a £4 difference and this gives us a better chance of winning the tournament, which is a pretty fun thing to do.

Thats something maths cants figure out really. If you are willing to sacrifice some £EV because you think it increases your edge if you win the all in and get HU with even stacks which will lead to a higher £EV long term then go for it.

I was just using the basic info presented to me

1st prize is chunky, TT is a good hand, guy could sit back in. jam ainec.

I'm not folding, shoving seems good here especially if they have been opening every button

if they are a massive nit then could call & set or shutdown

Thanks all for responses so far :)




I should've probably included more information in the OP.  :D

The away guy was chip leader when he disappeared, I had 20bb at the time @ 600/1200, villain had me covered. I was expecting the away guy to return, so at that time the villain was raising the button, I was 3b jamming a lot. Think I got it through 3 or 4 times without being called.

Once it became more obvious that the away guy wasn't going to return, and we'd both chipped up from the away guy a bit, there were hardly any big pots. Most pots were won pre-flop with a minraise, a few hands were just being checked down with showdown value, and Ace high or King high won the pot. This was happening more and more as the away guy got shorter.

Can't remember the villain 3betting me at all, might have happened once. He seemed afraid to go out in 3rd. Apart from the 3bet shoving mentioned earlier, I 3bet him a couple of times although nothing went to showdown, he folded pre or folded to my cbet every time. I eventually got caught out, blinds 1k/2k he opens to 4k, I 3bet 10k (Because King blockers are the nuts), away BB obv folds, and he calls. I cbet 10k, he clicks it back, I fold. This knocked me back down to just over 20bb @ 1k/2k, and the spot in the OP happened a couple of orbits later.

Re: #3 in Adiman's post - Tough to assign a calling range. Think he was opening maybe 50% of buttons, and because I should be shoving much tighter when the away guy has 2.5bb and he has me covered, I'm assuming he would call with something like 99+, AJ+, maybe 88/ATs at a push?

1 guys away.... we're not fighting now.


he's opening 'only' 50% of buttons.


just fold. get 2nd locked. den win dis.

3 handed, folding 10s to a big stack open when the 3rd guy is sat out? Surely this is a standard raise-call off, knowing the big stack will often try to abuse their stack size? In terms of ICM, seems a good spot to catch up/overtake the big stack and go for the win!