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what should villain call with?

PokerStars Hand #113328938012: Tournament #877041218, $100+$9 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level XXII (3000/6000) - 2014/03/15 23:00:42 CET [2014/03/15 18:00:42 ET]
Table '877041218 21' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: yenomrtgllwi (325251 in chips)
Seat 2: JETS_AA (165916 in chips)
Seat 3: GalaxyForce (241715 in chips)
Seat 4: SamuelBT (92780 in chips)
Seat 5: leopeluca (124955 in chips)
Seat 6: WhooooKidd (112328 in chips)
Seat 7: pads1161 (278277 in chips)
Seat 9: apestyles (43778 in chips)
yenomrtgllwi: posts the ante 600
JETS_AA: posts the ante 600
GalaxyForce: posts the ante 600
SamuelBT: posts the ante 600
leopeluca: posts the ante 600
WhooooKidd: posts the ante 600
pads1161: posts the ante 600
apestyles: posts the ante 600
WhooooKidd: posts small blind 3000
pads1161: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [5h 5c]
apestyles: folds
yenomrtgllwi: folds
JETS_AA: folds
GalaxyForce: folds
SamuelBT: folds
leopeluca: raises 6000 to 12000
WhooooKidd: folds
pads1161: raises 265677 to 277677 and is all-in
leopeluca:


13k
9k
7k
5.3
3.6
3k
2.4k
1.8

66+

77+ AJs+ AQos?

thin

The ranges here feel way too loose. Like 99+ AK+? I know pads can be v.wide but there is a 7bb stack etc. I dont see myself folding AQ in game.

:)

Sorry my post was tongue in cheek

Duh! my bad.

66+ A9o+ QK KJs

seems pretty bad, pads is in the bb hes gona peel all his 98s K9s stuff

edit : doh, meant to edit not quote myself can we not delete posts on here?

Like A8s+ ATo+, KQ. With pairs probs rip pre anything i'm not r/calling with. Probs just jam KJs QJs pre too.

Whaaaaaat?! These seem joke wide!

Definite ICM considerations here. There are some shorties that are probably laddering. It has to be pretty tight, prob TT+ /AQs+. AQo right on the borderline for me.

Also depends a bit on whether villain feels he has an edge vs the competition or whether he feels like he has to gamble as he's outclassed. If he's looking to gamble in big pots he's going to call a lot wider.

Obviously this is going to depend on how wide he is raise folding on the button.  Nash suggests he should steal in this spot (and I'm talking purely from an ICM perspective here) with:

15.8%, 22+ A8s+ A5s-A2s AJo+ K9s+ KJo+ Q9s+ JTs

And we should be jamming with:

42.7%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ A8o A5o-A3o K2s+ K8o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J2s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 95s+ 98o 85s+ 74s+ 63s+ 52s+ 43s

And he should be calling with:

7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+


The opening range above seems a little bit tight and I don't expect most MTT players to tighter up that much when folded to on the button.  If we alter his button opening range to something like:

36.5%, 22+ A8s+ A6s-A2s A2o+ K4s+ K7o+ Q7s+ Q9o+ J9s+ J9o+ T9s T9o 98s 87s

Which means we should jam:

72.3%, 22+ Kx+ Q2s+ Q3o+ J2s+ J7o+ T2s+ T7o+ 92s+ 97o+ 82s+ 86o+ 72s+ 75o+ 62s+ 65o 52s+ 54o 42s+ 32s

And he should call:

10.4%, 77+ A8s+ ATo+ KJs+ KQo


It really does depend on how wide we think the button is opening.

meh, maybe i just suck. I would call an absolute shit ton in pads spot

hmmmm i disagree with this a tonne.

we should surely not be jamming a bunch of those hands, flatting will almost surely be superior????

if we change that 42.7% to lets say 32% how does it change his calling range?

You just asked how wide he should be calling so I presumed you just wanted an ICM evaluation of 3b jamming scenarios.  Not suggesting that flatting isn't option, those are just what the numbers look like if you do decide to jam a full range.


We should 3b jam:

42.7%, 22+ A2s+ ATo+ A8o A5o-A3o K2s+ K8o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J2s+ J9o+ T6s+ T9o 95s+ 98o 85s+ 74s+ 63s+ 52s+ 43s  (amusing that it's the opening range from before)

He should call:

7.1%, 88+ ATs+ AJo+


If we assume that we are going to flat some AA/KK/QQ/AK and AQs, and say JTs, T9s and 98s, making our reshoving range (so basically if removes the premuims and some suited connectors that we might flat from our range):

38.9%, JJ-22 AJs-A2s AQo-ATo A8o A5o-A3o K2s+ K8o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J9s-J2s J9o+ T8s-T6s T9o 97s-95s 98o 85s+ 74s+ 63s+ 52s+ 43s

Then he should call our jam with:

8.6%, 88+ A9s+ ATo+ KQs

ftr i thought villian was CO not btn  ::) but if im villian i still expect pads to be peeling way more than jamming

God mtts are silly! I just read a thread where pads should prolly fold  Qc  Jc in an unopened pot, now he can go all-in with  Qh 2h!!!

 Not for me all this

meh wrote reply but cba with it, carry on

I like this.


Think people in BB are less inclined to peel over Jamming hands which would usually be peeled vs this villians stack because of ICM on FT vs some of these stacks. Ripping e.g. K9s in this spot is much better than peeling. Infact I don't think I have a peeling range in this spot

just out of interest for Tl900 and others, what hands does pleno jam instead of 3bet/calling that crushes my range, bearing in mind icm is pretty irrelevant here.

also looking at the players at least 7 are very good players. its the 100r, people don't 'look to ladder' that often, and the 7bb stack is one of the best in the game.

Genuine lol-moment there Mr B, wp.

Why is ICM pretty irrelevant? Because the $ amounts aren't that great? Surely its about playing correctly not "laddering". Payouts too flat or flat until top 3? It seems like ICM should be relevant.

Tomsoms maths stated

If we assume that we are going to flat some AA/KK/QQ/AK and AQs, and say JTs, T9s and 98s, making our reshoving range (so basically if removes the premuims and some suited connectors that we might flat from our range):

38.9%, JJ-22 AJs-A2s AQo-ATo A8o A5o-A3o K2s+ K8o+ Q2s+ Q9o+ J9s-J2s J9o+ T8s-T6s T9o 97s-95s 98o 85s+ 74s+ 63s+ 52s+ 43s

Then he should call our jam with:

8.6%, 88+ A9s+ ATo+ KQs

However, I feel like Pads peels many hands like Q9s, K8s J9o and the like. I wouldn't expect him to pile 43s or 52s, the bottom 10% of that range maybe. This must mean the calling range above is a little too wide. Also, if we are so unbalanced then why aren't we piling our nut hands more?

Obviously the maths above is a bit simplistic for this spot as we need to factor in peel, 3bet/f, 3bet/c and jamming ranges which is hard to do on a calculator. Just we have a joke wide piling range above that includes 43s and 66 isn't a call vs that so I don't see how your range is correct. (This also makes my range pretty incorrect and more so that yours so I'm not having a pop)

in this exact spot, id just open ship 22-77 and r-c 88. although the maths say 88 is super super close and im probably more peely than most here, although lets say im just normal mtt arriner then  id probably go with 88plus for rc and open rip 22-66.

none maybe KQ i guess but w/e, but i dont think he jams much worse either, i may be looking at this through tinted glasses sorta thing because i peel in pads shoes alot of the hands i used to jam with (the stuff your range dominates) as people play too perfectly vs min raises/rejams etc imo.


also ftr my reply looks alot more arrogant than i intended, apologies if it seemed that way.

if you were to be arrogant id expect you to be right :p

sigh interwebs/my typing, nh etc

Fairly interesting I guess. The pay jumps aren't significant until the last 3 because it's a small field. There are most definitely ICM considerations but the ICM factor is lower because of the shallow payouts. Psychologically people won't be inclined to make a tight fold because of the smallness of the payouts compared to say the big 22 where the pay jumps are very significant compared to the buy-in; because of this people shouldn't (and probably don't) make big folds.

55 is obviously so awesome to have here, if you have a fiddle with numbers I'm sure you can make really wide 3bet jams profitable here and I imagine that the button won't be folding around 66+ (no jokes). Even if 66 were close, people are gonna make stubborn calls anyway.

66+ AT+ sorta range?

really villain dependant on as to whether we are loving life that much with 55. in this spot 90% of my opening range here im calling off with others may only be calling 10% of their opening range, and carry on with their normal button opening wideness.

So you're opening like 8% of your range on the btn here? Not sure I believe that.

If you opened 30% and only called off 10% of your range then unless you are getting 3bet jammed on around 70% of the time you can show a profit. This is all in a nutshell and forgetting the times you get peeled and stuff, but don't think you need to open joke tight here.

doubt im getting opens through a lot at all in this spot

Think I'm calling off with 88+/AJo+ in this spot, not sure about KQ, but I'm not opening particularly wide here either