blonde poker forum

http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-hands/Boom/7235822_295ACE9039

OR - 29/14 (only 14 hands)
Caller - 33/0 (only 14 hands)

What is best play? Is the flat pre okay? are you raising this flop? can we continue on turn?

Fold pre for me. With the players behind still to act and the EP raise. His hand is weighted towards being more nutty with the line he takes.
Don't like the flat pre that much. Call on the flop is not so bad as you cap the action and you are getting nice pot odd's at this point. Folding the turn to that bet as we are almost certainly behind.

But we are almost certainly behind on the flop too, so that can't be the only reason?  We must have at least 12 outs twice on that flop, even vs 2 villians, and we have 15 often.  We can't hope for a better flop.  Am definitely raising that flop sometimes, especially with the caller.  Probably raising more often than calling.  If you don't raise this draw, which draws are you raising?  Struggling to fold turn too, it is just so pretty.  It is $9, surely we get a fair few calls when we hit anyway.  If we call, there is always a chance he has 2 clubs and we hit gin too.

raising flop every single time, we are ahead of over pairs.

Yeah what doobs said.  Definitely raising the flop and if they call I think I am continuing on turn too.  

Thank you for all replies guys,

I think that I decided to flat flop and see if he continued his aggression on the turn. But ye,  I think that with the caller on the flop raise/gii would be a better play.

High variance play raising the flop. Semi bluff not something that sit's so well with me
can see the logic it's just a play I would not so comfortable with.

If he has AA we are slightly behind (know we have a blocker) and if he were to have pocket 10's we are also a decent dog. So it's not as simple as we are ahead with the draw imo.

Turn card drops our equity further also. Prefer the call on the flop as we are playing the pot in position, one of the saving graces here. Oop think I would be more inclined to take the approach of raising that flop sometimes as you eluded to. Gutshot only gives us 3 extra outs at best so I'm not overly excited.

At low stakes we can get our money in better shape. V's you doobs I'd quite possibly take the high variance route. That's another matter though.

Run some equity calculations and get back to me  ;charmaine;

with the shorty inbetween it makes raise sizing simply a click back. original raiser will hopefully 3b all made hands E.G overpairs, sets, TPTK. and we can then raise/gii.

there is just 12 combos that have us beat equity wise, maybe 9, presuming they don't open 33's plus there will be a tons of fold equity and tons of time we are getting it in ahead.

if im calling with A2s its so i can get all my chips in on flops like this.


Board: Th5c3c
   Equity   Win   Tie
MP2   28.20%   27.64%   0.56%   { 55+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, JTs, T9s, ATo+, KQo }
MP3   22.82%   21.66%   1.16%   { 33+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T7s+, 98s, A2o+, K9o+, QTo+, JTo, T7o+ }
CO   48.98%   47.88%   1.10%   { Ac2c }

we are 55/45 v over pairs
we are 53/47 v over pairs with a club

Given what is already in the pot when it gets to us, I think we must always have the odds to shove vs any hand, so shoving is always fine.  I don't do this as it makes it look like we have precisely our hand.  But we 3 bet this plus our sets etc, so they can't read what we have. This way we get lots of hands we are racing with to fold.  We can also get a lot of hands that we are crushing to call, such as KQs, QJs etc.  Pretty much nobody at those stakes is getting away from those on that flop.

Just think it is as good as it gets for us, and we don't really find a lot of better spots in the average tournament.  Sonetimes we'll be slightly behind, but the chips in the pot already still make it +cEV.  Alternatively we can call flop, fold turn and lose chips.  Doesn't seem so good to me. 

Always another tournament if we go out here, and at least everyone at the table knows we don't just raise sets next time we meet.

Agree with all this, also atm we have ace high so its not to bad if out raise takes it down here right? (i know this is not likely when the guys going sick on us)

Definitely raise flop dude, you'll get it through a lot on this texture which misses people a decent % of the time.

Still don't like jamming 60/70 odd bigs on that flop sorry.

We should expect more fold equity because we are committing vs player two thus should have sets, combo draws and occasionally tptk kinda hands

Personally don't think the initial raiser is folding here often enough to justify a play that looks like a draw. Are you getting this in while playing cash Pleno?.

Again seems like a high variance play V's openers strong range(not too concerned about the short stack). The pot is not even that big on the flop(others want to increase the volatility here).
Re raise on the flop is going to hurtle us towards his shove threshold.

Am I missing the whole point here. Obviously respect your opinion.

While Oxford_hrv's post is well thought out I don't like the way he has constructed villains ranges in this instance.

OR's range isn't necessarily strong, i'd imagine he'd cbet this texture a pretty high % of the time so feel pretty confident there'll be plenty of AK-AJ/KQ/77-99 type hands which we can get to fold.  If we do get it in vs the stronger part of his range our hand is still in decent shape equity wise and we'll sometimes dominate vs worse fds.

Don't think it matters much that our hand possibly looks like a draw in an $8, plus the player behind gives us quite a lot of protection in this way.

That isn't really relevant apart from being able to understand our opponents play and thought processes better.

I think folding pre is the best play, especially as with the caller being quite short we often face an allin on the flop which makes things tough. As played we should be very happy to raise and get it in on the flop. I think Sulpher is giving our opponent far far too much credit. We make a bunch of money versus all but the very top of our opponents range and he can be betting quite wide here. Furthermore, we can often get our opponent to stack off with hands we dominate such as 67cc KQcc etc which makes up for some of the times he does have AA/sets. His turn bet looks very strong but we virtually have the price to call here with future implied odds.

We also have a shortstack in the pot he can definitely call off dominated or with weak hands. I'd be very very happy raising the flop and getting it in here.

yeh this is why I'm well for raising the flop, I think the PF raiser continues with a huge % of his PF range on this flop, even hands like AJ he is prolly cbetting and just going to call off vs the short stack, when we raise the flop we are 100% going to be AI vs the short stack, so like Pleno says it takes all of our light hands out of our range, limits us to only really the strongest semi-bluffs and includes hands like KT/AT that we would just flat vs the PF raiser.

if the PFR has QQ then meh w/e we have 15 outs and will still have 2k (albeit a small stack, but grindable) if we lose.

As played though I'd call the turn, think we easy getting the price + there is a chance he might have some KQ/KJ cc type hands as well.

Pre absolutely fine.

Flop line is passive, raise for reasons that lil dave and pleno said.

If somehow OR peels and shorty folds then jamming turn if checked to me. This can't be too bad in the big 8 where other people take awful lines like peeling flop raises then folding turns.