Title: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 04:57:17 PM Looks like Paul Carberry could be injured after a fall today so that could be a big blow for Monbeg Dude as he takes a lot of work and knowing. Does anyone know if Zara Philips has an Amateur licence?
I'm on Burton Port along with a good few others after our very own racing guru BigAdz was singing its praises when the weights were announced and took a little each way on Big Shu paying 6 places. What are we on guys, will be nice to sweat a few other people's bets when mine can't win. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 04, 2014, 04:58:21 PM Guy on radio says paul should be fit
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 05:01:35 PM Guy on radio says paul should be fit ok, cheers Ironside. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 05:01:54 PM Guy on radio says paul should be fit What you on Iron? Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 05:10:08 PM Very latest news on the jockeys: Fehily and Tinkler will have to pass the doctor in the morning, Carberry has been taken for X-rays to a suspected pelvis injury and Fogarty has been taken to hospital for 'further assessment'. We are told Carberry believes he will be fine to ride tomorrow - but let's not forget that Daryl Jacob thought the same despite his serious multiple injuries sustained at Cheltenham.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 04, 2014, 05:33:57 PM I've not had a bet yet, Phil, & I'm not sure I will, Fred apart, I don't much enjoy betting on the National. I thought teaforthree ran a nice quiet prep race@ Cheltenham, but his price looks way too tight for me. I may just swerve the race. Fred has re-ignited my betting habits, but I've not reached the "I have to have a bet" stage. yet. Give me time, mind..... Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 05:42:31 PM yes Teaforthree looks strong, didn't look to quite get home last year to me but that might be a bit harsh. I wouldn't be amazed if summat else went off fav. I had a small bet Long Run to go off fav at 5/1 but could have seen Monbeg Dude being fav given the royal connection if the jock is fit.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 05:50:10 PM Have you ever attended the National Tony?
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Omm on April 04, 2014, 05:53:43 PM Apart from Adz scoop I've had a little tinkle on Prince De Beauchene, The Package and Balthazar King. Only small ones for interest. Will give the kids a few quid each as usual. Let's get them home safe and sound being the main thing.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: TightEnd on April 04, 2014, 05:57:29 PM yes Teaforthree looks strong, didn't look to quite get home last year to me but that might be a bit harsh. I wouldn't be amazed if summat else went off fav. I had a small bet Long Run to go off fav at 5/1 but could have seen Monbeg Dude being fav given the royal connection if the jock is fit. i think a couple of hours ago you could get 11/4 teaforthree not starting favourite forget where, but thought that was a huge price Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 04, 2014, 05:57:31 PM Have you ever attended the National Tony? No, never. Can't be doing with crowds these days. Been to Chelters scores of times for the GC, Epsom for the Derby, Longchamp on Arc Day, a Cup Final, a F1 GP, Wimbledon, most stuff really, but the Grand National has never, even in my degen betting days, floated any boats for me. I had a huge bet on a lovely horse called Alverton to win the GN, think it was trained by one of the Easterby's, who was a bit of a cheat back in the day, & it started quite a short priced jolly. It fell & was killed instantly, & I've rarely had a bet or even watched the GN since then. I need to research when that was now. Bet it was in the 70's. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: TightEnd on April 04, 2014, 05:58:48 PM Have you ever attended the National Tony? No, never. Can't be doing with crowds these days. Been to Chelters scores of times for the GC, Epsom for the Derby, Longchamp on Arc Day, a Cup Final, a F1 GP, Wimbledon, most stuff really, but the Grand National has never, even in my degen betting days, floated any boats for me. I had a huge bet on a lovely horse called Alverton to win the GN, think it was trained by one of the Easterby's, who was a bit of a cheat back in the day, & it started quite a short priced jolly. It fell & was killed instantly, & I've rarely had a bet or even watched the GN since then. I need to research when that was now. Bet it was in the 70's. 1979. i had my pocket money on it fell at bechers first time round. remember it vividly Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Doobs on April 04, 2014, 05:59:51 PM Burton Port and Big Shu for me too. Keep looking at Long Run, so chances are that will be backed too.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 04, 2014, 06:01:00 PM Am yet to complete my whittling, but I'm likely going >20/1 only because:
1) It's a pinsticker race; 2) I'm a punter at heart, and above all 3) I want the back patting that comes with a tasty price winner Prince de Beauchene The Package Pineau de Re Swing Bill That's the current shortlist... I drew Vesper Bell in the office sweepstake, so I'd better have a couple of pound each way Expensive business Title: Re: Grand National Post by: BigAdz on April 04, 2014, 06:03:35 PM Burton Port and Big Shu for me too. Keep looking at Long Run, so chances are that will be backed too. This, and got the 25s on Tidal and Long Run a few times the day Laddies were generous. Also on Rainbow Hunter and Across the Bay. 6 horses FTW!! Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 04, 2014, 06:04:51 PM Have you ever attended the National Tony? No, never. Can't be doing with crowds these days. Been to Chelters scores of times for the GC, Epsom for the Derby, Longchamp on Arc Day, a Cup Final, a F1 GP, Wimbledon, most stuff really, but the Grand National has never, even in my degen betting days, floated any boats for me. I had a huge bet on a lovely horse called Alverton to win the GN, think it was trained by one of the Easterby's, who was a bit of a cheat back in the day, & it started quite a short priced jolly. It fell & was killed instantly, & I've rarely had a bet or even watched the GN since then. I need to research when that was now. Bet it was in the 70's. 1979. i had my pocket money on it fell at bechers first time round. remember it vividly That sounds about right, & yes, it was @ Bechers. 35 years ago, sheesh, where did the years go? Alverton was a VERY smart chaser indeed. I have the '79 Timeform Chasers & Hurdlers Annual somewhere, I'll have to go find his rating now. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Simon Galloway on April 04, 2014, 06:04:56 PM Double Seven for some ice creamery here
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 04, 2014, 06:13:09 PM Ha, here's a memory for you, Alverton (ridden by Jonjo) winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, after likely winner Tied Cottage (Carberry) fell at the last. YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxfhaccjOM I backed Alverton that day. A 35 year aftertime, even Adzy can't beat that. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: redsimon on April 04, 2014, 06:18:32 PM Had a nibble on Balthazar King but my recent form in national picks is FFFFF
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Karabiner on April 04, 2014, 06:21:40 PM Ha, here's a memory for you, Alverton (ridden by Jonjo) winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, after likely winner Tied Cottage (Carberry) fell at the last. YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxfhaccjOM I backed Alverton that day. A 35 year aftertime, even Adzy can't beat that. Tied Cottage led all of the way in that GC and looked to be a certain winner until it tipped up at the last, however it came back the following year and led all the way with no mishaps and won easily iirc. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Karabiner on April 04, 2014, 06:23:53 PM I'm considering dabbling on Triolo D'Alene and Rocky Creek.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 04, 2014, 06:28:07 PM Ha, here's a memory for you, Alverton (ridden by Jonjo) winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, after likely winner Tied Cottage (Carberry) fell at the last. YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxfhaccjOM I backed Alverton that day. A 35 year aftertime, even Adzy can't beat that. Tied Cottage led all of the way in that GC and looked to be a certain winner until it tipped up at the last, however it came back the following year and led all the way with no mishaps and won easily iirc. Correct. And a month after he won the GC, Alverton was killed at Aintree. Karabiner was still in his mid-fifties at the time, I'd guess. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 06:52:31 PM Have you ever attended the National Tony? No, never. Can't be doing with crowds these days. Been to Chelters scores of times for the GC, Epsom for the Derby, Longchamp on Arc Day, a Cup Final, a F1 GP, Wimbledon, most stuff really, but the Grand National has never, even in my degen betting days, floated any boats for me. I had a huge bet on a lovely horse called Alverton to win the GN, think it was trained by one of the Easterby's, who was a bit of a cheat back in the day, & it started quite a short priced jolly. It fell & was killed instantly, & I've rarely had a bet or even watched the GN since then. I need to research when that was now. Bet it was in the 70's. What are your best memories of those Trips? Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 06:53:06 PM Burton Port and Big Shu for me too. Keep looking at Long Run, so chances are that will be backed too. I very much hope you back the winner Doobs. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Karabiner on April 04, 2014, 06:55:35 PM Ha, here's a memory for you, Alverton (ridden by Jonjo) winning the Cheltenham Gold Cup, after likely winner Tied Cottage (Carberry) fell at the last. YouTube: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kAxfhaccjOM I backed Alverton that day. A 35 year aftertime, even Adzy can't beat that. Tied Cottage led all of the way in that GC and looked to be a certain winner until it tipped up at the last, however it came back the following year and led all the way with no mishaps and won easily iirc. Correct. And a month after he won the GC, Alverton was killed at Aintree. Karabiner was still in his mid-fifties at the time, I'd guess. There was only two weeks between Cheltenham and Aintree in those days Tony. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 04, 2014, 06:57:56 PM i have no idea who is running and riding apart from what i heard on radio today will likely put on a £5 ew bet on some ~16-1 shot tomorrow morning if i am up in time to watch the saints get hammered by man shity
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 04, 2014, 06:58:46 PM Am yet to complete my whittling, but I'm likely going >20/1 only because: 1) It's a pinsticker race; 2) I'm a punter at heart, and above all 3) I want the back patting that comes with a tasty price winner Prince de Beauchene The Package Pineau de Re Swing Bill That's the current shortlist... I drew Vesper Bell in the office sweepstake, so I'd better have a couple of pound each way Expensive business The Package shortened 7 points on BF this afternoon after both Holywell and Ma Filleule won to give his form a strong boost. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 04, 2014, 07:37:10 PM Am yet to complete my whittling, but I'm likely going >20/1 only because: 1) It's a pinsticker race; 2) I'm a punter at heart, and above all 3) I want the back patting that comes with a tasty price winner Prince de Beauchene The Package Pineau de Re Swing Bill That's the current shortlist... I drew Vesper Bell in the office sweepstake, so I'd better have a couple of pound each way Expensive business The Package shortened 7 points on BF this afternoon after Tal suggested he might be backing it. FYP Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 05, 2014, 12:22:33 AM i heard on radio the average price of winner is 22.x
average price of recent winners is 44.x Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 05, 2014, 12:34:23 AM ok thinking of making my bets on national now
2 questions whats better 19.0 with 4 places paid or 17.0 with 5 places paid (each way betting) and do we get BOG if we bet this early? Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Eso Kral on April 05, 2014, 08:24:26 AM Just the 3 for me that Adz put up ages ago with Burton Port decent EW bet at the big price advised plus T43 and Tidal Bay as win only.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tonytats on April 05, 2014, 08:50:09 AM Big schu pineau de re monbeg dude e/w with a tri cast combo plus bit e/w on double 7 gl everybody
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Marky147 on April 05, 2014, 12:16:18 PM Burton Port, Tea For Three, and Pineau were early bets.
Added Alvarado and Lion Na Bearnai last week, and got the scattergun out ready for a couple massive priced Betfair punts Title: Re: Grand National Post by: peejaytwo on April 05, 2014, 12:19:10 PM Not only are VC six places on the National, they are the same on their Faller Insurance market ! That could be a monumental ricket !
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: pokerfan on April 05, 2014, 12:32:10 PM BV paying 6 too.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 05, 2014, 12:53:27 PM BV and VC are the same fella, no?
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: tikay on April 05, 2014, 01:05:45 PM BV and VC are the same fella, no? The answer to that oddly-constructed question is "yes", no? Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 05, 2014, 01:15:36 PM BV and VC are the same fella, no? The answer to that oddly-constructed question is "yes", no? (http://www.sitcom.co.uk/vicar_dibley/graphics/char_jim.jpg) Title: Re: Grand National Post by: scotty2hatty on April 05, 2014, 02:02:40 PM Go on the Shu
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 02:19:19 PM 2 small ew darts on Raz de maree and Vintage star added to the team.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 03:33:24 PM Monbeg Dude 14.5 yesterday afternoon now 40/1 on BF which might suggest all is not well.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: AndrewT on April 05, 2014, 03:34:14 PM A winning team assembled of Teaforthree, Shakalakaboomboom, Burton Port, Big Shu and a dart at One in a Milan, all with half my money back already thanks to confirmed ice-cream status at Bet365.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 03:38:35 PM good luck mate, behind my horses, the kids and the Mrs and Doobs and Adz who are on the same as mine I hope yours run well ( esp BP and the Big Shu)
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 05, 2014, 03:53:23 PM mr moonshine got to work out where i am going to place my bet though looking for best odds but might just open a VC account to get 6 places for EW
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tonji on April 05, 2014, 04:02:16 PM ZERO knowledge on the gee-gees, so my bet is on the best named horse. Shakalakaboomboom :D Title: Re: Grand National Post by: DaveShoelace on April 05, 2014, 04:05:31 PM Teaforthree
Vesper bell Any grey horse I know sod all about horses, but have already spent my winnings in my head. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 05, 2014, 04:14:02 PM ok put £40 on betvictor as they are offering 1/4 odds top 6
picked 4 horses and put £5ew on them all need 2 to finish in the top 6 or 1 winner 16:15 MR MOONSHINE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 25/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return: 166.25 16:15 THE PACKAGE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return: 110.00 16:15 MONBEG DUDE (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 20/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return: 135.00 16:15 ROCKY CREEK (EW) (Horse Racing Outright - Race) Odds: 16/1 Stake: 10.00 Possible Return: 110.00 Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 04:16:21 PM good luck chaps.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Omm on April 05, 2014, 04:18:05 PM All done half the field backed. Let's go.
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Ironside on April 05, 2014, 04:44:08 PM 3 fences to go i had the leading 2 and the other 2 were in with a shout think i might just have gotten 6th spot for £20 back
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: BigAdz on April 05, 2014, 04:45:30 PM Abso disaster.
All mine fell or taken out before first circuit over. Note to self. Don't waste your time and effort next year!!! lol Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 05, 2014, 04:53:38 PM Abso disaster. All mine fell or taken out before first circuit over. Note to self. Don't waste your time and effort next year!!! lol Mugs' game, Adz. (http://24.media.tumblr.com/6b56139007de2b135a7b2d66c7ea5734/tumblr_mrdt82RnLL1suvmcoo1_500.gif) First time I've picked the national winner in fifteen years. Variance ftw! Title: Re: Grand National Post by: BigAdz on April 05, 2014, 04:57:39 PM You mean to say you used sample size to get the winner eh mate?! ;)
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 04:58:06 PM drinks are on Tal well done mate, main bets were out of the race by the 3rd and to top it off Long Run went of fav on BF but pretty sure it wasn't the fixed odds fav. :-X
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: Tal on April 05, 2014, 04:59:57 PM You mean to say you used sample size to get the winner eh mate?! ;) I was at home when I picked it, too Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 05:02:29 PM drinks are on Tal well done mate, main bets were out of the race by the 3rd and to top it off Long Run went of fav on BF but pretty sure it wasn't the fixed odds fav. :-X Double seven's Betfair SP was 22.4 and was 10/1 jt fav fixed odds! Title: Re: Grand National Post by: George2Loose on April 05, 2014, 05:06:04 PM Which horse for run off the course? That was pretty sick!
Title: Re: Grand National Post by: arbboy on April 05, 2014, 05:07:08 PM drinks are on Tal well done mate, main bets were out of the race by the 3rd and to top it off Long Run went of fav on BF but pretty sure it wasn't the fixed odds fav. :-X Double seven's Betfair SP was 22.4 and was 10/1 jt fav fixed odds! Very strange betting patterns close to the off on that horse. It drifted to 20.0 then back into 15.0 then out to 25.0 all within the last 10 mins before the start. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: bobby1 on April 05, 2014, 05:25:48 PM drinks are on Tal well done mate, main bets were out of the race by the 3rd and to top it off Long Run went of fav on BF but pretty sure it wasn't the fixed odds fav. :-X Double seven's Betfair SP was 22.4 and was 10/1 jt fav fixed odds! Very strange betting patterns close to the off on that horse. It drifted to 20.0 then back into 15.0 then out to 25.0 all within the last 10 mins before the start. yes, it was one I had in to lay at 12 and didn't get matched then ended up laying a little bigger. Was loads asking to bet it at 17.5 3-4 mins before the off, it went in 2 points and then drifted 7. tbf it did look short after the McCoy mount money but that was very swingy wasn't it. MD the same 14.5 yesterday out to 40 and ended up with a BF SP of 25 after lots of late money. I think there is a problem with these big race markets on BF in that there aren't enough people laying and the outsiders don't have enough cash available to bet so some of those prices collapse and keep getting shorter, then in the 5-10 mins before the off the layers realise they have got a lot of the bigger ones in late and start trying to tidy up their books. Our Father BF sp was 29, was a solid 60 about 25 mins before the off Quito de le roc 60 Walkon 54 Mountainous 49 One in a Milan 79 Hunt Ball 66 Rose of the moon 65 Vesper Bell 46!! Twirling magnet somehow had a BF SP of 50 Al of those collapsed in the run to the start. 5 of the front 6 drifted in the moments before the off as I guess the ones that are laying in size are now all looking to lay different horses to balance the books. Title: Re: Grand National Post by: redsimon on April 05, 2014, 06:32:47 PM Had a nibble on Balthazar King but my recent form in national picks is FFFFF at least i broke my bad streak, ew betting aftertiming alert :D |