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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 08:48:08 AM



Title: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 08:48:08 AM
Incredible 100 last night. 24 left, 21 paid. average is ~250k. blinds are 6000-12000 a1000. I have 167k. We are 8 handed. I have been at the table for 5-10 minutes so only seen two hands. All table are unknown except one chap to my immediate left who i know. Villain in this hand is complete unknown to me, between 26-35 years of age.

I am UTG +1 with  Jd Js.

I make it 26k

All folds to BB who has ~360k. He thinks and stares at me for about 30 secs, he plays with his chips for a a bit then scruffily makes it about 70k with a bit of a splash.

Not sure on prizes but min cash probs about 250-400. Circa 8k up top. I am in for full allocation so outlay is £315.

Wwyd?


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Doobs on February 16, 2014, 10:10:17 AM
You just have to go with it.  You have 14 bigs and jacks.  This small bet was presumably to induce?  If you are uncomfortable here, then I think you should consider starting shoving your entire range?  This hand is going to be pretty high up in your raising range here, so it shouldn't be in your raise folding part of it.

I am crap at tells.  Other than his bet size, this all looks like a weak hand to me.  Maybe someone who plays live more often than once a blue moon can advise better.

 


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: KarmaDope on February 16, 2014, 10:33:40 AM
Think I just open shove here preflop, but as played I dont think you can fold. Get it in.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: david3103 on February 16, 2014, 10:52:03 AM
if you are raise folding this hand with this stack and this situation you may as well just fold it pre
open jamming seems best though


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: TL900 on February 16, 2014, 11:09:05 AM
I think its a hell of a lot closer than everyone else seems too but maybe im just a nit  ;marks; ;hide;


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: kinboshi on February 16, 2014, 11:19:59 AM
I think I'm shoving with less than 10 effective BBs. But probably not too much wrong with leading out small to then shove against a re-raise. Definitely not folding though.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: JGill_DTD on February 16, 2014, 11:23:49 AM
I get it in pre, it's an obv jam if you think he may be capable of exploiting the bubble situation.

As played I sigh get it in


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: lucky_scrote on February 16, 2014, 11:39:59 AM
Online if I'm at a table full of unknowns and I've got JJ utg 14bb's then I'm opening instead of jamming purely for the inducing factor. If I'm at a table full of regs or people I play with a lot I usually just jam with less than 15bb's because it's profitable to do so with a nash range (say 33+ JTs+) as long as you include your strong hands too. Normally I induce though :D.

This spot is fine to get it in, sure some people induce here with strong hands but some people also don't know what they are doing and 3bet here to 70k instead of jamming with 99 AQ AK hands.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 12:09:31 PM
Great responses so far. Just to be clear i wasnt uncomfortable here at all I just wanted to get views as really playing it over on drive home. I think in this spot there is a case to raise fold as i am unknown to table, i have a mid to average stack that is in danger. I am UTG+1 and raising after on only my third hand at the table.  i am being played back at by BB which isnt standard re-steal play against an ep opener. Yes he may be exploiting bubble but why not wait until he has been opened on in late position?

I raised to 26k as felt i wouldnt be called by worse with this stack in this situation if i shoved. I am utg+1 so feasibly two stacks could go to war behind and i could fold.

On reflection why would hus range be anything other than AK, maybe AQ and 10-10+ ?

Feels alot closer than i initially thought.

I actually 4 bet jammed and pretty much beat him into the pot. Wondered if i should have given it more thought?



Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: SuuPRlim on February 16, 2014, 12:17:36 PM
70k looks ridiculously strong, puke.

I'd end up going allin and kicking myself when he just has Kings


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: rfgqqabc on February 16, 2014, 12:51:10 PM
I'm pretty sure i minraise (26 is cool) and I think I find a fold although it'd depend on looking at the dude too tbh. He looks so strong and we might even be 15/24 after folding.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: George2Loose on February 16, 2014, 01:13:35 PM
Good luck


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 01:16:15 PM
I'm pretty sure i minraise (26 is cool) and I think I find a fold although it'd depend on looking at the dude too tbh. He looks so strong and we might even be 15/24 after folding.

Didnt case stacks in the room but reckon i would be about that ballpark. I am playing for the win obv but still dont wanna get it in bad vs a guys range on the almost bubble. I know i could have grinded to a min cash if i really had to.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 01:17:06 PM
Good luck

.?


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: George2Loose on February 16, 2014, 01:20:10 PM

As in I'm not folding!


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: cambridgealex on February 16, 2014, 01:24:45 PM
70k looks ridiculously strong, puke.

I'd end up going allin and kicking myself when he just has Kings

this.

I'm probably just open jamming JJ in this, as in a live £100er you're more likely to get a bunch of peels than inducing someone else to jam, which isnt actually that great with JJ. AA/KK different story of course...

As played, I could hero fold here vs some people depending on my read of them. This is QQ+ very often imo. Not even AK really. Most live players would just rip AK here rather than going 70k.

Unlucky!


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: gs08bjohnson on February 16, 2014, 01:28:13 PM
I definitely usually open here, but on or near the bubble I would open jam preflop. You want to minimise your chances of going broke before cashing.

Once you get 4 bet, especially by the bb with no one to act behind, you can never love it, but I don't think you can fold without a very specific read on the opponent.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 01:56:52 PM
70k looks ridiculously strong, puke.

I'd end up going allin and kicking myself when he just has Kings

this.

I'm probably just open jamming JJ in this, as in a live £100er you're more likely to get a bunch of peels than inducing someone else to jam, which isnt actually that great with JJ. AA/KK different story of course...

As played, I could hero fold here vs some people depending on my read of them. This is QQ+ very often imo. Not even AK really. Most live players would just rip AK here rather than going 70k.

Unlucky!

Wouldnt be expecting anyone to peel at this stage based on the table demographic which was 6/8 under 30. Could be wrong though. Stacks very shallow and consolodated to peel.

I just hate jamming here as dont expect to get called by anything that i crush, only Maybe 10-10. ak gonna call mostly i suppose which gives me one hand i flip against and 1 i crush.

I thought my standard open leaves me with options after seeing the action.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: cambridgealex on February 16, 2014, 02:15:01 PM
70k looks ridiculously strong, puke.

I'd end up going allin and kicking myself when he just has Kings

this.

I'm probably just open jamming JJ in this, as in a live £100er you're more likely to get a bunch of peels than inducing someone else to jam, which isnt actually that great with JJ. AA/KK different story of course...

As played, I could hero fold here vs some people depending on my read of them. This is QQ+ very often imo. Not even AK really. Most live players would just rip AK here rather than going 70k.

Unlucky!

Wouldnt be expecting anyone to peel at this stage based on the table demographic which was 6/8 under 30. Could be wrong though. Stacks very shallow and consolodated to peel.


Fair enough. Was just making a general point about tables in live £100 tournaments.

RE Jamming, I'd be calling off 88/99 for sure in their shoes, perhaps 77 so I'd disagree with your point about only getting called by one hand that you crush.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 16, 2014, 02:33:25 PM
70k looks ridiculously strong, puke.

I'd end up going allin and kicking myself when he just has Kings

this.

I'm probably just open jamming JJ in this, as in a live £100er you're more likely to get a bunch of peels than inducing someone else to jam, which isnt actually that great with JJ. AA/KK different story of course...

As played, I could hero fold here vs some people depending on my read of them. This is QQ+ very often imo. Not even AK really. Most live players would just rip AK here rather than going 70k.

Unlucky!

Wouldnt be expecting anyone to peel at this stage based on the table demographic which was 6/8 under 30. Could be wrong though. Stacks very shallow and consolodated to peel.


Fair enough. Was just making a general point about tables in live £100 tournaments.

RE Jamming, I'd be calling off 88/99 for sure in their shoes, perhaps 77 so I'd disagree with your point about only getting called by one hand that you crush.

Yeah in a field of higher calibre players i would just jam i think as more likely to be exploited if i standard open near bubble and also they are likely to call off slightly lighter so shove is more profitable. I think in these events you dont tend to get called as light especially near bubble.

The table was unknown so i suppose part of reason for standard open was to get a feel for abilities and how people played etc.

As it happens, the guy had AK and called it off..obviously.

I think i would have an edge in these comps too against the standard field, which is another reason to raise fold and build a stack in other ways and pick the right spots.

Having said that, 30 min clock and turbo blind structure maybe just getting it in raise/call isnt too bad.

Probably an argument for threee options to be fait: jam, raisecall, raisefold.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: AlexMartin on February 17, 2014, 03:13:49 AM
I think its a hell of a lot closer than everyone else seems too but maybe im just a nit  ;marks; ;hide;
+1


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: pleno1 on February 17, 2014, 05:58:55 AM
You just have to go with it.  You have 14 bigs and jacks.  This small bet was presumably to induce?  If you are uncomfortable here, then I think you should consider starting shoving your entire range?  This hand is going to be pretty high up in your raising range here, so it shouldn't be in your raise folding part of it.

I am crap at tells.  Other than his bet size, this all looks like a weak hand to me.  Maybe someone who plays live more often than once a blue moon can advise better.

 


Hmmm, this seems very flawed to me. Just because you get an uncomfortable situation doesn't mean we should avoid the spot. Not only that we dont have to care how far we are kn ur range in a live micro stakes mtt. i also disagree about it being a weak hand it looks like a very very strong hand to me. We have an opening range for exactly this reason (being able to sometimes make ridiculous hero folds) whilst still being able to accumulate chips (opening kjo and other hands he don't want to jam.

I would have a shoving range here but it would be way smaller pairs.

Right now it's horrible, really, really horrible. I think I just fold but if you went with it I'd certainly not think it was bad by any stretch of the imagination. Just imagine he always piles everything we crush and the same with ak/aq.

These spots are less theoretical and way more "feely" you will know what to do way better than anybody who has posted itt. G with your instinct.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 17, 2014, 08:54:35 AM
In my head I had already decided I wasn't folding once I had opened and would be calling a shove from late pos. which is bad. Faced with the information presented to me and if in had thought about it more I think it should probably have been a fold with the way he played it, his stack size and position. Having said that we did actually get it in ahead in this situation. So in isolation I was right but probs not the way to look at it.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: JustinSayne on February 18, 2014, 04:53:06 AM
Snapping a jam, folding to this stupid 3bet sizing


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: muckthenuts on February 18, 2014, 02:45:31 PM
Really really sick spot. I think JJ is right on the border, i would be feel a hell of a lot better about folding TT and AQ here. As played i dunno, in game feel is your friend i suppose but if i had to realllyyyyy choose i would say folding is better than going with it.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: action man on February 18, 2014, 03:36:37 PM
never ever ever ever ever folding this, and heres why. We know the villain isnt of a high standard because of his 3bet size. So we have to trust too much that hes not the type of monkey who would just make a big raise with 55-TT here, think this is too much of an assumption to make. Think preflop shove would be really bad and narrow peoples ranges too much 4 off the money. 88 might set you in over an open and fold to a jam etc. I think this close to the money and at 6/12k we won't usually pick up heaps of callers opening EP, but could be wrong. think the extra 2k is superfluous, 24k does the same job and in the event we do fold we save 2k.


Title: Re: Incredible 100 JJ decision
Post by: Junior Senior on February 18, 2014, 06:25:47 PM
never ever ever ever ever folding this, and heres why. We know the villain isnt of a high standard because of his 3bet size. So we have to trust too much that hes not the type of monkey who would just make a big raise with 55-TT here, think this is too much of an assumption to make. Think preflop shove would be really bad and narrow peoples ranges too much 4 off the money. 88 might set you in over an open and fold to a jam etc. I think this close to the money and at 6/12k we won't usually pick up heaps of callers opening EP, but could be wrong. think the extra 2k is superfluous, 24k does the same job and in the event we do fold we save 2k.

Cheers Trigg. So what do we assign as this villain's 3bet range given his bet sizing here? What would the 3bet sizing be of a good player?