blonde poker forum

Semi deep in FTOPS main pretty annoying/dirty spot

Villian is Dermot Blain ive been at the table 3 hands and niether of us have put a chip in a pot he will see me as random punter.

Blinds 2500/5k/500

Dermot opens the button to 10k off of 190k

I call in the big blind off 80k with  7c 5c

Yes obviously I can jam pre but I think this can be a more effective way to play the hand cuz we can x/r gii on a wide range of flops etc.

Flop  Ahrt Jd 7s (Pot 27k)

Check/check

Turn  7d

We bet 16475 kinda big but i think its a good spot to bet big as its really tough for me to have a hand etc and I dont expect him to fold the turn ever. Also allows us to jam the river.

He calls.

River  Aspades (Pot 60k)

We have 53k on the river, fml?

6665- fold?

Min bet fold? Not sure. You don't have a single Ace in your range as it's so default to 3bet jam here and if you decide to not jam A2o then you're not peeling it.

Think bet calling is most optimum line, deffo bet small enough to make it look like you can be folding to a jam as he doesn't know you and means he can call with a J. He will just check a J back otherwise.

part of me wants to jam this as you have literally no Ax in your range and hope Jx QQ/KK which is feasible, hero calls you.

Yeah I nearly posted this, but thought about it and think that a random (TL is a random in this hand fwiw) doesn't usually just bluff all their chips off on this type of board, just what I think with experience. You will most definitely see a random/fish bluff the river here though, just think that they don't usually commit all their chips in this spot.

Still, you think about all the hands that opp checks back flop and calls turn they are VERY heavily weighted to hands with a jack in them. Possibly some with an ace in them too unfortunately. You'd expect him to bet out all hands with no showdown value because tom's perceived range has no aces in it and probably not many high cards in it either.


Don't think I mind betting or jamming tbh, never checking though obv, think that's terrible.

kinda more worried about Quads than a single Ax here. With your range being highly weighted towards broadways its likely any Ax would bet the flop here pretty small

nitnitnitnitnitnit

would he not bet an ace on the flop if he had one?

iv literally never said this in a NL PHA thread before but... fold pre? I'd always fold this over doing anything else, calling off 16 bb seems a bit spew hoping to flop a pair or a FD, where I think he'll play pretty perfectly against you. E.G if you flop 874 and c/r AI he will fold AK/AQ/KQ and so on, and call AI with TT or w/e, Maybe if it comes 28Jccx he will bet/fold 44 or A2 or something but I don't think we're gonna put him in many tough PF spots here... Going all-in for a decent amount of equity with 7high seems spewy as well?

I don't like the big bet on the turn either with no image, bog bet turn/shove river yes bluffy but is he ever gonna give "random punter#1" credit for just pouncing on his "capped flop range" and putting his whole stack in, or is he just gonna think, "meh prolly has AJo or something and was too scared to go all-in preflop" knowing Dermot, he's not calling KK to a river jam on a bricked river vs a random, nor do I think he should.

I'd bet small make it look like either a silly bluff, or a timid JT or something, and i'd bet smallish on the river as well (if its blank obv) having said that we've bet big OTT and gotten a silly river card, I have no idea. c/c and hope he value cuts himself with QQ/KK/KJ? Jamming over-reps your hand a bit which i never really like doing and betting small/calling seems very similar to betting small and folding. Yes you have very few Ax but with the image of a Random Punter Nit I think it's very feasible you've flicked the 5k in with an ACE because you didn't want to be AI pre-flop, I'm sure that happens all the time in tourneys?

vs competent villain I'd much prefer to just jam this pre, I think given that he thinks that you're a random punter he's going to make a way bigger mistake by calling you too light than he's likely to make postflop in position.

I like your turn sizing over something smaller, I think against an unknown both sizes get equal credit for bluffs, he's calling turn always so just go bigger. I think with your image you can safely bet/fold river, I don't expect him to take off with KK/QQ/Jx vs a small river sizing, he's just gunna call and jam his Ax so I'm going with pads' 6665/fold line I think

Jam pre >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> peel vs this villain for me though

Jam pre-flop? Seriously? Am I way behind the times but this seems kinda bad...

Most people's ranges will be wide enough, and not calling joke wide, that we can profitably jam here.

Maths/Geeks rule the world.

surely there are miles better hands? Anything with a big card or a blocker would be miles better?

It can be very profitable. We've only played 3 hands though so I don't think I'm going to do this myself. If someone opens 75% of buttons and calls the jam with say  25% of his range then you are going to show a great profit. A good tool for this is found here: http://www.fpppro.com/fold-equity-calculator.php

I understand nobody really opens 80% of buttons but it's just an example, also 25% would also be a wide calling range, but it's a rough adjustment for someone opening so many buttons. Anyway, using the figures above it looks like this:

Estimated equity when called 35.7% (Used pokerstove for this)
Opponent would need to fold 55% of the time to show a profit.

If the values above were true, you'd be making quite a large profit by jamming as opponent is folding to your jam 66% of the time. Of course this is all in a vacuum and it's pretty hard to determine buttons true btn opening frequency and calling adjustments if he is aware that you are 3bet jamming a lot here. In reality he should stop opening on you if you're going to stick 75s in his eye.

I'm a geek.

Haha monda, we both made a geek reference. Go us.

Q5s has the same equity (35.8%) as 75s in my example.

BTW this is in no way an argument for the OP that jamming is better. I think with no stats/history my favourite line is to just fold pre. Calling could be ok, but it's not what I'd do and I'd just never jam.

I would also just fold pre a lot, but I'm aware of this new 2013 trend of regs wanting to peel off 12-17bbs with this sort of hand were they can take off on loads of boards.

Dubai, the legend, said not to be a sheep, so I'm sticking to my guns and playing 2011 styleeeeeeeee :P

It will be the in thing again by 2015, just gotta grind it out.

Yeh I peel joke wide from really shallow stacks. Like how bad is peeling j9s/q8s/96s going to be with 7bbs and no fold equity gong t be from somebody opening button with 25bb?

if 75s actually has 35% equity against a calling range, and people really are folding 66% of the time, then I stand corrected. I don't have any experience to back this up but that feels very bizarre to me...crazy tourneys hey!

Also does the fact Q6s takes 7 combo's of QQ and AQ out whereas 75s just takes 3 combo's of 77 away not factor in? Maybe 4 combo's doesn't make too much difference if you're dealing with wide calling ranges.


Is it not better to just call off wider? That way you don't lose the dead chips when you have 83o in the BB and fold?

Thanks anyway Dan + Monda for taking the time :)

this is nothing to do with being a sheep, this is trying to exploit people for opening too wide and cbetting too wide.

If you add a cbet into your preflop odds (which is going to come such a high % of the time) then im getting 6+/1 on a call pre it just cant ever be bad.

Not sheepy at all, maybe off like 24-30bb this becomes standard but I think i fold off 16.

C/shove turn? Why do you think he is never folding, I mean people rarely give up on A high boards but if he has T5s with a backdoor then checking the flop seems fine. Really like the turn size as played. I was going to say bet small/fold but then we kinda cripple our stack if we lose. Its probably the line I take though.

we wont have many Ax so not cbetting t5 would seem bad

river easy c/f then?

why? were at the tip top of our range. its anything but an easy fold.

I was just joking around with the sheep comment, thought that was pretty obv :)

i used to always peel these (on medium+ buyins on stars) as long as i had 10bigs back after the peel and they weren't someone who cbets massive so there is some fold eq left postflop when i ship the cbet. i've actually been reigning that in and will now only do it occasionally off 12-20bb trying to cherry pick the right opponent...if i've been paying enough attention.

i don't very often ship  these particular hands pre, though i'm sure it will be profitable a lot of the time. i'd rather ship these in lower buyin games, but that is specific to my game cos anyone that has a HUD is calling my shoves here too wide for it to be profitable :S