blonde poker forum

Hero Stack:12000
Villain Stack 7200

Blinds 100/200 no ante villain opens utg to 450 folds to us on the button with  Kd Kc we make it 1150 folds to OR dont have stats but is a winning reg, and peels. flop  Qc 9s 4h ck we cbet 1200 villain calls. turn is a  Qd ck ck river is a  5h.  Villain cks we bet 2350, villain moves all in for 5750.

Call or fold?

If he bets he's prob gonna make a lot of stuff fold.

When you bet river your range is so obv AA KK JJ a lot and he knows you're likely to be these. I just don't imagine he expects you to fold these hands given these stacks so just fold. If he's bluffing you then considered yourself schooled.

Think dan is spot on. I might just bet 1.1k on the river and see what happens. I don't see him ever not having you beat but always gonna be some rofling going on.

yeh river sizing id either jam or bet 888, to get hero calls and bluffs respectively.

I was going to say jam but it's close. We have to assume his range is a lot of AQ JJ TT 99. I highly doubt he would check the river with a BS hand like JT, KJ or AK.

I just don't think he jams over your bet with JJ and TT to warrant bet calling. Checking would be bad though.

Thanks for replies, I was actually Hero in this hand and I turned  Jh Js into a bluff here.  The guy called relatively quickly and I really hated the call.
Spoke to a few friends about it and one didnt like the line but i thought giving up the pot vs a capped range here when we have lots of qx and houses.  One argued that I would lead all my value hands on the river but vs range I think there is 0 point in leading any value hands OTR

Nah I wouldn't lead with my value hands here either, I am deffo check raising my q's and 9's full in the hope he feels he's committed and calls.

I don't expect many people to be folding vs your jam here, people just get tilted with betting in the first place and reluctantly call it off so I'd need to be doing it vs a reg I play a lot vs.

I played a very similar hand but it was with antes and not quite as deep so ranges not necessarily as tight. I'd been playing really tight and 3b from CO with A4cc vs UTG+1 open and he peeled. Flop QJx two clubs, I cbet he calls. Pairs the Queen check check, river blank and I bombed about 1.2x pot and got snapped by tens. Pretty fuming. Think that was the first time I didn't have aces there.

Did you have any reads on the 3bettor? I think the read you posted was villains impression of yourself if i've followed it correctly.

Thread is clearly an elaborate "I'm a winning reg" brag by OP

I agree that you'd most likely lead a Qx OTR, I int think a 9 is gonna bet/call but might call a bet, the two hands you might get action from a c/r is KK and AA but he doesn't nessercarily check the turn back with those.

Definitely not leading Qx. The 3bettors range is heavily AQ AK JJ+ and some bluffs right? When we check I expect most people to bet the river with these hands. I don't think I lead anything unless I believe I can make him raise bluffs by betting small, by check raising it gives most people a chance to make a mistake by calling me on the river because I usually have it. As it happens, I think OP played JJ well, it's just seems like he chose the wrong opponent this time.

Villain can also call us with aq/ak that will check back 100%

You think anyone in history has checked back AQ here? AK folding or checking anyway.

Sorry I mean ak/other ace highs.

It's q94q5

We're perceived to be value betting qx and better probs

98s, 96s, 97s a4s/o, a5s/o, 54s, 65s, Ajs/o, a2

Etc etc can all call the river.

I'm not sure exactly what you're theoretical plan is here? Just always check our bluff catchers and nuts and never bluff our missed draws?

I think we should be betting something, I guess it also depends how wide you're calling the 3bet pre

Peeling tight given the stacks but I'm probably opening pretty tight too. Most people on a Sunday aren't going to be 3b'ing me light here too often.

What about just betting to be called by a worse hand?

Although people do love stupid thin value bets in MTTs which is prolly because people call rivers way too light and generally speaking have fairly weak ranges late street in hands they've played passively.

I can't say I've found the same Dave, quite the opposite. MTT players on the whole don't make even standard value bets let alone light value bets. I'm talking msmtts and live, don't play hs online so maybe different up there with the ballas :)