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DTD £250

20 minutes from end of live day 1d, we start hand with 180k, villain has 300k, average around 170k.

Villain is Renee Xie, only just to table but an hour previously she’d seen us hero call for tourney life with 4th pair. No other hand history of note.

At 2k/4k with 400 ante, we’re UTG with  Ad Qh and make it 8k.

Renee UTG+1 flats, BB comes in as well.

Flop  Aspades 5d 7c.

We cbet 12k, Renee calls, BB folds. Thought checking flop looked too strong/obvious and reckoned she would float really wide. Is that too small or should we check?

Turn  9d.

We check, thought leading again would fold out her bluffs. Or should we continue again?

She makes it 40k.

What do we do now? And on river when she shoves(likely?)?

c/c turn.

c/f river.

Think she can be value betting worse on the turn as well as bluffs.

With your image I'm not sure she bombs the river without having you beat.

Possibly c/c under 50K

Having Ad in our hand makes it more likely she has 777, don't think Renee would flat 55 in such an EP and certainly not A5-A9. Her turn bet is big, so she is probably trying to get value from a hand like ours and be protecting against the backdoor flush rather than v betting weaker aces. I personally bet even smaller on flop, and lead not much more on the turn. River action dependant on the card, but prob betting something in this particular spot.

Bet smaller flop. Def betting turn. Problem is you have now induced a bet on the turn by checking it.
Not played with her much so think i just abc it until i have reason to do otherwise. She could have AK here a lot IMO.

I think betting turn on the smaller side is good as she can have some worse Ax, maybe AJ-AT and some small suited Aces, and in general it does make the hand a lot easier to play which does help.

As played though if you check i feel like you're probably gonna be better off folding now to such a huge sizing from this player. I don't think you're gonna see a ton of flop floats in this spot tbh, probably none. Worse hands for value that size this way seem thin on the ground. And if she does have bluffs then you're going to have to hold on to a river jam too since it'll be pretty obv you're capped. I think it's too optimistic overall.

how much smaller?

he's betting 12k into 30...

12 into 27.6.
Yeah suppose thats a decent size on reflection.
I still bet turn. 25k perhaps

I was just about to say what greekstein did, not sure how much smaller we should go here, we're already a way less than half pot. Flop seems fine tbh.

This is a pretty polarizing bet from renee imo, and I find it unlikely that, if we call this bet, she would fire the river again on a pure airball. I think renee can have 55 here, as well as 99 and 77, and possibly AK, but thats pretty much all the value hands she can have that would bet this much ott. I'm kinda finding it hard to see what renee would randomly float with here though, and then mash 40k. Bearing in mind she's flatted utg +2 and we've given her a pretty tight range as such, what makes a bluff this big? Leaning towards check folding to this sizing tbh, the more I think about it.

Personally, though, I would just continue on the turn. As I've said, im not sure how wide she can be floating here, and hands like 88 have picked up a little equity which might want to call a small bet, which would also get any Ax hands to stay involved. I'd go for like 24-28k.

Also in before pleno "trivial min bet - jam" ;)

99 seems a likely hand here? We have to beat here now I think as a load of her range contains one of your cards. Ad.

It's a really dry flop against  utg raises if you do flop a set here too. So checking a set is not way out of line.

My plan was check calling turn, check calling river if brick. However her large turn bet size really confused me!

I now dismissed 55,77,99 and as Sunday8pm said I don’t put A5, A7 or A9 in her range, so put her on AT, AJ, AQ or some combi draws like 67d, 78d or even 34d, 46d, 68d. Really didn’t want to flat and let these hands hit or face difficult river shove so thought I’d raise and take it down! Now my thinking was couldn’t raise to 80k with 80k back, so shoved!

I’m posting my honest thought process with knowledge that my play may well get abuse but I genuinely want to learn from these situations even if they seem the most obvious or basic mistakes. so go gentle please!

Interestingly enough Renee called after a minute with A9h!

Well I couldn't put any one on that unless your image is hyper loon bag, but she now has next best to a set so her 40 k seems perfect. 50p

Ok, I think we need to have a better look at renees potential range here. I don't think your thought process really takes into account how her range develops through the streets, which is the mistake. Pre, you've opened utg, obviously you know, as does renee, that you should be opening pretty tight from this position. Renee also knows that she shouldn't be flatting particularly wide here, so we can narrow her range down to something like KQ, A9 ss+, A10+, 22-JJ, maybe some other suited broadway hands, maybe some lower Axs.

Flop is pretty dry, and we bet a little under half pot. The A obviously hits a fair bit of your utg opening range, but you would also be expected to c-bet this board with pretty much everything you've opened utg. Renee flats, with the BB behind, so we can narrow her range to 55, 77-JJ, A9+, maybe some lower suited Axs.

We then check, and she bets 40k. We block all the A+ flush draw combos since we have the Ad, so that eliminates them. There are no semi-bluffs in this range. There are all three sets below AA, A9, and A10-AK, and maybe some lower Axs. With a bet this size, in a vacuum, I would get rid of all the lower Ax hands, 88, 10/10 and JJ. So, facing this bet, we've narrowed renee's range down to a set, A9, or A10+. I'm struggling to find any random bluffs she can have given board texture etc, so this range seems pretty reasonable.

This is my logic for folding the turn, because we don't do that well against that range and im not convinced renee bets A10-AJ that strongly. This is also why I'd bet the turn, because we can safely and happily fold to a raise, and get value from all the lower Ax hands she might have, as well as maybe get another street from 88, 10/10 and JJ, and avoid being put in this very tricky situation.

Think betting the flop is pretty bad. Especially if we eliminate 55 from her range I really don't like it.

As played vs this siZing I think turn is pretty easy fold.really not sure why we'd ever bet this flop though.

Interesting she turns up with A9. Bad read from me. Difficult to advise in PHA on exact correct thing to do in-game as we all have different images. I personally find myself betting into every flop when I have the lead. It just suits the way unfeeling comfortable at the table, I make lots of 1/4 pot bluffs on flop and a flop like this one I may well include a 1/4 pot bet to balance. Especially with stack sizes.

Reasons for checking > betting?

I'm like we're 3way with a random BB in the pot. Even if we don't feel we can get 3 streets from worse keeping the lead to be able to decide how big those 2 streets were gonna be seems good. Maybe we can get 3 streets from worse Ax too in a live tourn with our slightly cray image as described.

I also just feel like it makes it way easier to b/f in a 3way pot and that c/calling could get sticky, though i'm not sure if ease of play is a good justification for wanting to choose one line over the other.

Yeah I try not to auto pilot cyber but especially live it's tempting.

We have enough combos that we can check aq IMO. Sets/2pairs/ak also having aq is really bad vs Renee as it blocks one of her main bluff catchers.

I disagree about not expecting her to peel 55 pre I just expect most live players to call all pairs regardless of stack size (could be fine ofc) but I wouldn't expect a9/7/5.

Feel like by checking we sometimes induce a bet from kq/Broadway's kind of hand that will v v v rarely float on this spot. Also if one does have ax then we can do larger sizings ott/ r and get paid and also allow people to make flush/straight draws and take big bet turn / check call river lines.

Also it will be extremely hard to get multiple streets of value here so if our perhaps sole street of value is going to be 1/4 pot it feels like a waste and way too lazy to just write off as auto piloting.