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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: action man on January 16, 2014, 10:48:13 PM



Title: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on January 16, 2014, 10:48:13 PM
villain is good solid reg


Full Tilt Poker Game #33776725408: Three For Thursday (263284658), Table 6 - NL Hold'em - 300/600 Ante 75 - 22:28:31 WET - 2014/01/16 [17:28:31 ET - 2014/01/16]
Seat 1: d_quang (12,420)
Seat 2: Adzizzy124 (16,348)
Seat 3: TheClaimer (28,212)
Seat 5: DownByDaBridge (27,880)
Seat 8: SmurfeHits (27,979)
Seat 9: BAWSIN (16,092)
d_quang antes 75
Adzizzy124 antes 75
TheClaimer antes 75
DownByDaBridge antes 75
SmurfeHits antes 75
BAWSIN antes 75
BAWSIN posts the small blind of 300
d_quang posts the big blind of 600
The button is in seat #8
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to TheClaimer [Ad As]
Adzizzy124 folds
TheClaimer raises to 1,200
DownByDaBridge has 15 seconds left to act
DownByDaBridge has timed out
DownByDaBridge folds
DownByDaBridge is sitting out
SmurfeHits calls 1,200
BAWSIN has 15 seconds left to act
DownByDaBridge has returned
BAWSIN calls 900
d_quang folds
*** FLOP *** [Jd 5d Ks] (Total Pot: 4,650, 3 Players)
BAWSIN bets 1,800
TheClaimer raises to 4,200
SmurfeHits has 15 seconds left to act
SmurfeHits raises to 7,800
BAWSIN folds
TheClaimer has 15 seconds left to act
TheClaimer has requested TIME
HighLight89 sits down
daisyxoxo sits down
veiberg sits down
TheClaimer calls 3,600
*** TURN *** [Jd 5d Ks] [4h] (Total Pot: 22,050, 2 Players)
TheClaimer checks
SmurfeHits bets 18,904, and is all in
TheClaimer has 15 seconds left to act
TheClaimer has requested TIME


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: Dubai on January 16, 2014, 10:55:42 PM
Typed decent post with ranges, maths etc but on phone and it deleted it. Basically pretty straight forward assuming you put him similar range

Call


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on January 16, 2014, 11:10:59 PM
the donk leader is probably worst ever to show in a $320 which makes things a little different and changes villains rainge a little


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: pleno1 on January 16, 2014, 11:27:40 PM
Absolutely hating life after flop gets 3bet. AA is really low down in our flop value raising range here and by e time we get to the turn even more so. At least with ak we could block some kj combos here we also have the anti blocker (ad) so v v v ugly


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: dakky on January 17, 2014, 12:26:00 AM
Absolutely hating life after flop gets 3bet. AA is really low down in our flop value raising range here and by e time we get to the turn even more so. At least with ak we could block some kj combos here we also have the anti blocker (ad) so v v v ugly

pretty dirty indeed.
What's would you estimate as Smurfe's preflop (presumable wider with the donk in the blinds) range OTB? I find it interesting that he 3b's any but the most vunerable of his range, and then to this sizing?

Why doesn't he want to keep the donk sb in the pot? We can probably eliminate  Kd xd imo.

I assume he is 3b or folding KJo pre. His nutted value range is so tiny it's ridic. KJ x 2 and 3 x 55....


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: pleno1 on January 17, 2014, 01:42:41 AM
decent stacks behind to rip it in over raise and call too.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: dakky on January 17, 2014, 01:29:05 PM
decent stacks behind to rip it in over raise and call too.

True so this should tighten is range somewhat, though I can't imagine he is ever flatting KK/JJ here. How 3b happy are the blinds?

I'm still struggling to decide exactly what he has though.

Is he peeling QT sooooted vs you here trigg?

Did/do you have stats on him?


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: lucky_scrote on January 17, 2014, 01:43:54 PM
I get levelled tons here and feel I'm making some poor decisions in scenarios just like these.

Dubai if you cba can you post up what originally got deleted, I'd be interested for sure.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on January 17, 2014, 03:58:50 PM
he was like 20 vpip, 21 raise first in and 4% 3bet


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on January 17, 2014, 05:07:44 PM
a lot of people ive shown this hand to on skype have said that they dont call flop to fold turn. I think this is backward thinking because us calling his cold flop 3bet strengthens our range in his mind. i think on the flop its possible that he could be taking the lead in the hand with QK type hand not wanting to go 3 way with the fish also, i think i can eliminate this hand from his range after he jams the turn.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: Junior Senior on January 17, 2014, 07:52:28 PM
Does anyone think he has 55 here? I do.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: youthnkzR on January 17, 2014, 11:23:02 PM
His BB peel range hits this flop pretty hard - can we assume he knows we know this (i.e. does he know us)? Therefore its pretty rare we raise here as a bluff which then means in theory he must have a super strong range to 3bet the flop and therefore we don't even need to call the 3b in order to eliminate the KQ type hands.

As played would fold turn but not a fan of calling the 3b in the first place.

Edit didn't read hand properly (thought it was HU vs BB and BTN folded flop) but surely this strengthens the argument. The guy who raised us on the flop surely knows were never raising a bluff into 2 opponents on this board.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on January 18, 2014, 01:22:01 AM
think youve misread the hand mate


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: Oxford_HRV on January 18, 2014, 02:22:19 AM
surely KJ is in his range on button, the table is playing 6 handed. good solid reg is ultimately never 3ballin draws, could have even been peeling JJ pre!?


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: wazz on January 18, 2014, 09:40:21 AM
a lot of people ive shown this hand to on skype have said that they dont call flop to fold turn. I think this is backward thinking because us calling his cold flop 3bet strengthens our range in his mind. i think on the flop its possible that he could be taking the lead in the hand with QK type hand not wanting to go 3 way with the fish also, i think i can eliminate this hand from his range after he jams the turn.

Point is that he's very rarely 3betting the flop to check many turns, especially not this one, so 'keeping him honest' really has no value unless we're going to continue keeping him honest. I don't mind calling to fold to a jam on some turns like 9d.

I don't think we're smashing his range but he should have enough combo draws, even tho we have the Ad, to justify a call/call


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: youthnkzR on January 18, 2014, 10:38:24 AM
think youve misread the hand mate

Yeah I did. Basically what I was saying is he never has a total bluff. we have the  Ad which decreases draw combos somewhat, and agreed is v unlikely he jams turn with KQ and only jams hands for value which beat ours.

Put that range in pokerstove and see if we're getting the right price to call.

Also, something which I think a lot of MTT players are guilty of is not factoring in their 'tournament life' and being too maths driven. I understand this may not be as much of a factor in what I assume is a tougher field, but in softer ones it seems a lot of people dont think about edge passing. This may be a spot if we're only just getting a price.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: dakky on March 19, 2014, 01:52:19 AM
results trigg?


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on March 19, 2014, 12:11:08 PM
i folded


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 19, 2014, 06:04:13 PM
Oh dear.

Obvious issue is he can have some semi-bluffs  Qd Td /  Qd 9d but there is no other SD/FD combo's and obviously the most likey semi-bluff we block, could be going nutso with QT (I assume he has all QT's even the offsuit ones preflop) but the thread title described him as good/solid and I think losing your nuts here with naked QT (speshly with the punter in the hand) wouldnt be a very good/solid thing to do.

as for calling flop/foldin turn debate... Seems very unfeasible he's going to give up on the flop with any of the hands we beat, so the only merit to calling flop/folding turn would  be that he gave up a decent%, I think his range jamming the turn is the same as his range 3b the flop (or at least EXTREMELY close) so for me if we call flop 3bet should prolly call the turn jam.

I'm sure calling/calling prolly slightly better thaat shipping the flop.

I get a feeling you should fold to the flop raise, although it feels kinda FYL





Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: dwayne110 on March 19, 2014, 06:51:49 PM
Horrible spot, but I think I'm folding the turn bet, as played villain looks ridiculously strong and cannot expect us to be folding to a shove once we've called OTT. Just think our hand strength has shrivelled up in relation to the likely range of hands he plays this way, which is weighted mostly towards 2 pair/sets.  If it's a semi bluff then well played, next hand. I think calling the flop raise was an error if we're doing so without planning to fold the shove, which given the pot size and line by villain was always very likely.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: rfgqqabc on March 19, 2014, 09:28:18 PM
Call flop and hit the middle button a lot. I kind of see the value in raising but not really. Trying not to be too results orientated because obviously what happens after our flop raise is the nut low outcome really.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on March 20, 2014, 04:09:10 PM
not sure if im a subscriber to the "if you call turn, you should call river" thinking. i think its pretty outdated, will explain why later too busy on the grind now


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: SuuPRlim on March 20, 2014, 04:30:14 PM
not sure if im a subscriber to the "if you call turn, you should call river" thinking. i think its pretty outdated, will explain why later too busy on the grind now

I agree blindlty sayingg "if we call the turn we have to call river" but it depends how his range changes street by street. if his range that raises the flop and his range that jams the turn is the same (or very close to the same) then calling one raise and folding the next is a mistake right?


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on March 20, 2014, 04:43:17 PM
well, we don't know for sure he will jam turn. And a lot of regs like to value bet/commit with draws in these spots so i actually would have reacted differently to a non jam bet here.

and also as i said int he thread earlier i thought there was a good chance he was taking the lead in the hand with Kx to check back a heap of turns and not go 3 way to the turn, and probably thought my raise fo the fish's donk lead had a wider range than it probably does.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on March 20, 2014, 04:48:07 PM
so yes i think his raise flop range to jam turn range changes quite a lot


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: action man on March 20, 2014, 04:51:59 PM
how many of you with Kx as villain would just peel my flop raise? how many would click it not wanting to go 3 ways with the fish and have loads of horrid turns? 


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: AlexMartin on March 20, 2014, 06:11:32 PM
how many of you with Kx as villain would just peel my flop raise? how many would click it not wanting to go 3 ways with the fish and have loads of horrid turns? 

if I got here with ak I guess id peel flop, not many other kx id continue with to your raise. never raising flop to avoid shitty turns.

Id flat the fishes lead I think, also his coldcall range doesn't include some of the diamond combos mentioned I don't think so holding the Ad is huge, cant really expect him to think we will fold anything after this flop action, so folding turn looks good.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: youthnkzR on March 21, 2014, 10:18:14 AM
Can't believe I said fold in the past ITT.

Call.


Title: Re: SIck spot vs good solid reg in $320 tilt
Post by: AlexMartin on March 21, 2014, 05:22:27 PM
Can't believe I said fold in the past ITT.

Call.

why? his line is extremely strong, he's not going nuts with KQ here (is he?) and his value combos smash his semibluffs combo numbers by at least 3:1. He has no pure bluffs.