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PokerStars Hand #118135941657: Tournament #924321252, $500+$30 USD Hold'em No Limit - Level I (20/40) - 2014/06/29 21:44:11 CET [2014/06/29 15:44:11 ET]
Table '924321252 1' 9-max Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: smerks (10020 in chips)
Seat 2: pads1161 (9920 in chips)
Seat 3: clues13 (19940 in chips)
Seat 4: jroozle (9780 in chips)
Seat 5: Rounder63 (10040 in chips)
Seat 6: KevBoyStar (9735 in chips)
Seat 7: gbmantis (10000 in chips)
Seat 8: MaxUdav (10280 in chips)
Seat 9: marko 2701 (10225 in chips)
marko 2701: posts small blind 20
smerks: posts big blind 40
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to pads1161 [Kc As]
pads1161: raises 40 to 80
clues13: folds
jroozle: folds
Rounder63: folds
KevBoyStar: folds
gbmantis: folds
MaxUdav: folds
marko 2701: folds
smerks: calls 40
*** FLOP *** [Kd 5s Qh]
smerks: checks
pads1161: checks
*** TURN *** [Kd 5s Qh] [Ah]
smerks: checks
pads1161: bets 120
smerks: raises 380 to 500
pads1161: calls 380
*** RIVER *** [Kd 5s Qh Ah] [2c]
smerks: bets 920
pads1161: folds

I would go bigger pre and bet/bet/bet, think you've made such a simple situation a really complicated one.

Sigh call river. We beat some of his vbetting range which is realistically 55 / J10 / QK / AQ A5  and bluffs.

If we check flop for deception it's not to fold this run out.

Call.

He prolly can have some missed flush draws and a bit of air that we can beat in addition to his value range.

disagree with both.

think b, b, b would be v v v v bad here. doubt theres even value betting flop/turn

Think it's fine to check back flop vs a random or fish but prob cbet vs a reg here. Given how played I don't really know what to do on the river. Seems utterly ridiculous to bluff the river once you've bet called the turn on his half. You really look like you have AQ here and you're expected to cbet AJ so it's not like he's trying to make you fold that type of hand.

Think I find a fold here too if I'm playing well enough.

Absolute million he has KQ A5 with this sizing/line

Why?

I'd deffo c/r them.

And go that size otr.

expand?

im lost

we will not show a profit vs his range by barreling flop and turn with our hand here.


i dont think its +ev to bet flop+turn, so betting flop+turn+river would probably be a bluff.

Pads what does your hand look like to villains when u c/call flops and same question for when u c/call turn too.

how? he defends the big from a minraise, surely all AQ/KQ/all heart kx broadway combos etcetc. Or do people just not play those hands this early?

as played I would call, I think we'd be right enough of the time. I don't see the point in the flop check to ultimately let the hand play this way.

Yes but when we make our decision on the flop we don't know that an ace will come on the turn lol

If I knew the run out I would b b b ofc. But when making the plan on the flop it's v unlikely it will come ace/rag turn/river..

KQ beats us, KJ probably calls 2, AQ probably one. Checking back gives him the chance to stab instead of folding out all his weak hands. I think checking back here is really nice, we arent going to win a big pot and dont really want to play one so bluffcatching is nice. Plus if it brings in a BDFD then we can get a bigger river bet out of him as our range looks weaker than if we had bet the flop. So few bad cards that protecting our equity becomes a minor issue.

3x pre.

massively on board with the flop check.

massively on board with the turn bet and call.

massively on board with the river fold.

Me and Pleno have finally met together on a NLHE tournament hand!! I feel all grown up.

OTR, realistically the only value hand we beat is AQ, and that's a pretty reasonable hand for him to have, usually when I can beat some (even thin) combo's of value bets I'm well on board for calling, but in line with that I also wanna give him some realistic combo's of bluffs and aside from QJ or QT (which do also have the pretty reasonable options of both calling or indeed folding the turn) I can't really give him many if any, I can also reasonably give his range JT and 555 so given its v early in a v long tournament I'd lean to the side of caution and fold.

*Edit - I guess he could have AK too, so that might be something to consider/make it a tiny bit closer.

I would suspect this was a very well played hand.

yeah really like this. good post rffdfyusdfsdgs

He is close to 10% to use this sizing with aq IMO

I think I'm on board. Only thing I don't like/understand is reasons for min raising pre with this stack/hand/position?

How many people fold river when they aren't playing well btw.

How comes? Is he basically just 555 or JT then if he's gonna go smaller cos he's blocking combos of Ax and 2pairs? AQ surely gonna look like the nuts OTR given he prolly expects you to bet both AK, and JT OTF (and 555 and AA ofc)

You've raised UTG joke early in a deep ante-less comp so I guess actually your range even after checking the flop is pretty strong OTR...

I should have boomed it when you see somebody bet 920/1kish it's way different than seeing a hh like this.

One thing is that he could very possibly have ak

He can have aaa, kkk, qqq easily too remember.

But yeah I think he is very jt/555 heavy

but he defended against a minraise a million bb deep, surely there are better hands to checkback than AK, KTs for example. We not cbetting our air on this flop or are ppls utg ranges in this like 6%?

Also regarding pre. I play a split sizings strategy to balance a few different things when I play 162 and higher. Lower comps I would even 4x depending on the comp

It's about his turn calling range though mate. He's just over folding way too much ott, all qx and upto kj. I feel like we max value from checking back flop/calling turn+ river and occasionally raising some turns/rivers depending on sizings.

i like the flop check, but only if you call the river bet.  he isn't putting you on AK when you check the flop so his value b range on river is slightly wider imo, would even include A5s. there's more bluffs there too, following through from a semibluff on turn with J9hh for example. foldiing will never be a bad decision here. calling is the gamble but i think there's enough non jt/55 combinations to show a profit here vs most players

checkback turn then, i think with this line good players can turn every Tx into a bluff with a decent frequency. I mean its a fairly moot point between delayed cbet and cbet and this is just on the cusp of a GTO call (assuming ur checking back KK/QQ....)

If he bet 400 maybe but he basically potted and when my most likely hand is aq here in my perceived range potting a5 would be v bad IMO

Good players wouldn't do a high variance bluff like this pre ante in a tournament. There's just literally no need. Stack preservation brah.

How high variance is his bluff if we want to fold this hand? Given that this hand makes up such a huge part of your value range (combos wise) on river?

I don't have answers, just question ;)

So havent read most of the convo, initial thought was raise more pre but you already covered why you dont etc as played river is a pretty meh fold, its too early to be bluff catching imo people just dont tend to do it and we are just crushed by his value range like he doesnt have aq there with this sizing imo but im torn between betting/checking flop, id probably just bet it as he is not folding anything on this flop such as gut shots, qx, kx, suited a2-a5 and we can just bet/fold flop, and i dont think we are going to get any value from anything else on the turn in terms of his just deciding to start bluffing given the blind levels, and its like prime time on a sunday and he will have a bunch of tables.

God in so fkn bad how don't I fold turn ?'!?!?!?!

Why exactly are we playing this hand pre if we're going to make top two, tremendously under-rep our hand and then fold?

if you go to a club, find the hottest girl in there, you dont even look at her and then she asks you to go home and in the taxi on the way there tells you she has a dick would you still go?

it applies here

I can't fold so I'd be fucked

Wait, you've lost me... How am I to find the hottest girl in the club if I can't look at her? Your mind works in a strange way :)

The point Pleno is making is, the decision to open pre-flop, and the decision to call or fold on the river are completely separate decision, the only slim correlation between the two is that they occurred in the same hand.

At no point during deciding to call a river bet should "well I played this hand pre-flop so I should call" be a rational thought process.

Ok, maybe I'll word this a little differently,

We open pre to 2x which I don't really go with since we're this deep etc etc, but hey whatever. Then we flop top pair and check back on a board that should really hit our opponent a fair bit, but fine I'm on board with the reasoning here. So we check to effectively bluff catch and cause our opponent to perhaps over-value hands. We then improve to a proper value hand, get to a river and decide it's too early in the tournament to bluff catch? Surely, by this logic, we want to be playing hands that can make the nuts in multiple ways, which AKos isn't particularly great at. However, if we want to play hands that become nutted hands post reasonably often, but want to play a small pot in these situations so open for the minimum? I'm seeing a lot of conflicting logic here that I don't follow.

<3

Lol mate.... You seem to have picked up the very same bad habits that you warned me about tourney players 18 months ago.

Think Pads thought process and logic is spot on here. Tough to fold river, even tougher to fold turn, but if anyone can do it, the best in the business can...

I snap responded to this post drunk, and I'm looking over it again drunker and although it does appear to be indicative sizing of the nuts, surely from a theory perspective we can't check back this hand and fold this river considering our perceived range and his actual range?

We are at the abso top of our range so if we are folding this, what are we calling?

post moarrr when durrrrunk

You write very well for a drunkard ... 😉

People REALLY think he is potting the river with a5/aq?!??

His range turns into jt (all combos) 55 (all combos) qq/kk/aa (discounted more latter to former) what bluffs are we giving him to make this a call assuming he obviously isn't value betting worse here?

If you really think he can be value getting worse here I don't kind giving you 2-1 for upto 1k to message him and ask him to boom it

Lol now I'm being berated on skype for calling turn :D

I think he can have some AQ some time here, but I don't think he hs any bluffs so I'm prolly out.

Surely if we have AK here we can also have AA and JT so not quite at the "top" of our range...

Love to see how many of the beraters (we'll go with it as a word...) fold on the turn in real time. Thread started a few days ago and still reading different viewpoints... in a timebank scenario I think it's very, very tough to put all the pieces together quickly enough (assuming it is a fold!) to find a fold.

sometimes you just gotta fold

http://weaktight.com/6824463

First thing Pleno has posted that I completely follow :p

I think there's lots of players that bluff here when they have zero showdown. and the only effective bluff u can make at this stage is with a bet this size. maybe there's less ppl doing it in a 530 than a 109, but there's a few regs I could name that I would EXPECT this move from. yr prob right though he isn't value betting w this sizing worse than you've said, maybe AQ once in a while, so the bluff frequency for most 530ers is prob low enough vs his nuts that a fold is totally fine. calling gosuoposum and a few others here though everytime