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Poker Forums => Poker Hand Analysis => Topic started by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 01:49:39 AM



Title: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 01:49:39 AM
25/25 Edinburgh. £220 buy in. 25k start stack.

Blinds 50-100. Third hand, so no real info, other than the guy who 3 bets seems to know what he's doing, caller less so. Neither player knows me, as far as I know.

UTG, I make it 250.

UTG+2 makes it 600

CUT OFF calls.

I make it 2075

One fold, cut off calls.

Flop 2d 2h 9h

Do we just bet, bet bet here? If so how much? Any value in checking the flop? We have  Ahrt


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Ironside on October 12, 2014, 01:59:36 AM
get it all in cold deck when he flips the pocket 9s and river the SOB


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 02:05:06 AM
get it all in cold deck when he flips the pocket 9s and river the SOB

So just jam 23k in?


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: TL900 on October 12, 2014, 02:54:26 AM
id just plan to bet/bet/jam vs described villian yea, his range is prob pretty TT-QQ heavy so id be a little wary of those cards

3k into 5, 6500 into 11, 13500 into 24 seems good


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: TL900 on October 12, 2014, 02:55:59 AM
meh, changed my mind. if hes a monkey who can just have QJs here then checking flop seems cool. checking flop > checking turn imo


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 02:58:52 AM
Lol, cheers Tom. I've had 4 different conversations about this hand in the last hour and they have all said something different. Thinks it's fairly interesting.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: TL900 on October 12, 2014, 03:05:35 AM
Going back to option 1 cuz I know thats what id do, it sucks when he checks back a street somewhere (which I think he should with basically his entire range that isnt a boat) and we cant get stacks in its not like we look weak even when we check after c4b 3rd hand of a tourney our range is pretttttttttttttttty strong. Maybe people just take off here when you check I'm not too sure. Exploit and bet imo.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 03:10:59 AM
If you want to play your range vs his range to maximum effect: bet around 3.5k, then around 6.5k, then jam for last ~13k. This is the most powerful way to play, and it is usually the best.

However, it might not be best right at the start of the tournament. Your opponent may not want to go broke after three hands and so may find some good hero folds if you make it clear you are threatening his entire stack. So you could consider checking a street or betting very small each street, just to let him know only half his stack is at threat. Then take that half stack away from him.

The psychology of it being only three hands into the tournament makes a lot of difference here IMO. I'd try to size villain up, and make some guesses. If I think he has travelled to get here, this is not his local casino etc then I'd probably play to get half his stack. If he looks like a cautious older guy I'd do the same. On the other hand, if it feels like he is a local, he looks comfortable etc then I might choose to go for his entire stack. He's probably got some mates in the casino he can go and tell about how he got his JJ coolered by AA on the third hand, before re-entering ten minutes later.

I would not be cautious about any card peeling off the deck. If he hits a full house with his TT, JJ or whatever then he deserves my chips for making such a skillful outdraw.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 03:24:26 AM
Cheers Stu.

Cautious older man. Local casino, seemed pretty spot on at the time. Maybe a bit nervous. Never seen him before, but I don't imagine he plays many 'big' comps.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: shipitgood on October 12, 2014, 03:29:31 AM
Going to be easy to get it in by river, so i'd play it like HB said.

Was really interesting stuff about the psychology of it being so early in the comp and type of player involved.

Nice post HB!


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 03:32:13 AM
Cautious older man. Local casino, seemed pretty spot on at the time. Maybe a bit nervous. Never seen him before, but I don't imagine he plays many 'big' comps.

In that case, allow him to keep about half of his stack. He sounds like a nice fellow. So I'd let him know that he does not have to worry since only half his stack is at threat. I'd do this by either betting all three streets small and friendly, or I'd check the flop and then bet turn and river with more greedy sizings.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 03:48:04 AM
After a little further thought, don't check the flop. Go for half his stack by bet-bet-betting, using a small sizing. The reason this is superior is because it allows you flexibility to change plans later in the hand. For example, if you get a read. When he calls your flop bet you might get some gut feeling that he has KK/QQ rather than TT/JJ. Or you just get a sense that he is in stubborn and sticky mode and is going all the way. Then you can switch plans and bet bigger to get most of his chips. If you check the flop you don't get that option.

If two lines both seem good then choose the one that retains more future options.

Just to note something. This is such a lovely spot to play, because you do not have to spend ANY energy at all worrying that he has you beaten. If he outdraws you on the turn or river then just be happy for him. This means that every bit of your focus can be on trying to work out how he is feeling. You don't need to plan ahead for various board run outs, you just need to keep your eyes on him and make guesses about how much he is prepared to lose right this second.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 03:58:54 AM
If we bet say 2.6k, and he calls, is that better than check calling a similar bet on the flop?

Is checking a mistake because he can check back?


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: cambridgealex on October 12, 2014, 04:04:18 AM
id just plan to bet/bet/jam vs described villian yea, his range is prob pretty TT-QQ heavy so id be a little wary of those cards

3k into 5, 6500 into 11, 13500 into 24 seems good

This for me.

#nomercy


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 04:07:03 AM
id just plan to bet/bet/jam vs described villian yea, his range is prob pretty TT-QQ heavy so id be a little wary of those cards

3k into 5, 6500 into 11, 13500 into 24 seems good

This for me.

#nomercy

I'll come back to this when stu has replied to the above if that's ok.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 04:16:58 AM
If we bet say 2.6k, and he calls, is that better than check calling a similar bet on the flop?

Is checking a mistake because he can check back?

Not really. If he checks back then you can bet the turn and river using fairly greedy sizings, so you still get a semi-decent amount of his stack. Weirdly enough, the real problem with checking is if he bets, especially if he bets half-pot or less. When you call his bet, he might then check-back the turn. You can bet the river of course, but the problem is that you can't then get half his stack unless you over-bet the pot on the river. You have a read that he is likely a cautious old chap, so you don't want to confront him with something violent like an overbet - he may be scared and fold.

Same issue if villain bets the flop and turn for ~half pot and then makes a cautious check back on the river. You have failed to get some chips from him that he probably would have been prepared to lose to you.

Of course, you can check-raise him on the flop to prevent this. But then you are telling him that all his chips might be at risk. And the only reason to start by checking the flop is because you have decided you don't want him to think this.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 04:29:26 AM
id just plan to bet/bet/jam vs described villian yea, his range is prob pretty TT-QQ heavy so id be a little wary of those cards

3k into 5, 6500 into 11, 13500 into 24 seems good

This for me.

#nomercy

You mean boy. I bet he's a lovely old fellow - don't try to bust him before he's even ordered his cup of tea.

Yeah, playing to felt him (3k: 6.5k: jam, or similar) is definitely the best way to play the hand in most spots. The only time to go for less is if you have a read. In this case OP has a read that villain is old, cautious, a little nervous and that this tournament is probably a big deal to him. Plus, I'd make the general read that most players really don't want to bust this early in a tournament. These two things might make hero at least consider being a bit less greedy.

But if you want to go for the lot then I wouldn't fault you in the slightest.

#grandadbasher #mercyisfortheweak


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 04:31:16 AM
Brilliant reply, thank you.

I think having the ace of hearts has skewed my view on this hand a bit, as in him having heart combos is very unlikely. I've been thinking about this hand for hours now, and which way would have been best. And I've obviously posted because I feel that I played it wrong. In particular the turn and river.

For the record, I checked the flop, and he bet 2k. I called.  My reason for calling, is I feel now that he has a pair, probably a decent pair, and never has a house or a 2. The turn was the 8h. Now I should be betting?

Also, if I had bet the flop, and got called, I'm still betting the turn and jamming all rivers?

I appreciate its 4 in the morning so no rush for a reply.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Honeybadger on October 12, 2014, 04:42:51 AM
Yeah, checking the flop has unfortunately worked out really badly for you here. First, he's bet an disappointingly small amount. And then a card has turned that may cause him to check back. Without good reasons, I don't usually like taking out of tempo lines such as c/c flop, donk turn. But here it might be good to donk the turn. You've ended up in a bit of a pickle because it seems there is now a good chance you will not get enough chips from him. Your best way of trying to rectify the situation could well be to bet the turn.

This is another reason to start by betting the flop rather than checking. You choose the sizing, based on whether you are going for the lot or going for around half. But bet.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 12, 2014, 04:51:32 AM
Thanks again, the turn messed things up for me here (along with my check on the flop obv)

It's weird, you and tom both changed minds a couple of times before settling on decisions,and other conversations got a bit confused before final decisions were made, so hope you can see that in game, I struggled to work out what was the best line.

I think I was more scared the turn had put him off his hand more than it has helped him. And having made that decision, I then checked, which I think is a mistake, given that I think he has a strong hand, probably one that he will sigh call the turn with, and poss the river.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: GreekStein on October 12, 2014, 06:25:27 AM
betbetbet


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: nirvana on October 12, 2014, 10:23:11 AM
I also think it's important that he expects you to bet nearly all flops given preflop situ and has probably (even subconsciously) already decided he will at least call all flop bets on dry boards like this. Just veering into FPS to disappoint he'm I think


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: Rexas on October 12, 2014, 10:53:28 AM
Right, first of all, I'd like an explanation as to Why we're in the tournament at the third hand and not still in nandos. If the answer is "we haven't been to nandos", I'd be aiming to bust asap to go to A&E via nandos.

I don't particularly like checking flop here, mainly for what stu said about keeping control over the size of the pot, but I think this has been looked at enough itt. However, on check calling and seeing this turn card, I'm a pretty massive fan of donking. We regain control of the betting on a card which is going to get checked back loads, but which isn't going to get folded much. I mean, if he does fold, he's going to check back and likely fold river anyway, leaving us with a depressingly small pot. I also expect most reasonably regular live players to expect you to bet a flush draw otf, and noones folding overpairs anyway. Can also pretty safely bet any river with the Ah, and fold happily to a raise.

People don't donk enough imo.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: muckthenuts on October 12, 2014, 01:23:58 PM
Yeah what basically everyone has said. I think it's good to keep things as simple as possible in live comps. Most of the time this spot will be best approached as going betbetbet for value, then probably folding if raised.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: cambridgealex on October 12, 2014, 03:29:56 PM
Oh if had your image Stu, then it's a different story!

People don't like folding to a young'un re-re-raising at any stage of a tournament so I usually go greedy...


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: pleno1 on October 12, 2014, 03:45:34 PM
Small off so he peeks bdfds:occasionally tries to raise us off our hand. If he calls then go for 3.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: lucky_scrote on October 13, 2014, 02:06:56 AM
This is 2014, people won't stick everything in with TT here. He is aware that if you stick the lot in on the river that he's going to make a fold a lot.

However I still think that bet bet bet is the best line because he is heavily weighted to having pp's here. I wouldn't necessarily say he has to have TT-QQ a lot. Some recs will happily have 77.

I really doubt you're going to get him to bluff if you check to him, nor are you more likely to get paid if you check the flop. I go bet bet bet but I won't set him in, leave him a few k so that he can "get his monies worth".


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: dreenie on October 14, 2014, 03:34:40 PM
If you check the flop and he then bets I would be raising it.... If he is a cautious player he would have checked back... by betting we know now we will get paid so make it 8350 and when he calls we jam the turn.

Otherwise it's bet bet bet like everyone else has said.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: dreenie on October 14, 2014, 03:39:30 PM
And not really ssure how u come to the assumption he is a tight player cos he's old and nervous?

He's just cold called a 4 bet after 3 hands of sitting down and led into u when u have checked. U actually don't have much idea of how he plays, lots of times he could just be clicking or genuinely have it by check raising you soon find out and u win a nice pot if he folds but most importantly u don't lose a big pot by 2nd guessing down the streets which imo looks like ur doing atm.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 14, 2014, 03:43:23 PM
And not really ssure how u come to the assumption he is a tight player cos he's old and nervous?

He's just cold called a 4 bet after 3 hands of sitting down and led into u when u have checked. U actually don't have much idea of how he plays, lots of times he could just be clicking or genuinely have it by check raising you soon find out and u win a nice pot if he folds but most importantly u don't lose a big pot by 2nd guessing down the streets which imo looks like ur doing atm.

I said he seemed cautious. Not tight 😀


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: celtic on October 14, 2014, 03:48:28 PM
Also, given what's happened on the flop, I wasn't really second guessing, I was 99% certain I was ahead.

I did play the hand wrong tho.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: kinboshi on October 14, 2014, 03:50:33 PM
Was he nervous, or just excited to be sat on the same table as you?


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: dreenie on October 14, 2014, 04:20:15 PM
Was he nervous, or just excited to be sat on the same table as you?

Lmao  Ad


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: SuuPRlim on October 14, 2014, 06:54:24 PM
yeh defo in for a small turn donk here, he might check back JJ with a heart or something. Can't see him folding an OP here either at this point, gets the lead in the hand back which is good because its not good news to lose two streets of value here which is what you might end up doing with a turn check.

Agree with nirvana - just FPS checking the flop, poker can be a beautifully simplistic game at times; GOOD HAND = BET.
Sometimes it's complex, but not this time, not at the moment at least.


Title: Re: Aces Early.
Post by: AlexMartin on October 17, 2014, 03:17:14 AM
Versus anyone younger than 25 id bet flop 100% of the time expecting to get floated by everything/raised/spewed at a lot. The 30-50 bracket im checking flop because i think you get a better 2 streets on many turns. V this guy just start unloading. AgeRange.