blonde poker forum

PokerStars - $7.34+$0.66|1000/2000 Ante 200 NL - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4 (http://www.pokertracker.com)

BB: 39,198 (VPIP: 14.75, PFR: 14.54, 3Bet Preflop: 11.32, Hands: 311)
UTG: 1,382 (VPIP: 5.26, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 19)
MP: 8,226 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
CO: 23,984 (VPIP: 22.58, PFR: 18.52, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 32)
Hero (BTN): 58,851
SB: 20,455 (VPIP: 10.71, PFR: 8.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 29)

6 players post ante of 200, SB posts SB 1,000, BB posts BB 2,000

Pre Flop: (pot: 4,200) Hero has   Jd Ks

fold, fold, fold, Hero

Plan of action here?  We have seen bb reshove 44 and QJo previously in these spots.

Also, not worried about ICM here, just cEV.

I think I'm happy just raise folding I think.

This could be one of those limp button jobbies but I just don't do that in game when I got 25 tables going!

I would like to discount limping the button as an option for the sake of this thread.  As you said callum, too difficult to manage properly with 25 tables open.

I'd expect a QJo and 44 to be in a proper 3bet jamming range from the BB here. If someone is jamming fairly correctly then KJo is also close, but leaning towards a fold because he might not be super loose given his stack size.

If villain is shoving wide is raise/calling better than raise/folding?

on a scale of 1-10, how bad is setting both the blinds in rather than r/f or r/c?

not saying that is what I would normally do but is it an option?

Haven't looked at any numbers but I'd say seeing him jam 44 in this spot isn't really indicative of him having a wide 3bjam range in these spots since 44 is an absolute slam dunk jam unless BTN is opening joke tight.

Pretty happy to raise/fold here, yeah sometimes we get jammed on by worse but the more likely outcome is that he peels with a ton hands that KJ dominates and gives us plenty of profitable situations postflop.


It'd be +cEV for sure so its better than folding in a vacuum. It'd have some ICM implications though with the 20bb stack which I'd assume is a pretty good stack in a 180 turbo with 13 left?

Hey just wondering why you've put ICM is no consideration here?

Given just a cEV spot i'd be reasonably sure we can profitably r/c vs both.

Limp jamming looks nice

I mean, 44 or QJ is hardly aggro.

If you think he's shipping any wider in your eye then just raise/call.

No good when 30 tabling and we are btn!

Raise/decide. The thought process on the decide is I should call here sometimes but do I fancy it etc.

Its the F2T of a 180 man and the payouts at this stage aren't really worth worry about.  I would much rather arrive on the FT with a huge stack and give myself the best possible chance of winning than just fold to 7th or 8th place.  It's all about the top 2 spots (preferably the top 1).

I purposefully didn't do any maths on this spot before I posted cause I just wondered what the general opinion would be.  I spoke to a few people off blonde and didn't get much love for r/c'ing in game, but it felt kind of right.  So I just ran some numbers and came up with the following result.

So I have assumed the following (thoughts please) for the bb:

Calls a shove with: 44+,A2s+,KTs+,QJs,A5o+,KJo+
Reshoves with: 22+,A2s+,K4s+,Q8s+,J9s+,T9s,98s,87s,A2o+,K7o+,QTo+,JTo

So I ran some numbers for this spot and interestingly, there are no bad options as long as you don't open fold.

Raise/Fold nets us 1416.92 chips
Raise/Call nets us 2609.08 chips
Open Shove nets us 1869.14 chips

Further, if we assume the same calling range, but change the reshoving range to a much tighter:

22+,A2s+,K7s+,QTs+,A2o+,K9o+,QJo

Raise/Fold nets us 1961.40 chips
Raise/Call nets us 1983.12 chips
Open Shove nets us 1869.14 chips

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/showpost.php?p=41862005&postcount=14

ICM factor low due to payout structure i guess?

For variance reasons I imagine giving up the 1/100th of a big difference between r/c and r/f is fairly prudent. Furthermore it doesn't seem very good for him to call off with 44 altho you should know the math more.

44 is what he should be calling according to nash.  So basically that's just the optimal calling range.  He may fold 44 or A2s but where do you stop taking hands out the range he should be calling?

Lol @ the timex quote.  Would defo be considering ICM with 14 left in an MTT as the payouts would be worth more buy ins.  Even 5th place in 180's is worth less that 10 buy ins whereas the difference between 14th and 9th in regular MTT's is the difference between 10 and 20 buy ins with the opportunity of winning, say, 340 buy ins.

When (if ever) do we have to start thinking about ICM in these? Is it even a factor should we just use cEV?

i think fold equity is being underrated here. the number of times i'll shove in this sort of spot and someone will fold ace rag face up is surprising.

To be fair, according to nash A2-A4o are a fold.  And we would maybe get them to fold some of the smaller suited Aces, but even in the original calculation villain is folding those rag Aces 100% of the time.  The benefit we get isn't from getting him to fold a rag Ace, but from getting him to eyeball a wider range that we have, for the most part, in really bad shape.  He will shove far more Kx Qx Jx hands that we have crushed that he will fold Ax.


Once we get the FT we can start thinking about ICM, at least imo.  But I don't really give it any serious consideration until were about 5 handed.