blonde poker forum

Live cash 5/10 My image is TAG, only showdown I've had Aces.

EP limp, I iso 7c 6c to 40, get callers from the button, blinds and the limper, so 5 ways.

Flop (200) 9c 5c 4h

Checks to me, I bet 140, btn calls, bb folds, sb calls, limper calls!

Turn (760) Qh

Sb leads for 550, limper folds, I call, btn folds

River (1860) 9d

Sb checks. He has 2500 back, I cover.

TURN He never flats sets on the flop, unlikely 54 but possible, so basically his only value hand here is Q9 and Qx clubs. There's a heart flush draw which he might have picked up with A9hh for example. Other hands are hands like KJcc, JTcc, A4cc. Given our fd is dominated sometimes that could be an argument for folding the turn, but we can bluff most of his range on brick rivers, and have 7 clean outs to the nuts, with some implied odds if he does have a value hand like Q9. I can also hero fold some club rivers fairly confidently, depending on his river action. Interested to hear if people would fold here though.

RIVER Q9 is possible but really unlikely, both combinatorically and why would he check the river, given my hand looks like AA/KK a lot - i really didn't think he was strong in any case. Narrowing his range to Qx cc and other missed draws basically. Assuming he folds all missed draws to any size within reason, and never folds if he doesn't happen to have A9hh or Q9, 44/55, what's the optimal bet size, to get him off Qx cc / A4cc?

I can see merits / problems with small, medium and large sizings! Thoughts?

edit: whoops

Thoughts on raising the turn? The only hand to REALLY worry about running into is AQ/KQ/QJ cc and you can legit rep a so everything (even maybe 95s) feels like you might have a fair bit of fold equity.

I think you do have to bluff this river somehow, I'd go somewhere like 1000 - 1200 as you can rep a little wider (AQ or KQ etc) I know your turn range has a lot of draws but does have Qx and 9x enough so most river spots where your range defo has some value and you have exactly 0 showdown value I'd lean towards bluffing very, very often.

Also stop getting to the river with 6 and 7 high in big pots every time you punter :-p

Say all in and throw the dealer a tip. They'll love it.

I like showing the turn I think. People can hero fold better hands (obv) and dress that re doing very well vs us and we have e reverse implied odds against.

On e river I don't know why we'd ever shove, seems pretty random we just want him to fold out better draws so I'd just bet 785 or something

I think he bets a 9 virtually always on the riverand would never fold a 9 himself on the turn, so in his mind we always have a 9 when we bet so big.

Think he's just gonna punt it in with a big draw though, not folding Qx cc etc

Obv never folding it but Qx Xc v small part of his range though imo