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Armenia 5/4!
Sweden 6/1
Norway 8/1
Hungary 12/1
Belgium 14/1
Azerbaijan 16/1
Denmark 16/1
UK 20/1
Ukraine 20/1
Russia 20/1
33 Bar

Early thoughts...

Like Iceland to qualify among the bigger prices.

Will take both Norway and Denmark over Sweden in match bets. Denmark is such a happy number and a lot of the others this year are heavy going.

Won't be taking on Armenia in the outright market and won't be backing it either at current prices. Had an absurd number of youtube views compared to the others.

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ChkJpnOgIwQ

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pd_UmcGAui4

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CZiLWCNakPc

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KRHKkYrXSjM

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TwfGKEIn5xw

Who's career are the UK ruining this year Chomp's?

Some bird called Molly who's singing a disjointed number.

Price is holding up well for now but the inevitable slide towards three figures will start before long. Mid-div for us this year imo.

FML.

Just when I thought the day could not get worse.

Azerbaijan are available at 27/1 on Betfair as I type.
They joined Eurovision in 2008. Their record is 8th, 3rd, 5th, 1st, 4th, 2nd.
Azerbaijan is an oil rich country that spends a lot of money abroad promoting themselves as 'The Land of Fire', much as the oil rich countries do in the Middle East.
The Eurovision is one of their favourite things and is the most watched programme on Azeri tv despite being on after midnight, due to time differences.

So they spend a lot of thier entries, getting very professional acts and production. That's all great but the great thing is, they cheat. The votes are 50% from national juries and 50% from phone votes. They bribe the national juries and they recruit networks of people to do the phone voting. Money is no object.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7ojSKQamf-E (cut to about 7min in but it's all a bit boring)
The Eurovision has said they will ban countries who are found to be engaged in cheating but meh, I don't think they just want to be seen to be doing the right thing and really want to sweep it under the carpet.

Oh, the song? Yeah, who cares but here it is anyway. Not great but they cheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeat so it doesn't matter :)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ipQswujA5gw

Weakest Azerbaijan entry for a few years, but take your points.

Surprised that Crimea asked to join Russia after declaring independence - could have had a run at Eurovision.

Italy available at 2.24 to finish top ten. They have managed this every year since the semi finals have been introduced in 2004.

She's scary but course and distance form rules.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Si9K0ChHzDI

Somehow or other Poland have managed more than 40,000,000 views on youtube.

donatan my slowianie.

No idea why though, must be down to the cleveage shots. Song confirmed terrible.

I could only see 136k hits on the Poland clip
Hate countries that don't sing in there own language
But uk obviously have no chance as I like the song

Nope, it's definitely over 40m

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rr1DSgjhRqE

Conchita Wurst from Austria:

YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToqNa0rqUtYYouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xMbtsbXvZ6I

ah i was looking at the eurovision link 157k now
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syMhJMmGEIc

Thought it didn't sound too bad in Polish. Bits of it reminded me of Prince Charming. Gruesome in English though.

http://www.oddschecker.com/tv/eurovision/winner

Armenia 6/4 with Boyles odds on with plenty of firms. 2.34 with bf. Any good Chompy?

Looks like Armenia are having a good old driff at the moment. Odds-on was crazy tbf and think 6/4 will be beaten on the week.

Sweden are tightening up against them and 7/2 with Skieeeee in the without Armenia market is obv value.

I'm not mad about the Sweden song, though, and will just be backing Denmark and Norway against it in match bets.

Bump.

Just seen the first semi final is tonight (tuesday).

Not done any research yet.

Will most likely follow what the chompster tips up.

Anyone else have any bets yet?

Definitely opposing Armenia - fella's voice can't seem to cut it live.

Armenia ripe for a top-five lay on tonight's evidence. Doesn't work live and an early draw will see it drift hard imo.

Sweden deserves to be favourite.

Azerbaijan a lot stronger than I thought first time round.

Still liking Iceland to qualify. Oi oi, Red Hot Chili Peppers meet They Might Be Giants. There's at least four no channers, so we're pretty much perming ten from 12.

There is nobody in the UK that knows more about the Eurovision than me.

LOL

I've had a nibble at Albania to go through.

I can't have Iceland - every hipster in Rekjavik seems to have been rounded up for their band.

Poor Tighty will never hear the end of that.

It's the new blonde catchphrase.

Very impressed by Hungary.

Not convinced by those at the top of the market. Think this might be the bet, but still got Thu semi to go obv.

Think Belgian chunky lad singing about his mummy could be in danger among the very short prices here.

Story checks out

Oi oi!

Massive sweat though. One spot left, seven going for it.

San Marino through! Yikes!

I'll be watching it in a pub on Saturday - Chompy shall I just give you my Betfair login to cut out the middleman?

Aah, them were the days.

Much clearer now for Saturday than I was before tonight. Think there are a few bets to be had this year.

Cheers Chomps for the Iceland to qualify tip! :)

I came across this organisation of Eurovision fans clubs in various countries;
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/OGAE
They have an annual vote on their favourtite song and they've pretty heavily chosen Sweden this year. They have picked the winner in 3 of the last 5 years.


Country                                   OGAE result (votes)
1. Sweden                                         354
2. Hungary                                    262
3. Israel                                            233
4. Austria                                       221
5. United Kingdom                              162


Perhaps of most interest is Israel + Austria as they are 12/5 + 7/4 respectively just to be top 10.

sigh just going to post to say bet on hungary. know the guy, hes incred, very, very good. sorry for aftertiming, i didnt bet or anything.

Still 12/1 if you want to get involved, Pads!

Sweden a worthy fav for me.

Have weighed in each way (top 4) with spoils@11-4 which is a stand out price, don't see it lasting long.

Armenia def likely to be a small place lay for me, could not believe that was the original fav, very drab.

Really liked Israel song, especially for the shoehorning in of unlikely rhyming couplets, even by eurovision standards - but I can't see them winning because surely Israel are one of the most unpopular countries in the contest? Sweden prob goiing to win imo

When is the draw for the singing order?

They'll decide after tonight

http://www.eurovision.tv/page/news?id=grand_final_running_order_to_be_revealed_tonight

Like Austria to win tonight's semi @ 100-30 with Spoilsports.

It's a great song - very Bond themey, and Russell Brand sings it very well. I managed to get a bit on at 19 for the whole thing after dawdling meant I missed 24. Now 11 and the big mover from tonight.

Be surprised if Lithuania (6-4) qualify

The more I hear that Austrian song the more I like it - hoping it's not just an effect of the fact this was certainly the weaker semi

Paddy Power have Austria joint favs with Sweden at 3/1 after being 25/1 this morning.

Obv not everyone is watching Youtube in March.

Getting close to 5/1 each of four now, Sweden, Armenia, Netherlands and Austria.

Austria are only 6/4 to get a draw in the second half, so every chance they'll be on the slide again soon.

Also, a lot of the countries voting tonight were western and it's probably not going to go down as well in the east.

Sweden, Armenia and Austria in the first half of the draw, Netherlands second half. Austria were last out of the hat and lost a flip v Finland.

That's bad - no one's won from the first half in ten years.

Had a punt E/W on Hungary at 16/1 as they're in the 2nd half and I just cannot have that Dutch song getting anywhere.

I quite liked the Norway song.

Surprised to see they've drifted to 75's on the machine from 28's earlier.

Presume they got a bad draw. Still seems on large side to me.

Running order for final...

1.Ukraine
2.Belarus
3.Azerbaijan
4.Iceland
5.Norway
6.Romania
7.Armenia
8.Montenegro
9.Poland
10.Greece
11.Austria
12.Germany
13.Sweden
14.France
15.Russia
16.Italy
17.Slovenia
18.Finland
19.Spain
20.Switzerland
21.Hungary
22.Malta
23.Denmark
24.The Netherlands
25.San Marino
26.United Kingdom

Interesting angle this Eastern European one.

Dana International won easily but got zeroes from three countries, Croatia, Slovenia and Hungary, who are all neighbours.

I'd be wondering how Austria will go down in the likes of Belarus, Ukraine, Russia etc.

Remind me, going last is a good thing for UK right?

Absolute last not so much - by then most people will have picked a favourite and the Uk may suffer in comparison.

The sweet spot is 17-20 - half the winners since 2000 have come from there, through this year that section doesn't look too strong, though Hungary are 21st

Austria now 3/1. Insane plunge. Can't back it at that sort of price but wouldn't want to lay either.

The voting order is up.

1.Azerbaijan: (Sabina Babayeva)
2.Greece: (Andrianna Maggania)
3.Poland : (Pauliana Chylewska)
4.Albania: (Andri Xhahu)
5.San Marino: ( Michele Perniola)
6.Denmark: (Sofie Lassen-Kahlke)
7.Montenegro: (Tijana Miskovic)
8.Romania: (Sonia Argint Ionescu)
9.Russia: (Alsou)
10.Netherlands: (Tim Douwsma)
11.Malta: (Valentina Rossi)
12.France: (Elodie Suigo)
13.United Kingdom (Scott Mills)
14.Latvia: (Ralfs Eilands)
15.Armenia: (Anna Avanesyan)
16.Iceland: (Benedikt Valsson)
17.F.Y.R. Macedonia (Marko Mark)
18.Sweden: (Alcazar)
19.Belarus: (Alyona Lanskaya)
20.Germany: (Helene Fischer)
21.Israel: (Ofer Nachshon)
22.Portugal: (Joana Teles)
23.Norway: (Margrethe Røed)
24.Estonia: (Lauri Pihlap)
25.Hungary: (Éva Novodomszky)
26.Moldova: (Olivia Furtuna)
27.Ireland: (Nicky Byrne)
28.Finland: (Redrama)
29.Lithuania: (Ignas Krupavičius)
30.Austria: (Kati Bellowitsch)
31.Spain: (Carolina Casado)
32.Belgium: (Angelique Vlieghe)
33.Italy: (Linus)
34.Ukraine: (Zlata Ognevich)
35.Switzerland: (Kurt Aeschbacher)
36.Georgia: (Nodi Tatishvili and Sophi Gelovani)
37.Slovenia: (Ula Furlan)

Azer, Poles and Albania three of the first four to vote. Think we'll quickly have an idea of how Austria will do.

I'm not sure we can lay Austria knowing who's going up with her/him when he/she wins.

(http://i1240.photobucket.com/albums/gg486/rubbish247/BnRQdbpIUAANWkp_zpscc117915.jpg) (http://s1240.photobucket.com/user/rubbish247/media/BnRQdbpIUAANWkp_zpscc117915.jpg.html)

:)

Is that Georgios Samaras defected to Austria? 

Austria price is coming in 3.35 now!

Loving Mr Moustache

How was that 250s??!

Because France I think. Hard for a song on French to win maybe?

Really like Iceland, Romania and Greece so far. Austria also v good.

I know the song is kinda rubbish (aren't they always?) but Azerbaijan Top 10 @ 8/11 looks a bet to me. Never been worse than 8th since joining and they spend silly money promoting the entries and guaranteed votes from a bunch of neighbours.

Quite liked:

Spain, Finland, Malta and Greece so far. 

Don't know how likely it is that someone wins two years in a row but this Danish song has a huge shout.

Quite liking Denmark as well.  Sounds a bit Bruno Mars-esque

Are Austria a lay at < 2/1?

Denmark was very good....by comparison. This dutch thing is drab in contrast. how is it third fav????

Seems wide open this year, should be a decent spread of the points so be fun to watch the voting. Could well be a shock on the way to make the markets look silly.

Jeez, ours is dreadful.

I think as a 'song written to punt at Eurovision' it's actually pretty clever. Would prolly lay it being top ten tho. ;)

UK out to about 40s on betty. Pleased to know Im not alone on this one..

I laid it for top ten as soon as Molly made it clear she'd left her singing boots at home.

2.16 - all aboard the Austria express!!

Hungary is fav by a long way. Gotta give it to the Polish for being pure filth.

It does seem to have settled on an efficient market - on this final run through Austria and Sweden are the two best songs in the competition.

Austria.. Really?  a man with a beard dressed as a woman. Or was it a woman with a beard dressed as a woman. Im lost

Should say my fav..

Sweden was deece as well. Rest pretty much complete garbage imo.

Heh

 rotflmfao


worrying

How should you vote?

(https://pbs.twimg.com/media/BnTcW_7IgAEHnCV.png)

Only 1 for Austria from the Azeris

#sweating

Graham Norton is fine form again.

Atmosphere with Russia picking up points is horrid though, those two girls are only bairns.

Nice of Armenia to get Daniel Negreanu to announce their results

This voting is all over the place - could go anywhere yet.

Is this the weirdest voting ever?

And Romania are announcing their results from outside the Bellagio

Hollllllld.

This is the most exciting voting for many a year - usually by now we know who is going to win.

top six on Betfair at the start of voting are the current top six

LOL, Andrew T and Chompy must have sore fingers.

Want just about everything to hold right now

Why is it still light in places with similar timezones?!

Worst was netherlands its midnight there yet was pure daylight this is meant to be live right?

He was inside. TV-Magic ;)

Skype connection to Belarus a bit sketchy mind.

Should go back to voting by juries.

Think Austria is home and hosed now - now sweating on Hungary for 4th.

though of course as soon as I say this they hit the next couple of fences hard and pitch down on landing.

Nice work Andrew T. I shall retire for the evening knowing the world is still going to hell in a handcart. WP

Do countries change their votes when they see which way it is going. Seemed random to start with now mainly top3 get top 3?

Curses to my slow fingers.

No - all votes are locked in before any are announced.

Well done Andrew.

Top tippage, wish I'd looked at thread before tonight!

At one point I actually blew kisses to the TV when Conchita was on.

I've also landed a few darts on Norway, Spain and Russia for top ten so it's been a very fun night.

top work on Austria. conchita was hilarious in the green room

having missed austria i landed netherlands e/w, very nice surprise, folky nice tune that got more votes than i feared earlier

Almost forgot this one - so much chirping at chez AndrewT tonight. Won a monkey all in - and all because the girl I'm seeing's mother got ill today so our night in a pub watching this was cancelled.

I know I said this last year but the clues are there so early on - everything's up on Youtube in March. Even the Dutch song (which I was so against for ages) I found myself singing along to by the end.

Ahem!

1966: Austria won the Eurovision,England the World Cup,Liverpool the Old Division 1, Atletico Madrid la Liga,Real Madrid the European Cup...

This was a winner - Netherlands won the other semi.

Austria won their semi very easily - they got either 12 or 10 from all but 4 countries. Oddly, they got their lowest score from Germany.

Some massive discreps between jury votes and phone votes in some countries. Had it been phone voting early Austria would have won by a huge margin.

Before the semi-finals, Armenia was favourite ahead of Sweden. Austria and the Netherlands were both decent double figures.

After the first semi, Sweden was favourite and The Netherlands' price had crashed.

After the second semi, Austria had gone from mid 20s into favouritism.

By the time voting started on the big night, Austria were 2.2, Sweden were 4, Netherlands were 6.6 and it was any price you like bar three. Armenia had gone from slight odds-on to 50-1 shots.

The result went pretty much exactly as the market predicted.

Just lol. Seems to be a lot of extremely good judges out there...

The Eastern European theory re: Austria was proved just about right.

Belarus gave them 0, Azerbaijan 1, Armenia 0, Montenegro 2, Poland 0, Macedonia 3, Estonia 4, Russia 5.

Still nowhere near enough to get it beaten though.